At this point in the season, there is still time to catch up in some of the pitching categories and get into the hunt to win your fantasy leagues. Of course, this assumes you’re not sitting in the basement in most or all the pitching scoring categories. You should be monitoring the Closer Report to see if you can garner some saves off the waiver wire, and you should also consider streaming starting pitchers when the matchups are favorable to boost your strikeout total and try to pick up some clean innings to reduce your ratio stats a bit.
I’ll mention getting some wins as well, but if you’re streaming in the hope of getting more than the occasional win, you won’t be successful. Chasing wins is a little bit like a dog chasing its tail, except it’s not funny when you get a win but end up losing ground in WHIP or ERA.
That’s why I always stress that you need to choose your streamers very carefully. In addition to a favorable matchup, make sure the pitchers you choose to stream have the necessary skills to help you. Strikeout ability is a must; if you’re not getting somewhere around a strikeout per inning or better from your streamed pitcher, you’re doing it wrong.
Also, you should be checking your streaming candidate’s ability to induce/control hard contact by looking at their batted ball Hard%, Flyball%, Groundball%, and HR/FB%. Your starting pitchers should have a Hard% that is no higher than the league average 35.5%, and a Flyball% that is below the league average 35.9%. If your pitcher can’t control the long ball, he’s probably too risky to use unless the team he is facing has power hitting issues.
You should also look at the HR/FB% data and identify streamers that fall below the league 13.1% HR/FB. It’s also useful to look for streamers with high groundball rates that exceed the league average 43.2%. There are plenty of pitchers out there whose effectiveness is directly tied to their ability to induce grounders, which usually lead to an out. Just remember that no single statistic makes a pitcher a favorable streamer. All of these stats should be observed together to provide context and create a profile that you can measure against the pitcher’s opponent to decide whether you should stream.
Now let’s see what the matchups look like for next week and determine whether we can find a few viable streamers with the skill set to help you gain some ground in the standings. As usual, we are looking for pitchers that are available in at least 70% of ESPN’s fantasy baseball leagues. Percentages shown are the percent owned in ESPN leagues.
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Monday, June 18
Tyler Chatwood (CHC) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (21%)
Chatwood survived five seasons in the Rockies organization because of his ability to control hard contact and induce groundballs. Indeed, his first season with the Cubs has produced similar results, as he is currently sporting an elite 56.9% GB rate with a corresponding 24.6% flyball rate. Couple those figures with an impressive 29.5% Hard% and an especially low 7% HR/FB rate and you’ve got the makings of an excellent streamer choice.
In fact, the only reason Chatwood is so readily available on the waiver wire is his problem with control; in 63.1 IP he’s collected 58 strikeouts and a very ugly 58 walks. Usually, I’d eliminate him from consideration based on that problem alone. But the Marlins as a team have a 23.5% strikeout rate, and they are MLB’s worst-hitting team against right-handed pitching with their league-low .286 wOBA and 80 wRC+. Chatwood’s home strikeout rate is 22.2%, which is considerably better than his road rate of 17.3% and that’s what finally tips the scale in his favor.
Tuesday, June 19
Jason Hammel (KC) vs. Texas Rangers (4%)
The Rangers have difficulty with right-handed pitching in that they strike out against them 25.6% of the time. The only team in MLB to strike out more often against righties is the Phillies (25.9%). While Hammel’s overall strikeout rate (14.9%) is low and would typically make me look elsewhere, he struck out 10 Rangers hitters the first time they met this season (5/27), which coincidentally, is the last time Hammel registered a win. The Rangers have a .301 wOBA and an 85 wRC+ against righties, so Hammel shouldn’t have too much trouble repeating his earlier feats against Texas.
Wednesday, June 20
Derek Holland (SF) vs. Miami Marlins (2%)
Holland started off the season in lackluster fashion with a 5.66 ERA after his first seven starts and seven HRs allowed in his first 35 IP. In the six starts he’s made since then, he’s allowed just two HRs in 32.1 innings with an ERA of 3.34 and a 25:13 K:BB ratio. Holland is facing a Marlins team that has a .293 wOBA and an 85 wRC+ against southpaws this season. It’s also worth noting that the Marlins have a .118 isolated power (ISO) against left-handers, so Holland should be able to continue to control the home run ball against them despite his above average Hard% of 38.9%.
Thursday, June 21
Chris Bassitt (OAK) @ White Sox (1%)
Bassitt will be making his third start of the season against a White Sox team that strikes out 25.1% of the time against right-handed pitchers. In the one start Bassitt has made (as of this writing), he tossed seven innings and gave up just one run on three hits with six strikeouts against the Royals. There is no question that Bassitt has the skill set to help your fantasy team as long as he can stay healthy.
If he pitches well for you, he’s the sort of pitcher you may end up keeping on your roster. He has a career Hard% of 27.1 percent and GB% of 43.4%, so observe his outings carefully and be prepared to keep him if he continues to pitch well.
Friday, June 22
Jordan Lyles (SD) @ Giants (10%)
Lyles has made just seven starts this season, and he’s been somewhat erratic at times. However, there aren’t many good options on this particular day, so Lyles represents the lesser of the available evils. If you can do without a streamer one day this week, this would be the day.
If you have to stream, Lyles could provide you with some strikeouts as he has 34 punchouts in his 40 innings as a starter this season. The Giants have a relatively high 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and their .154 ISO is against righties is on the low side as well. Lyle’s has a slightly above average 38.7 percent Hard% this season, but his career mark of 30.2 percent is excellent, so I suspect that his higher rate this season is the result of his conversion to starting duty six weeks into the season.
Saturday, June 23
Andrew Suarez (SF) vs. Padres (2%)
Suarez has labored through 10 starts this season with 53 innings pitched and an ERA of 4.92. However, his 22.8% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate are both solid and should serve him well against a Padres team that strikes out at a 25.6% rate. It also helps that the Padres have just a .287 wOBA and an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, making Suarez a nice streamer in the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park.
Sunday, June 24
Mike Montgomery (CHC) @ Reds (16%)
The Reds are right around MLB average against left-handed pitching with a .323 wOBA and 102 wRC+.But their .149 isolated power indicates a lineup that lacks punch, a conclusion that is further validated in the team’s 4.24 runs per game, which puts them in the bottom third of MLB. Their 69 round trippers put them among the bottom three in the NL. Besides, home runs won’t be a concern with Montgomery on the mound anyway because he’s limited hard contact to just 26.1% of batted balls and sports a flyball rate of just 27.3% with a corresponding groundball rate of 62%. The only knock on Monty is his 14.7% strikeout rate (5.33 K/9) butt I don’t think that matters against the Reds.
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Tim McCullough is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tim, follow him @timstenz.
