Week 12 of the Fantasy Baseball season is the kind of week where after setting your lineup Monday morning, you might be afraid to check in on your opposition. There are so many high-caliber two-start pitchers on the slate that I’m preemptively pouring one out for the guy who has to face a Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Trevor Bauer combination of doom. That team exists somewhere. Hopefully, you’re the one who gets to unleash it on an unsuspecting public on June 18th. Unfortunately, not every roster is created equal. So, if you’ll be the one fighting an uphill pitching battle, there are also some interesting names to note on the waiver wire. Let’s dive in.
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Don’t Think Twice
Gerrit Cole (6/18 vs. TB, 6/24 vs. KC)
Chris Sale (6/19 @MIN, 6/24 vs. SEA)
Jacob deGrom (6/18 @COL, 6/23 vs. LAD)
Trevor Bauer (6/18 vs. CWS, 6/23 vs. DET)
Mike Clevinger (6/19 vs. CWS, 6/24 vs. DET)
Jose Berrios (6/19 vs. BOS, 6/24 vs. TEX)
Miles Mikolas (6/18 @PHI, 6/23 @MIL)
Widely-Owned Options
Zack Greinke (6/18 @LAA, 6/24 @PIT)
It would take an extremely unique circumstance to bench Greinke. Yes, the results have not been at the level to which we’ve become accustomed, but, at the end of the day, he’s still striking out over a batter per inning with an ERA under 4.00. Now, if the strikeouts begin to evaporate? Well, that’s a different story. Contact suppression is the thread seemingly keeping it all together for the veteran. With his four-seam average velocity now sitting below 90 mph, when Greinke gets hit, he gets hit hard. Among the 97 pitchers with over 190 batted ball events, Greinke’s barrels per BBE rate of 10.2% ranks as the tenth-worst in baseball.
Blake Snell (6/19 @HOU, 6/24 vs. NYY)
It’s a tough draw in terms of schedule, yet I think Snell’s earned the “match-up proof” moniker. Still, if you want to nitpick, the right-handed nature of these two powerhouse offenses is easily the best way to give Snell some trouble. No pitcher has neutralized left-handed batters better than Tampa’s sophomore. They’ve hit to a disgusting .173 wOBA so far this season – the lowest mark among all qualified pitchers. Well, New York went with an all RHB lineup Thursday, something they’ll likely do again next Sunday. As for Houston, only six teams have fewer left-on-left plate appearances in 2018 and, in these situations, the Astros’ LHBs are actually hitting a league-high .303. I’m not saying sit him, but this all definitely keeps Snell from being a lock.
Sonny Gray (6/18 @WAS, 6/23 @TB)
I can understand not being thrilled to throw Gray back out there against a healthy Nationals team, but, Wednesday night notwithstanding, I think the Yankees have figured a few things out with the former Athletic. First and foremost, Gray’s numbers have been far better with Austin Romine acting as his personal catcher. With that variable apparently put to rest, I can start to really get behind Gray’s recent form. Even going back as far as April 30th, a span of 47.2 innings, Gray has pitched to a respectable 3.78 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP. Those numbers don’t blow you away, yet they’re more than enough to justify some trust.
Garrett Richards (6/18 vs. ARI, 6/24 vs. TOR)
Definitely keep an eye on Richard’s status heading into Week 12. The oft-injured RHP left his start Wednesday afternoon against Seattle after only two innings with a hamstring issue – something that has apparently been plaguing him since at least last week. Recent history and Richards’ reputation would certainly seem to indicate a DL-stint might be coming soon, but, if he’s cleared to go, you’re in the right to use him. Be positive. It’s not like anything bad ever happens to Angels pitchers…
Jameson Taillon (6/19 vs. MIL, 6/24 vs. ARI)
There’s nothing particularly flashy about Taillon’s game. He’s average to slightly-above-average in terms of strikeouts, he relies on a groundball rate that currently rests above 50%, and he’s done a fantastic job negating RHBs in 2018, as they’ve hit to an exceedingly low .236 wOBA when facing him. Both of his opponents (specifically Milwaukee) can throw quality left-handed bats up against Taillon, but he’ll still do just fine. The 26-year-old has cemented himself as a consistent high-floor option.
Nick Pivetta (6/18 vs. STL, 6/24 @WAS)
I’m giving Pivetta one more shot. Wednesday’s contest against the Rockies was a perfect example of why the 25-year-old is so frustrating from a fantasy perspective. After surrendering a run in the game’s first inning, Pivetta proceeded to strike out five consecutive men. He then crumbled in the fourth – eventually allowing six runs on eight hits. The prior two outings weren’t a whole lot better, as Pivetta has been saddled with 13 earned runs over his last 14 innings. Still, this is the same guy who pitched to a 2.86 FIP with a 33.3% strikeout rate in the month of May. That was only 15 days ago. Ride with the upside and give Pivetta the benefit of the doubt.
In the Danger Zone
Cole Hamels (6/18 @KC, 6/24 @MIN)
In the simplest terms, Hamels’ 2018 season has had an explosive formula. What’s worse than being a pitcher who walks 3.48 opponents per nine? How about a pitcher who isn’t just super generous with free passes, but also surrenders the third-most home runs per nine of any qualified player? Yeah. That’s not really a guy you’d feel confident locking in for two starts, right? It’s the blow-up potential. While some pitchers might not live up to expectations during the course of a given week, only a special few can ruin your ratios in a single start – and Hamels will get a pair of chances in Week 12. Sure, his numbers are far better away from Texas. His ERA is a deceptive, but fantastic 2.41 and he’s given up far fewer long balls, yet still I don’t feel comfortable recommending him. It would take a deep format for me to displace a league-average starter for the volume upside of Hamels.
Marco Gonzales (6/19 @NYY, 6/24 @BOS)
This isn’t a situation where you’re dropping Gonzales to avoid the two-start week, it’s a spot where you’re stashing him for his own protection. I do believe that Gonzales is a genuinely good pitcher and a 1.41 ERA across his past 38.1 innings does a good job of backing up that thesis. However, if you can avoid sending a contact-oriented pitcher into two of the most daunting offensive environments in all of baseball, you probably should. Entering play Thursday, the Yankees and Red Sox own the first and second-highest isolated power marks in the league. They repeat that ranking when it comes to wOBA. A key to Gonzales’ success has been his ability to avoid surrendering the long ball. In fact, across that same 38.1 inning run, the 26-year-old gave up just a single home run. That won’t be the case in Week 12. Sometimes the schedule is against you.
Luke Weaver (6/19 @PHI, 6/24 @MIL)
My Dad’s a pretty easy going guy. It would take a lot to get him truly upset when I was young. Still, he used to tell my sister and I that we each got one big screw-up for free. So, in theory, if we wrecked the car, he’d cover it the first time. Second massive screw-up? Hope you’ve got a line of credit. I am not a parent. I’m not even one of those annoying people to can refer to a pet as their “fur-baby.” All I have is my fantasy baseball teams. I learned this week that I am not as forgiving as my father. There is no “sorry” for not taking advantage of a match-up with the Padres. There’s no “I’ve got you next time.” It was clear even last season that Weaver’s high strikeout numbers were unstable with his low swinging strike rate, but to manage just four against San Diego? Goodness. What’s left to get excited about? Even if Weaver had a high K/9, he hasn’t gotten out of the sixth inning in 10 of his 14 outings this season. I don’t see the upside anymore.
Streamers Under 50%
Carlos Rodon (6/19 @CLE, 6/24 vs. OAK)
Caleb Smith (6/18 @SF, 6/24 @COL)
Tyler Chatwood (6/18 vs. LAD, 6/23 @CIN)
I’m honestly a little shocked that Rodon is still available in as many Yahoo! leagues as he currently is. It’s very much up for debate as to whether the young lefty will ever live up to being the third overall selection in the 2014 Draft, yet, for the purposes of fantasy, Rodon is a classic high-upside roster piece. Plus, he’s been pretty much exactly who we would expect him to be through two starts in 2018. Rodon has struck out eleven opponents in ten innings, while walking another five. Pretty much par for the course in terms of his career numbers. Because of those walks (and a less than sustainable BABIP), Rodon’s FIP is ugly, but it’s early in his season and those things take time to normalize. Also, coming back to face Boston and Cleveland isn’t quite Alabama easing their way into the season with Richmond. In fact, let’s actually look at that start against the Red Sox a little closer. Boston has the American League’s second-highest contact rate at 78.9%. They don’t strike out often, let alone swing and miss. Well, Rodon managed a 14.4% swinging strike rate – an elite figure regardless of opposition. You won’t find ceiling like this often on the waiver wire.
Streamers Under 25%
Dylan Covey (6/18 @CLE, 6/23 vs. OAK)
Andrew Suarez (6/18 vs. MIA, 6/23 vs. SD)
Mike Montgomery (6/19 vs. LAD, 6/24 @CIN)
Domingo German (6/19 vs. SEA, 6/24 @TB)
I did not think that I’d be singing Dylan Covey’s praises by mid-June of this season, but here we are. Covey has been spectacular across his last five starts, pitching to a sterling 1.53 ERA and 1.87 FIP. I keep assuming I’ll find the red flag somewhere, however, the deeper you dig into the statistics, the more there is to like. Covey hasn’t allowed a home run in any of those five outings. That, on its surface, might seem a little too good to be true, yet, a 63.1% groundball rate is a pretty good tool in the war against home runs. There’s just an answer to any concern you might have, any concern except small sample. Still, when it’s all said and done, it’s not about knowing when a player is legitimate, it’s about being the first one confident enough to grab him. I’d suggest buying in to Covey now. If he keeps pitching anything like he has the past month, it’ll be an investment that pays off well beyond Week 12.
Not Unless You’re Desperate
Jhoulys Chacin
Trevor Williams
Tyler Anderson
German Marquez
Dereck Rodriguez
Paul Blackburn
Jason Vargas
Ian Kennedy
Jaime Garcia
Eric Lauer
Sal Romano
Erick Fedde
David Hess
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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.
