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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 10

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 10

The closer market has indeed been busy recently, and that doesn’t figure to change any time soon. The beginning of June should be a signal to fantasy owners to begin keeping a very close watch on the standings to identify the teams that will be buyers and sellers at the July 31 trade deadline.

Most of the teams near the top of the standings in the AL have relatively stable closers, but teams like the Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals, and White Sox that 10 or more games out of first place in their division are bound to be sellers over the next two months. In the NL, the standings are a bit tighter, and that’s where we could see several teams shifting in the market as they decide whether they’ve got the goods to come back in the second half. In the meantime, several teams provided some clarity at the closer position this past week, which is reflected in the rankings below.

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Team (Closer) Current Rank Previous Rank +/-
Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel) 1 1
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 2 2
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 3 4 +1
Rockies (Wade Davis) 4 5 +1
Nationals (Sean Doolittle) 5 6 +1
Mariners (Edwin Diaz) 6 3 -3
Reds (Raisel Iglesias) 7 8 +1
Padres (Brad Hand) 8 9 +1
Pirates (Felipe Vazquez) 9 7 -2
Mets (Jeurys Familia) 10 10
Cubs (Brandon Morrow) 11 11
Royals (Kelvin Herrera) 12 12
Indians (Cody Allen) 13 13
Brewers (Corey Knebel) 14 14
Diamondbacks (Brad Boxberger) 15 15
Astros (Ken Giles) 16 16
Cardinals (Bud Norris) 17 17
Giants (Hunter Strickland) 18 18
Braves (Arodys Vizcaino) 19 19
A’s (Blake Treinen) 20 20
Tigers (Shane Greene) 21 21
Twins (Fernando Rodney) 22 22
Rangers (Keone Kela) 23 23
Phillies (Seranthony Dominguez) 24 25 +1
Rays (Committee) 25 24 -1
Marlins (Kyle Barraclough) 26 26
Orioles (Brad Brach) 27 27
Blue Jays (Ryan Tepera) 28 28
Angels (Committee) 29 29
White Sox (Committee) 30 30

 

Seranthony Dominguez (PHI)
Phillies manager Gabe Kapler hasn’t officially designated Dominguez as his closer, but the rookie pitcher picked up his second save of the season Thursday to go along with six holds and a win. Dominguez has thrown 13.2 shutout innings with just two hits allowed and 15 strikeouts without a single walk. If he’s still available, he’s worth adding, but I wouldn’t empty the FAAB war chest for him.

First of all, Dominguez has just 30.1 innings of experience above the Class A+ minor league level — all of it since the beginning of this season. In addition, there is nothing in his profile to suggest that he can keep this up, despite his remarkable run to date. He exhibited significant control issues during his four seasons in the Rookie leagues, and he issued a 4.33 BB/9 last year in A-Ball.

His current 0.74 BABIP, 100% strand rate, and 63.3 percent contact rate are all unsustainable. While his 18.2 percent swinging strike rate and 65.1 percent first strike rate are both excellent, his 27 percent chase rate (O-Swing%) indicates that his breaking stuff doesn’t fool hitters.

Dominguez is a two-pitch hurler who is currently throwing 98 MPH gas a little more than 75 percent of the time. His secondary pitch is a slider that comes in around 87 MPH but isn’t particularly nasty, and he has a “show me” changeup at 90 MPH that he rarely throws. Once the book on him gets around the league, and he begins to face hitters a second and third time around, we’re bound to see some regression to the mean. Of course, this all assumes the job is his to lose, something I am not entirely convinced of just yet.

Kyle Barraclough (MIA)
There is no question that Brad Ziegler is out of the closer job for the Marlins. He picked up back to back losses this past week, and he was shaky for just about all of May, so it was only a matter of time before manager Don Mattingly was forced to make a move.

Ziegler made 13 appearances from May 1 through June 1 and tossed 11.1 innings for a record of 0-2 with six saves and a blown save. He had an ERA of 8.74 with a 1.95 WHIP, six strikeouts, four walks, and three home runs allowed. Opposing hitters compiled a batting average of .367 against him in May.

Barraclough easily has the best profile for the closer job in the Marlins’ bullpen. To date this season, Barraclough has made 25 appearances and pitched 24.1 innings to compile a record of 0-2 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and seven holds. He’s held opposing hitters to a batting average of just .215, and he’s striking them out at the rate of 11.56 Ks per nine innings supported by a .314 BABIP.

As good as Barraclough has been, there are a few concerns that may threaten his effectiveness going forward. While he can boast a current strikeout rate of 27 percent (career rate is 31.1%) supported by an 11.9 percent swinging strike rate, he has a long history of control problems. He is currently walking batters 15 percent of the time (5.55 BB/9); just a little higher than his 14.6 percent career mark (5.52 BB/9). Barraclough’s BABIP of .130 and strand rate (LOB%) of 90.5 percent are unsustainable, so it’s just a matter of time before his 4.07 xFIP begins to erode, and the inevitable regression to the mean begins to normalize his number profile.

The only potential challenger to Barraclough’s reign as the closer is Drew Steckenrider. Steckenrider’s current skill metrics include a 10.9 percent swinging strike rate and a 31.6 percent overall strikeout rate, which combined with a 29.1 percent hard-hit rate and 35.2 percent flyball rate limits hard contact and reduces a hitter’s ability to threaten with the long ball. However, Steckenrider has a history of control problems and the occasional meltdown, including a 10-day stretch in May during which he allowed 11 earned runs in just three innings pitched.

It’s also worth noting that Barraclough is eligible for arbitration after this season. Although the team has contractual control of Barraclough for another two years, the cost-conscious Marlins may want to prevent him from adding saves to his statistical profile, which will only cost the team more money at the arbitration table. Steckenrider still has two years to go before he’s eligible for arbitration, so adding saves now won’t have the same effect on his contract cost for a couple of years.

Then again, adding a few saves to Barraclough’s resume would also make him a worthy trade piece who will bring a better return in a trade. The bottom line here is that Barraclough is the pitcher to own from the Marlins right now. If you’ve got the roster room to add Steckenrider too, it may pay off for you sooner than later.

Felipe Vazquez (PIT)
Pirates manager Clint Hurdle issued a statement Friday in support of closer Felipe Vazquez whose last 10 days have been a nightmare. Hurdle said he’s not considering a change at closer and he assured reporters that the pitcher’s recent rough stretch is unrelated to the forearm discomfort Vazquez experienced last weekend when things went sour on the mound.

From May 20 through to May 31, Vazquez made six appearances in which he totaled 3.2 IP and allowed nine runs (seven earned) on 12 hits with three walks and just two strikeouts. His ERA during the span was 17.18 with a 4.20 WHIP. Thursday’s outing was the third consecutive appearance of the week by Vazquez, who reported some discomfort in his throwing arm last weekend.

Hurdle took some heat from members of the local media who questioned his use of Vazquez for three consecutive days after he was forced to leave a game last Sunday with a sore arm. Of course, fantasy owners of Vazquez only care about whether he will keep the closer job. Right now, there is no reason think Vazquez will lose it, but it would be wise to be prepared in the event Vazquez has another significant meltdown or his forearm injury becomes something severe enough to land him on the DL.

The pitcher with the best skill set in the Pirates’ bullpen is Richard Rodriguez. He currently has a 2.18 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 32 strikeouts in 20.2 IP. Rodriguez is currently carrying a 2.26 xFIP, which indicates that his performance is quite sustainable. His 15.2 percent swinging strike rate and 72.9 percent first strike rate support that as well.

The only rap against Rodriguez is that he lacks experience in high leverage situations. However, it’s important to keep in mind that Rodriguez is 28 years old and began his professional baseball career in 2010 with the Astros. So, while he may not have high leverage experience, he absolutely has plenty of time in the game; enough so Hurdle can insert him the closer role if necessary.

As good as Rodriguez is, both Michael Feliz and Edgar Santana could also be tapped by Hurdle, who isn’t afraid to take a committee approach either. For now, fantasy owners of Vazquez should acquire Rodriguez on speculation and monitor both Feliz and Santana in the event Vazquez ends up being replaced.

Zach Britton (BAL)
Britton started his minor league rehab assignment with his first outing this past week. The Orioles’ closer situation has been relatively stable this season with Brad Brach closing games, but they will welcome Britton back with open arms.

Of course, they will re-insert him as closer after a game or two in the majors upon his return but not because they want or need him closing games. They will let him get a couple of saves in July, so they can turn around and trade him for minor league depth at the deadline. Or they may trade Brach. Heck, they could even trade both.

As such, owners of Brad Brach and those of you speculating for saves should add Britton in the event they trade Brach and end up keeping Britton. Just be aware that you could end up with neither pitcher getting saves for their new team if they are dealt.

Hunter Strickland (SF)
The Giants activated Mark Melancon from the disabled list this past week. However, manager Bruce Bochy has been mum about whether Melancon will return to the closer spot. Strickland had a rough May in which he went 0-2 with four saves and a 3.97 ERA, which should tell you he’s been making games “interesting” in the final inning; the kind of “interesting” that gives managers ulcers and heartburn.

Melancon might get a shot at getting his job back at some point, but with Strickland, Sam Dyson, and Tony Watson all pitching well right now, Bochy has a nice problem on his hands. He can select any of the four to close games. Since the team is also in contention in the NL West, it appears the Giants won’t be sellers at the trade deadline.

However, they might trade one of those four former closers for something else they need. But before you go running to the waiver wire to stash one or more of those pitchers, remember that most teams, including the Giants, can never have enough bullpen arms. It is much more likely that all four remain with the team for the rest of the season.

Raisel Iglesias (CIN)
Iglesias is back with the Reds and notched a save Thursday night. Remember, the injury was to his non-throwing arm, so there was no reason for the Reds to ease him back. Those of you who grabbed Jared Hughes hoping Iglesias was going to be out for a while can dump him.

Edwin Diaz (SEA)
You may have noticed that the Nationals, Rockies, and Dodgers all moved up a notch in the closer rankings above. While Sean Doolittle’s big four-save week contributed to the boost in the rankings, the primary reason was that Edwin Diaz and the Mariners have dropped three slots.

After a dominant April, May was a bit shaky for Diaz and the wheels came off over the last week. Diaz imploded on Tuesday, allowing four runs on two hits and a walk, then added his third blown save of the season Friday evening, which raised his season ERA to 3.03.

Meanwhile, Alex Colome, recently acquired from the Rays, hasn’t allowed a run in three outings since joining the team. It’s possible that we’re merely seeing some regression to the mean with Diaz, but it’s also possible that there is an undisclosed physical problem with the Mariners’ closer. Fantasy owners of Diaz, and those of you speculating for saves, should grab and stash Colome right away if he’s available. If Diaz requires a trip to the disabled list, Colome would likely get the call to close.

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Tim McCullough is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tim, follow him @timstenz.

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