FantasyBeast15 breaks down value plays for Saturday’s slate of FanDuel MLB contests.
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Here’s a look at the top value plays for Saturday on FanDuel. I will do my best to keep the top plays as cheap as possible but will include higher-priced players if their projections far exceed their salary-based expectation.
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Pitcher
Lance McCullers (HOU): $9,200 vs. KCR
Just a week ago, I refused to play McCullers in a matchup against the Royals. I had concerns with McCullers’ lack of big strikeout performances. I also had concerns about the matchup, specifically the Royals low strikeout rate. This week, I’ll love McCullers in the “same matchup.” The difference is mainly due to the ballpark. Kauffman Stadium, the Royals home ballpark, is a bottom-six park for strikeouts. Minute Maid Park, the Astros home ballpark, is a top-five park for strikeouts. This is a big factor in the Royals’ low season-long strikeout rate as they play half of their games at a park that suppresses strikeouts. McCullers hasn’t had a double-digit strikeout game since April 17, so I’m still slightly concerned about his lack of big games, but the park will certainly help this time around. As the biggest favorite, tied for the lowest opposing team run total, and with the strikeout park on his side, McCullers is my favorite value pitcher. He’ll give you more than a $2,000 discount from the top aces on the slate.
Catcher/First Base
Chris Davis (BAL): $2,000 vs. ATL
Davis will face Julio Teheran in SunTrust Park. Teheran has struggled against lefties throughout his career, allowing a .342 wOBA to lefties while limiting righties to a .269 wOBA. Davis will hold the platoon advantage and has massive power upside in this matchup. He’s also priced at the minimum, making him the top value play at C/1B.
Second Base
Yoan Moncada (CWS): $2,800 vs. OAK
Moncada will face Daniel Mengden in Guaranteed Rate Field. Moncada has struggled recently, striking out multiple times in six of his past ten games, but is now underpriced for his talent. Mengden has overachieved a bit this season, recording a 4.06 ERA, but a 4.66 SIERA. The White Sox are not a great offense, but can certainly get to Mengden. If he’s leading off, I’m very interested in Moncada in both cash games and tournaments for his price.
Third Base
Adrian Beltre (TEX): $2,900 vs. MIN
Beltre will face Jake Odorizzi in Target Field. The Rangers have a team run total of 4.5 runs, and Beltre should bat 4th, giving him a great chance to drive in runs. Odorizzi is a career reverse-splits pitcher, so not having the platoon advantage is actually an advantage to Beltre. Odorizzi has allowed a .291 wOBA to lefties, but a .330 wOBA to righties throughout his career. At $2,900, Beltre is a solid value for both cash games and tournaments.
Shortstop
Addison Russell (CHC): $2,600 vs. CIN
Russell has been batting fifth recently, giving him value simply based on his lineup position. The Cubs are one of the top offenses of the day against Anthony DeSclafani in Great American Ballpark. It’s a good park for power, giving Russell an increased chance at a home run. He missed Friday’s game due to injury, but it doesn’t sound serious. If Russell missed Saturday’s game, I’ll likely pay up for Trevor Story and find my value plays elsewhere.
Outfield
Avisail Garcia (CWS): $2,000 vs. OAK
Garcia was activated from the disabled list yesterday and hasn’t seen him price return to where it should be. He’s priced at the minimum. Much like Moncada, he’s underpriced for his talent and is in a solid matchup. I believe he’s about $1,200 underpriced. Garcia will bat second against Mengden and is one of the top cash game value plays.
