On this week’s episode of As The Fantasy World Turns (production pending), we rejoin our hero trying desperately to make sense of closer chaos, paternity leaves, the ever-present threat of a hot rookie being called up and the fast-approaching Trade Deadline. We just saw Kelvin Herrera get dealt to the Nationals and now a lot more fantasy owners are going to be cognizant of potential moves, but you still have time to capitalize before then. I believe in you, just be sure you are playing with your head and not your heart!
Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo leagues and, along with the stats, are accurate through June 17.
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Priority Pickups – <30% Owned
Domingo German (NYY – SP/RP): 20% owned
German has tallied back-to-back quality starts with nine strikeouts against the Mets on June 9 and a career-high 10 against the Rays on June 14 (for his first career win). While he’s given up three earned in each start against unimposing offenses, the upside shown by his swing-and-miss stuff on a team that might be able to support you or me with enough offense makes him worth your while.
If you’re into those stat thingies, how about this? There are only five pitchers with at least 50 innings under their belt that have a swinging-strike rate of 15% or higher. Max Scherzer (17.7%), German (15.6%), Chris Sale (15.4%), Jacob deGrom (15.1%) and Noah Syndergaard (15%). Yes, that’s what I mean by swing-and-miss upside.
Kevin Kiermaier (TB – OF): 19% owned
Kiermaier is set to come off the disabled list on Tuesday after going 7-for-17 with a double and a triple during his rehab assignment. The star defender has been out since the middle of April with a torn ligament in his right thumb after starting the year ice cold, hitting just .163 with zero homers and one steal in 48 PAs. I’m trusting the larger body of work here, which has seen him average roughly 16 homers and 20 steals per 162 games played. You could use that, right?
Robert Gsellman (NYM – SP/RP): 21% owned
I hope you didn’t drop Gsellman just because Anthony Swarzak also saw the ninth last week and Jeurys Familia was activated because G-Unit stepped up with a perfect ninth inning on Sunday for his third save of the season. He followed up Familia, who gave up a run on three hits and a walk in a rusty eighth inning. I hesitate to trust any pitcher coming back from “shoulder soreness,” let alone a guy who looks like that in his return. Hold (or add) Gsellman until Familia asserts himself, but if Familia returns to form then he becomes a likely trade chip.
Kevin McCarthy (KC – RP): 5% owned
Brandon Maurer (KC – RP): 1% owned
Let’s face it, the 2018 Royals bullpen has featured Kelvin Herrera and not much else. Now that Herrera is off to D.C. we have a vacancy in Kansas City’s ninth inning to fill, which means this is the pair you’ll need to know. While Maurer is the guy with (brief) closer experience, he’s only thrown 5 1/3 innings this season and has an awful 13.50 ERA/2.44 WHIP to show for it.
While I wouldn’t be surprised to see experience win Maurer a crack at it, there’s no doubting that McCarthy should get a chance based solely on merit. His low 15.7% K rate and lofty 60.4% groundball rate gives off an Alex Claudio vibe, but there’s little arguing with the 3.38 xFIP and 3.31 SIERA he’s accrued over 30 1/3 innings.
Joe Jimenez (DET – RP): 12% owned
Jimenez struck out three in a scoreless frame on Sunday for his second save of the season and is looking like one of the stronger pre-Trade Deadline closer stashes. The 2018 Tigers aren’t in the mix right now but will surely look to flip current closer Shane Greene for whatever they can get for 2019 and beyond. With Joe-Jim reclaiming his prized prospect form (3-0 record, two saves, 40 Ks in 35 1/3 IP with a 2.04 ERA and 0.99 WHIP), I expect him to get the ninth by August 1. That comes sooner than you think.
Avisail Garcia (CWS – OF): 21% owned
Before he got hurt, Garcia was underwhelming with a sad .233/.250/.315 slash line over 76 PAs. We all knew he wasn’t the .330 hitter that 2017 put on display, but he’s not 100 points worse and he didn’t suddenly lose all semblance of power either. The 27-year-old outfielder (yeah, he’s only 27) is set to rejoin the White Sox by this weekend after going 6-for-17 with a homer during his Triple-A rehab assignment. Don’t pick him up looking for last season’s numbers, but those in 5OF formats should have his modest pop from the middle of the order plugged in.
Kyle Gibson (MIN – SP): 27% owned
Rocking a 2.20 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last month of play, Gibson seems to be approaching a level of consistency that we can work with. While I was disappointed to see him walk four Indians last Friday in just his second victory of 2018, Gibson had issued just six free passes over his previous four outings so let’s hope he can get back to that. While he won’t maintain a sub-.200 BABIP in each start, his 17.6% pop-up rate is the fifth-best mark for a starter in the bigs, right ahead of Max Scherzer (16.7%). His aggression across the zone is working out for him, but it’d be lovely if Minnesota could support his efforts with more runs!
Wade LeBlanc (SEA – SP/RP): 15% owned
LeBlanc picked up the whiffs in his longest, most impressive start of the season as he led a 1-0 shutout of the Red Sox on June 16. It was the third victory of his last four outings as the 33-year-old southpaw continues to party with a healthy 4o-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 48 innings as a starter, but be aware of the .244 BABIP and 93.6% strand rate over the same span. The 2.06 ERA as a starter hides the 4.05 xFIP and 4.03 SIERA, but a career-best 69.4% first-strike rate has helped him stay in control and sets up the career-best 36.8% O-Swing mark. Don’t expect an ace by any means, but he can be above average on a team that knows how to win.
Mike Montgomery (CHC – SP/RP): 21% owned
The Cubs may be backed into a corner with Montgomery when Yu Darvish is back, as there are only so many rotation slots to go around! How can you look me in the eye, Joe Maddon, and tell me a 2.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his last 28 innings deserves to go back to the bullpen? No one paints him as a big strikeout arm, but the 10.4% swinging-strike rate should be yielding a K rate closer to 20% rather than 14.7%. In my mind, Tyler Chatwood has until Darvish returns to convince the team that he deserves to stay in the rotation over Montgomery. Even then, it might not be enough.
Jonathan Loaisiga (NYY – SP): 15% owned
Loaisiga wasn’t at his best throughout his MLB debut, but he managed to work around three hits and four walks in five innings to blank the Rays and pick up his first big-league victory. Normally, I’d be terrified of a rookie showing such poor control but “Johnny Lasagna” has walked just four batters in 45 Minor League innings thus far in ’18, so I remain optimistic. Regardless, he showed poise and an ability to turn in a solid outing despite not having his A-game working. He’ll tangle with the red-hot Mariners on Wednesday.
Deep League Targets – <10% owned
Randal Grichuk (TOR – OF): 7% owned
Typically, no one is going to enjoy owning a hitter as streaky as Grichuk. He went off on Sunday, roping two homers with four RBIs and chipping in a stolen base just because. But he had posted a homerless 2-for-15 throughout the week after punishing Baltimore’s pitching to the tune of an 8-for-16 line with two homers in the prior weekend’s series. Head-to-head owners will need to be wary, but roto owners should be all over this because the end product is what matters. Since being activated on June 1, he’s slashing .326/.380/.717 with five homers, 10 runs scored, 13 RBIs and a bag. We’ve seen the power before, so buy in while the ceiling is showing.
Tom Murphy (COL – C): 4% owned
For those that didn’t listen to me last week and scoop Yan Gomes (20% owned), Murphy has started behind the dish for six of Colorado’s last seven. The Rockies have (momentarily) decided to give their young players a shot at finding a groove. The big-swinging backstop had crushed 16 homers in just 48 Triple-A contests prior to the promotion and had nowhere else to go, but it didn’t hurt that Chris Iannetta and Tony Wolters were barely combining to hit above the Mendoza Line. Those without a real top-six catcher should gamble on Murphy’s power upside at Coors.
Cory Spangenberg (SD – 2B/3B/OF): 2% owned
The versatile Spangenberg is 13-for-37 (.351) with two homers and two steals over the past two weeks as he makes the case for more playing time. Unfortunately, he’s a lefty-swinging son-of-a-gun and rides the bench against southpaws so more PT really doesn’t boil down to performance. All the same, those with deep enough benches and daily moves should tap the 27-year-old utility player for duty thanks to his modest power-speed combo (13 HR, 11 SB in 486 PAs last season) and current hot hand.
Devon Travis (TOR – 2B): 3% owned
Don’t blink or you might miss it! Yes, Travis finally looks to be healthy and has gotten a hit in each of his last seven starts, which includes three straight multi-hit affairs. He’s cranked two homers and stolen a base over that span and is hitting .370 over the last two weeks, which means he should be on radars regardless of batting ninth. He’s only two years removed from being a legitimate .300 hitter with double-digit pop and non-zero speed, but you cannot count on him to stay healthy. Toronto will give him more off days than the average player, but he looks to have recaptured that .300 form and is therefore of use.
Matt Strahm (SD – SP/RP): 1% owned
Remember back when Strahm was a sleeper for Kansas City’s rotation? Well, what he’s doing with the Padres so far — 1.23 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 14 Ks in 14 2/3 IP — is why we were excited. San Diego has adopted the “opener” philosophy with Strahm as he continues to work in three-inning bursts, but all it would take is the Pads to green light his being stretched out as a starter to give deep leaguers a viable arm.
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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.
