Week 13 will be the final week of Fantasy Baseball for the month of June and while that might not mean much in the immediate future most seasons, 2018 seems a little different. The non-waiver trade deadline is still almost six weeks away, but it feels like the market is moving faster this year than it has in years past. We’ve already seen a number of relatively big trades go down and, as the gap between the real-life haves and have-nots keeps expanding, that type of action should continue with teams already very aware that they’ll be sellers in this diametric environment. Two of the most rumored pitcher names, J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels, are both slated for two starts next week. Will either be around long enough to make those scheduled outings? That is one of many queries as we look ahead.

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Don’t Think Twice

Corey Kluber (6/25 @STL, 7/1 @OAK)
Charlie Morton (6/26 vs. TOR, 7/1 @TB)
Gerrit Cole (6/25 vs. TOR, 6/30 @TB)
David Price (6/26 vs. LAA, 7/1 @NYY)
Jon Lester (6/25 @LAD, 6/30 vs. MIN)
James Paxton (6/26 @BAL, 7/1 vs. KC)
Ross Stripling (6/26 vs. CHC, 7/1 vs. COL)

Widely-Owned Options

J.A. Happ (6/25 @HOU, 7/1 vs. DET)
There’s just a touch of risk next week with Happ. Aside from the aforementioned chance that the Jays decide to trade him in this window, his matchups are daunting for a southpaw. The Astros have been crushing teams the last three weeks, yet their ability to destroy lefties has been consistent all season long. They sit with a league-best 125 wOBA in the split. The Tigers are fifth in that regard. They also have baseball’s lowest strikeout rate against left-handers.

Gio Gonzalez (6/25 @TB, 7/1 @PHI)
It took until June, but Gonzalez finally hit a rough patch in 2018. Over his last three starts, the veteran has pitched a combined 13.1 innings, allowing eleven earned runs and four long balls in that span. Ugly stuff. Still, Gonzalez has maintained a groundball rate over 50% and has continued to average nearly a strikeout per inning. You’re forgiven if you lack the same level of confidence in him that you might have possessed two weeks ago, but there’s no way you’ll be leaving him out of your lineups.

Jameson Taillon (6/25 @NYM, 7/1 @SD)
I often present Taillon as a high-floor option that’s not exactly the most exciting pitcher to ever grace us with a two-start week, however, that might be selling him a little short. Since May 11th, a span of 46 innings, Taillon has struck out 48 opponents while enjoying a 3.48 FIP. That’s worthy of a bump in heart rate all by its lonesome, yet it’s the schedule in Week 13 that really conjures the imagination. Across the past 30 days, both the Mets and Padres find themselves among a group of nine teams that haven’t been able to even muster a wOBA above .300. Expect big things from the Pirate.

Cole Hamels (6/25 vs. SD, 7/1 vs. CWS)
I’m not generally one to sing Hamels’ praises, but the right set of matchups can do crazy things to a man. It took Kauffman Stadium and an anemic Royals offense, but Hamels is coming off his best start of the season and has worked into the seventh inning in five of his last six outings. Against these two strikeout-prone teams? That could mean big time counting stats. San Diego and Chicago each lead their respective league in strikeout rate this season and while Hamels has had his struggles in Texas, neither is a worrisome opponent. Every dog apparently has their day. I guess, for Hamels, he gets seven.

Michael Fulmer (6/25 vs. OAK, 6/30 @TOR)
Pitching for the Tigers, it was always a pipe dream that Fulmer could be a consistent contributor across all five categories. Not only is he a slightly above average strikeout arm at best, but there’s just no win expectancy throwing for one of baseball’s weakest teams. Fulmer’s won only three of his 15 outings this season, yet his floor is high enough where he’s still usually a lock in a two-start week. Plus, he appears to be in fine recent form. Fulmer has pitched to a 2.99 FIP and 26.3% strikeout rate across his past three starts. Hopefully, he can carry the good times over.

Rich Hill (6/25 vs. CHC, 7/1 vs. COL)
I’ve been bearish on all Dodgers pitchers returning from injury, so it would almost seem insane that the one I have the most confidence in is the walking emergency room that is Rich Hill – but here we are. For me, even putting aside the six scoreless innings he threw in his last start against the Cubs, it’s all about process. Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda both appeared to be rushed back to MLB action. In fact, neither threw a rehab start. Not so with Hill. Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, Dave Roberts has the shortest leash in all of baseball. However, in a two-start week, Hill’s a lock for double-digit strikeouts. I mean, you might as well play him while he’s healthy, right?

Zack Godley (6/26 @MIA, 7/1 vs. SF)
It hasn’t been 2017, but Godley has at least been better in his last three starts – a stretch that includes a rare positive outing at Coors Field. Twice in that span Godley has struck out at least eight opponents and, as always, his groundball rate has been something he can lean on. It’s also not as if the matchups are scaring anyone off. Proceed with Godley confidently in Week 13.

In the Danger Zone

Jake Arrieta (6/26 vs. NYY, 7/1 vs. WAS)
Only one qualified pitcher has a lower swinging strike rate than Arrieta this season: Bartolo Colon. That is most certainly not the type of stuff you want to bring to a battle with the Yankees. Now, there are a few things that would seem like they’re in Arrieta’s favor, but I implore you to not be seduced by them. The first argument an Arrieta truther might make would definitely reference his success pitching in Philadelphia in 2018. Now, there’s no denying that a 2.08 ERA over 43.1 innings looks great, but the sheen is dimmed somewhat when those numbers are juxtaposed by a .212 BABIP. That’s unstable. Especially with Arrieta’s groundball preference. Really, regardless of where you stand on Arrieta’s real-life value, it’s undeniable that the loss of his strikeouts has capped his fantasy ceiling. What’s the most optimistic we can be about his strikeout output for two games? Nine? Ten? To me, that’s not enough of a draw to risk him blowing up my ratios in a pair of tough matchups.

Kyle Hendricks (6/26 @LAD, 7/1 vs. MIN)
Coming into his start Thursday night, Hendricks was surrendering 1.51 home runs per nine for the year. He was also one of only seven qualified pitchers who possessed an ERA a full run lower than his FIP. These are statements that don’t evoke confidence. Hendricks is simply a fantasy commodity that needs to thrive with his ratios, as his strikeout ability has always been unflattering. Well, he hasn’t even been able to be that guy across his last 39 innings. Hendricks has posted an underwhelming 4.15 ERA while walking over 3.00 opponents per nine. His groundball rate over that span was a non-spectacular 41.2%. A few seasons back, Hendricks made a name for himself with his ability to induce soft contact. With hard contact rates soaring across the league, I’m just not sure if that archetype can be profitable anymore. A good outing against a relatively hapless Reds team doesn’t change that perspective, either.

Jakob Junis (6/25 vs. LAA, 7/1 @SEA)
His ownership rate has steadily fallen since mid-May, but let us put the final nail in the coffin. If you take away the first two starts of Junis’ season, you’re left with a pitcher that can claim just a 5.24 ERA and 5.30 FIP. Those are not numbers that generally warrant any kind of conversation in a fantasy sense. Even the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium hasn’t been able to mask Junis’ woes. Not only has the 25-year-old surrendered a massive 2.2 home runs per nine across that 77.1 inning run, but he’s allowed 2.3 long balls per nine in his home starts. The Angels are good. The Mariners are good. Jakob Junis is not. In my opinion, he’s an obvious candidate to sit in Week 13 or, better yet, cut him.

Streamers Under 50%

Lance Lynn (6/26 @CWS, 7/1 @CHC)
Vince Velasquez (6/25 vs. NYY, 6/30 vs. WAS)
Mike Soroka (6/25 vs. CIN, 7/1 @STL)
Joey Lucchesi (6/25 @TEX, 7/1 vs. PIT)
Kevin Gausman (6/26 vs. SEA, 7/1 vs. LAA)
Felix Hernandez (6/25 @BAL, 6/30 vs. KC)

There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Lance Lynn was terrible to begin the season. Left-handed batters were pummelling him, he wasn’t working deep into games, and, from a walks perspective, few pitchers were more generous to opposing hitters. However, since May 22nd, all that has seemed to change. Lynn kind of looks like Lynn again. Now, that’s not to say the veteran is suddenly a Top-20 pitcher, but he’s worked his way back to reliability. Over that six outing span, Lynn has pitched to a sterling 1.73 ERA with a 56.6% groundball rate. Yes, to be fair, he’s still walking over 4.00 men per nine across this run, but that’s where Week 13’s matchups come into play. The White Sox might be his perfect foil. Not only do they raise Lynn’s ceiling with their high strikeout rate, but their aggressiveness (they lead baseball with a 33.9% chase rate) has translated to the third-lowest team walk rate in the league. The Cubs are a different story in terms of free passes, but they do have one of the ten highest overall swing rates in MLB. Either way, that elite groundball ability should keep Lynn from blowing up.

Streamers Under 25%

Freddy Peralta (6/26 vs. KC, 7/1 @CIN)
Shelby Miller (6/25 @MIA, 6/30 vs. SF)

How can you ignore the upside of Peralta? Sure, he might work himself into some trouble from time-to-time with erratic control, but the strikeouts. Those always vital strikeouts. Not only has Peralta struck out 25 batters in his first three major league starts, he had retired 84 opponents on strikes in just 59 innings at Triple-A. It will be interesting to see if that specific type of success can translate itself to a game against the Royals, a team that possesses baseball’s lowest strikeout rate at 19.0%, but, even if they don’t go down swinging, they will go down. Kansas City has managed a pitiful 69 wRC+ over its past 30 days coming into play on Thursday. They can’t hit. The Royals have sort of become a “free space” when it comes to streaming. I’d suggest taking advantage with some of the highest upside you’ll see on the waiver wire this year.

Not Unless You’re Desperate

Steven Matz
Reynaldo Lopez
Jonathan Loaisiga
Frankie Montas
Chad Bettis
Jose Urena
Tyler Mahle
Nathan Eovaldi
Dan Straily
Matt Harvey
Blaine Hardy
Derek Holland
Andrew Cashner
Chris Bassitt
Felix Pena

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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.