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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 14

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 14

Welcome to another week of the Closer Report! It’s been relatively stable at the top of the rankings of late (knock on wood), but there has been all kinds of chaos in the middle and lower tiers. Who are the big movers this week? Let’s take a look.

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Team (Closer) Current Rank Previous Rank +/-
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 1 1  –
Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel) 2 2  –
Mariners (Edwin Diaz) 3 3  –
Nationals (Sean Doolittle) 4 4  –
A’s (Blake Treinen) 5 7 +2
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 6 5  -1
Padres (Brad Hand) 7 6  -1
Cardinals (Bud Norris) 8 8  –
Brewers (Corey Knebel) 9 9  –
Reds (Raisel Iglesias) 10 10  –
Braves (Arodys Vizcaino) 11 11  —
Indians (Cody Allen) 12 12  —
Cubs (Brandon Morrow) 13 13  –
Marlins (Kyle Barraclough) 14 15  +1
Rangers (Keone Kela) 15 19 +4
Astros (Hector Rondon) 16 24 +8
Pirates (Felipe Vazquez) 17 18 +1
Diamondbacks (Brad Boxberger) 18 16  -2
Rockies (Wade Davis) 19 17  -2
Mets (Jeurys Familia) 20 14  -6
Twins (Fernando Rodney) 21 21  —
White Sox (Joakim Soria) 22 22  —
Phillies (Committee) 23 29  +6
Rays (Sergio Romo) 24 27  +3
Tigers (Shane Greene) 25 20  -5
Orioles (Zach Britton) 26 28 +2
Blue Jays (Committee) 27 23  -4
Giants (Committee) 28 25  -3
Angels (Committee) 29 26  -3
Royals (Committee) 30 30  —

 
Big Movers

Keone Kela
Kela has been lights-out over the last month (1.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 13.0 K/9, and nine saves) earning himself a boost into the top half of the closer rankings. He has been a little fortunate to avoid home runs and his walk rate is a little higher than you would like, so he’ll probably have a few more bumps in the road eventually. But his swing-and-miss stuff is the real deal and he’s got plenty of job security — unless he’s traded, that is.

Hector Rondon
A.J. Hinch will still likely mix and match in the ninth inning on occasion, but there’s no doubt who his main closing option is at the moment. Rondon is the only Houston reliever who has collected a save over the last two weeks, and he now has five of the team’s last six saves. Ken Giles got the other one, but that was only after Rondon had closed out the previous two games. As long as Rondon is given the opportunity, he has the ability to succeed. He’s striking out over 11 batters per nine innings, and while his 1.50 ERA will probably rise some, his 1.90 FIP and 2.64 SIERA aren’t too shabby, either.

Jeurys Familia
I don’t want to overreact to Familia’s epic blowup on Wednesday (four earned runs without retiring a batter), because he had a perfectly fine 2.41 ERA (and somewhat less fine but not catastrophic 1.31 WHIP) prior to that appearance. But Familia’s team context doesn’t help his chances of finishing the season with a ton of fantasy value. I don’t expect Familia to lose his job in New York, but it is looking like a foregone conclusion that he’ll be traded in July, and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be closing wherever he lands. In the meantime, he’s unlikely to see many save chances on a team with an 8-28 record since May 22. Add in lingering concerns about the sore shoulder that put him on the DL earlier this month and you can begin to see why he dropped six spots in the rankings this week.

Sergio Romo
Last week I said that Romo would “likely be glued to the bottom five spots in the rankings” unless he started to show his old form. Well, it’s only been one week, but Romo has already shown me enough to move him out of the bottom five. Since he took hold of the Rays’ closer job on June 12, Romo has a 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and five saves. He did give way to lefthander Jose Alvarado to finish the game on Friday, but Romo should still see the bulk of the save chances going forward.

I mostly just moved Romo ahead of committee situations this week, and I still have my doubts about his rest-of-season outlook, but he deserves a small bump in the rankings while he’s pitching effectively.

The Phillies
Gabe Kapler remains as unlikely as ever to name a designated closer, but as with the Houston situation, it’s become clear who’s the reliever to own in this bullpen. Seranthony Dominguez is sporting a fantastic 2.05 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 9.0 K/BB ratio. He won’t see every single save chance, and his owners will still occasionally have to stomach the sight of Tommy Hunter and co. pitching in the ninth inning. But Dominguez should see more save chances than anyone else in this bullpen, and his peripherals are enough to move him ahead of a struggling full-time closer like Shane Greene.

Shane Greene
Speaking of Greene, it’s been a fairly bumpy ride for his owners all year long, particularly of late, but his job security doesn’t appear to be in question. The Tigers are going nowhere and Greene is under team control for a couple more years at what should be a reasonable salary. He likely wouldn’t bring much back in a trade, anyway. This has all the makings of a situation that Detroit will be content to muddle through over the rest of the season, and Greene’s fantasy owners can approach it that way, too.

The Blue Jays
It seemed like Ryan Tepera had this job just about locked up until Roberto Osuna returns in August, but that is clearly no longer the case. Tyler Clippard has earned two saves since Tepera last got one, and Seung Hwan Oh has a more recent save than Tepera, too. Tepera blew a save on Wednesday by allowing a two-run shot to the Astros’ Alex Bregman, and then it was Clippard — not Tepera — who earned the save against the Tigers on Friday.

At this point, it looks like we are back to a full-blown committee in Toronto. With Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins recently confirming that Osuna will be the closer once his suspension is over, manager John Gibbons may not bother designating a set closer in the interim.

Random Musings

Blake Treinen
Treinen’s meteoric rise up the rankings continues with another great week. Treinen now has a microscopic 0.89 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through 40 2/3 innings, to go along with a 10.84 K/9 rate and 21 saves. Add it all up, and he’s been the single-most valuable reliever in standard 5×5 leagues, according to Baseball Monster. He wasn’t considered to be anywhere close to Kenley Jansen coming into the season, but at this point, give me Treinen. Closer is not a position where you can afford to stubbornly stick to pre-season rankings and last year’s performances — some relievers can quickly reach a new level of dominance when they put it all together, and that seems like what’s happening here.

Arodys Vizcaino
I moved Vizcaino up five spots in the rankings last week and laid out my case, but just as I was about to publish the Closer Report, news trickled in that Vizcaino was suffering from a sore shoulder. At the time, manager Brian Snitker was hopeful Vizcaino would only be held back for one game, so I stuck with the ranking but added a caveat that it only applied if Vizcaino was healthy. Within a day or two, Vizcaino’s “minor” shoulder injury had snowballed into a DL stint.

Now, Snitker is saying he expects Vizcaino back on Sunday, when he is first eligible. He’ll reportedly throw a bullpen session on Saturday and be reevaluated then. I am leaving Vizcaino at 11th in the rankings for now, but if I owned him I’d be concerned that Snitker could be underestimating Vizcaino’s injury again.

I do own A.J. Minter, and I am probably not dropping him until I see Vizcaino have a good outing or two without incident. Minter has been pitching very well lately and is currently sharing the closer job with Dan Winkler, who earned his first save on Friday. Minter or Winkler could wind up having quite a lot of fantasy value if Vizcaino suffers a setback.

Felipe Vazquez
Vazquez is having a terribly disappointing year after finishing as a top-five closer last year, but he seems to be getting his act together of late. Over the last two weeks, Vazquez has thrown 6 2/3 scoreless innings with a 12-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His strikeout rate for the season is actually up from last year, but he’s been hurt by an increase in walks, so the fact he’s issued no free passes in his last six appearances is encouraging. Vazquez has also suffered from a high .330 BABIP allowed and low 65 percent strand rate, so better times should be ahead.

Zach Britton
Britton had a bad week (six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings), but he still gets a slight bump up the rankings because he appears to have been given the keys to the ninth. Britton said after his last appearance that he still doesn’t quite feel like himself, but manager Buck Showalter certainly doesn’t seem to be losing any faith in him (“He’s still one of the best relief pitchers in baseball … It’s just going to take a little while for him to find his step, but he will.”). It makes some sense for the Orioles to stick with Britton at closer because he’s been a dominant one in the past — and the Orioles don’t have much to play for other than building up Britton’s trade value.

The Giants
Bruce Bochy named Sam Dyson as the Giants’ closer when Hunter Strickland went down, and that hasn’t worked out too well so far. Dyson has managed to collect two saves as the closer, but he’s also allowed five runs on 10 hits over his last 4 2/3 innings pitched. Mark Melancon seems like the obvious choice to inherit the ninth, but according to the San Francisco Chronicle“his arm isn’t strong enough yet to resume the role of closer and to be counted on day in and day out to finish out a game.” With Dyson unavailable on Friday, Bochy mentioned Tony Watson, Will Smith, and Reyes Moronto as possible closer candidates, and it was Smith who ultimately got the save.

This bullpen is quickly becoming a headache, but Smith has been pitching really well (1.13 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 12.38 K/9), so he could be worth a flier. I still think Melancon remains the best bet for saves over the rest of the season — his owners may just need to be a little patient.

The Royals
Wily Peralta has picked up Kansas City’s last two saves, and if he gets the next one, I will no longer consider this a committee situation. He’ll probably deserve a bump up the rankings at that point, too, as long as he keeps pitching reasonably well. But remember, we’re talking about a pitcher who had a horrific 7.85 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 57 1/3 innings last season, so I’ll need to see Peralta string together more than three or four good appearances before I’ll trust that he won’t be flammable to my precious ratios.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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