We have a 15-game slate on our hands, but there’s not a ton of pitching to go around. Luckily, there’s one significantly under-priced curveball specialist (you can probably guess who that is!) and a few other brand names who have not pitched to their full potential in 2018, or are over-the-hill. I believe there are two specific strategies (one for cash, one for GPP) that I will outline below. The main stacks to focus on include common ones like the Red Sox, Cubs, and Astros, but also look to the Royals and Rangers as contrarian stacks going against some below-average pitchers.
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Pitcher
Lance McCullers (HOU): $9,600 @ OAK
I’ll be the first to admit that I blew it with giving you advice on starting Jordan Lyles last week. However, I am very confident in this pick. Our resident expert in fantasy baseball, Mr. Bobby Sylvester, has coined McCullers as a top three starter this week. McCullers has been his usual self this year, striking out about a batter per inning while maintaining a sub-4 ERA. His FIP and xFIP marks are slightly better, so if anything, he is due for some positive regression. Even better, The Coliseum is ranked dead last in park factors for runs and home runs. This means that McCullers has a chance to have an incredible outing. I have no problem with him being my SP1, especially at what seems like a discounted value with the mediocre pitching that abounds tonight.
Jon Gray (COL): $8,000 @PHI
I’ll also be the first one to admit that Jon Gray has had a rough 2018, but Fangraphs actually paints a pretty decent picture of his season with a 3.21 xFIP and 3.12 FIP. His ridiculous .379 BABIP and 64% strand rate show that he has been quite unlucky. He also has an incredible 10.41 K/9, and he’s away from Coors Field for this start. Further, the Phillies are in the bottom third of the league in both runs and homers, which should give you confidence with him as your SP2 in GPP.
Other Notables
Tanner Roark (WAS): $7,000 @ NYY – Don’t be too afraid of the Bronx Bombers. Didi Gregorius has fallen off a cliff, and they were just held to a shutout by Seth Lugo and some relievers. Makes for a great SP2 in cash games.
Catcher
Willson Contreras (CHC): $3,800 @ MIL\
Contreras has had quite the power outage in 2018, but we all know the power is there. He’s also facing Chase Anderson, who has lasted six innings just once in his past six starts. He hits both righties and lefties the same, so there is no need to consider that Anderson is a righty. Even with the power outage, he is hitting .344 over the past two weeks.
Other Notables
Wilson Ramos (TB): $3,500 vs. TOR – Producing well and will hit in the middle of the order against an inconsistent Jaime Garcia
Kurt Suzuki (ATL): $3,400 vs. NYM – Exact same explanation above – just switch Garcia with Zach Wheeler
Robinson Chirinos (LAD): $3,200 @ LAD – Going against a guy just called up from Triple-A, who had negative points in his last start
First Base
Yonder Alonso (CLE): $3,600 @ CWS
Alonso has been hitting quite well over the past month, stroking .284 with 14 RBI. While he has just two homers over that span, we know that he can hit home runs in bunches. Alonso has a major positive split hitting against righties, and the Indians are facing all righties this week, allowing Alonso to get in a groove. Edwin Encarnacion is also still out with an ankle injury, so he should be hitting fourth or fifth against Mr. Gas Can himself, James Shields.
Other Notables
Jose Abreu (CHW): $4,000 vs. CLE – has been his usual self this year, hitting ten bombs with a .295 average. Just doesn’t have the price tag that comes with those numbers
Second Base
Whit Merrifield (KC): $3,900 vs. KC
Merrifield does everything well except hit homers, which is hard to do at Kauffman Stadium. He’s going up against Sal Romano, who has a 10.72 ERA over the past month, and he is always looking to steal a base. He succeeds too, going 14-for-18 in the SB department. These two variables swing in Whit’s favor, and he should make for a nice underrated play as the 14th most expensive second baseman.
Other Notables
Dee Gordon (SEA): $3,800 vs. LAA – Mr. Fleet of Foot seems to be undervalued, even in his current slump
Third Base
Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,600 @ LAD
I’ve written a lot about Beltre in this space, only for him to be bit by the injury bug. Beltre seems finally healthy now and getting back into the swing of things. Beltre is capable of a multi-homer game, especially against a guy like Caleb Ferguson. He makes for a nice contrarian stack play with Chirinos and Nomar Mazara, and Jurickson Profar.
Other Notables
Anthony Rendon (WAS): $3,900 @ NYY – Undervalued here; hits .314 against lefties in a park that is one of the better ones for hitting
Matt Carpenter (STL): $3,800 vs. SD – Starters for this game haven’t been named as of this writing, but he’s hitting .330 over the past month with 5 bombs
Shortstop
Shortstop is an absolute wasteland for value plays, so my recommendation is to go for a shortstop-eligible player on the Sawx. Both Brock Holt ($3,600) and Eduardo Nunez ($3,600) are solid mid-tier plays against a young starter on the Orioles in David Hess. Further, Camden Yards is the third-best to knock home runs at. Not that Holt and Nunez are going to be hitting homers, but they can certainly be on base when one of their teammates socks a homer.
Other Notables
Jurickson Profar (TEX): $3,500 @ LAD – keeps the Rangers contrarian stack going, and Profar has three homers over the past two weeks
Outfield
Carlos Gomez (TB): $3,200 vs. TOR
Gomez has the perception of being one of the least popular guys in baseball, but he should be your friend on Tuesday night. He has the perfect matchup to break out of his slump, as he is 13-for-37 lifetime against Jaime Garcia, with two doubles and a triple. He pairs nicely with Wilson Ramos in a contrarian stack.
Adam Jones (BAL): $3,500 vs. BOS
I seem to write about Jones here every other week, but he is continually undervalued, and he is 10-for-30 lifetime against Eduardo Rodriguez. Not only is he hitting .333 against Eduardo, but he’s also hitting .333 over the past two weeks. Go for Mr. Boring.
Jason Heyward (CHC): $3,600 @ MIL
Heyward has finally woken up from his two-year slump to learn how to hit again, batting .338 over the past month. He is either hitting near the bottom of the order, or in the 2-hole, so he is not getting too many RBI opportunities. Of course, as I write this, he hits a run-scoring single. However, he should have plenty of run-scoring opportunities if he is hitting near the top of the lineup. Plus, who could forget this?
Jason Heyward walk off grand slam, now we've seen everything pic.twitter.com/AslpxDChQU
— Red Line Radio (@RedLineRadio) June 7, 2018
Be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB. Best of luck!
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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.
