As with anything in life, the best way to improve your fantasy football aptitude is to practice. Our Draft Wizard simulation software affords everyone the opportunity to blaze through countless drafts using a variety of league settings. In fact, our developers even added dynasty mock drafts and rookie-only drafts for your dynasty leagues. Today, I set up a standard 12-team, half-PPR mock draft (with no kickers or DST) and randomized my spot in the draft. The draft took less than five minutes to complete and I love how my team turned out. Let me tell you all about it and the decisions that went into building the roster.
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1.7 Julio Jones (WR – ATL)
I consider the seventh pick to be among the worst options this season. It isn’t that I dislike Jones, but rather that I would expect to get him at 11 or 12 so this is a bit of wasted value. With that said, he is the seventh player on my board and the top six were all gone. I, of course, considered Odell Beckham, Leonard Fournette and DeAndre Hopkins here, and in that order, but what it ultimately came down to is that I believe Julio has the best ceiling and best floor of them all. He has actually been every bit as durable and every bit as reliable in terms of bust rates as Antonio Brown over the past three seasons, if you can believe it. The difference, of course, is touchdown rate, but let me just encourage you to take a quick look at Cris Carter’s touchdown progression over his career.
2.6 A.J. Green (WR – CIN)
My number one rule in fantasy football drafts is to take the best player available in the first two rounds no matter what. If that means two wide-receivers, then so be it. I’m not going to rach for Jerick McKinnon when Green and Keenan Allen are on the board just so I can feel marginally better about the balance of my team. The Green and Allen internal debate was a tough one for me. Allen was a rock star to end the season and has a tremendous ceiling with Hunter Henry out for the year, but he has proven a risk in the past. Green, meanwhile, has been a top 10 wideout each year he is healthy and still has no competition for targets. I’ll gladly take another 80 reception, 1,300 yard, 10 touchdown season from the 18th pick in the draft.
3.7 Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
This was without question the easiest pick of the draft for me. Yes, Brandin Cooks was still there, and I love Cooks in the late third, but not with McCaffrey on the board in a half-PPR and especially not when I need an RB1. McCaffrey had more fantasy points as a receiver last year than T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, plus everything he accomplished on the ground. The return of Greg Olsen with D.J. Moore also arriving on the scene should cut down on his targets, but you can also expect McCaffrey’s carry total and touchdown rate to rise, making him a strong candidate to finish as an RB1 once again.
4.6 Golden Tate (WR – DET)
I intend on writing another handful of mock draft articles before the season kicks off. If you want, feel free to just skip the fourth round in each of those articles, as I can assure you that whether I have the 1st pick or the 12th pick, I’ll be taking Tate in round 4 every single draft. You can bank on 90 receptions, 1,000 yards and a handful of scores, as we’ve seen each of the past four seasons. Know who else offers that kind of consistency year in and year out? Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and….no one. The ceiling is low, but the floor is a low-end WR2.
5.7 Derrius Guice (RB – WAS)
Every year we hear rumors after the draft that ____ rookie running back won’t start because the team prefers ____ veteran. This year is no different as the rumors have already leaked that Peyton Barber has the job in Tampa and Rob Kelley in Washington. You don’t actually buy that do you? Guice will have to “prove himself” this pre-season, and unless he gets injured, he will, of course, accomplish the fake threshold to earn the starter job. Until then, I’ll take a discount on a potential workhorse.
6.6 Sony Michel (RB – NE)
I actually like Michel this season even more than Guice. Michel is falling deeper into drafts, however, so I was confident he’d survive until the 76th pick where I nabbed him. To be quite honest, I’d take him around pick 45 if I had to. Not only is he extremely talented and expected to walk in Dion Lewis‘ touches, but the Patriots provide more goal-line opportunities to their running backs than any other team and it isn’t especially close. Michel is expected to be that guy so I’ll gladly take a dozen TDs from my sixth round pick.
7.7 Jamison Crowder (WR – WAS)
Three weeks ago, I had a mild affinity for Crowder, as he has steadily improved over the year and is the very type of player who tends to go overlooked in fantasy leagues. Since then, he has become among the players I expect to have the most shares of (Golden Tate and who I grab in the 9th round shortly). Alex Smith was a top five QB in football last year and takes his game to Washington where Crowder should be the primary beneficiary. As Mike Tagliere pointed out to me, Smith plays so conservatively that he rarely throws to receivers who don’t have separation, and wouldn’t you know it, Crowder consistently has far and away the best separation of any pass catcher on the Redskins.
8.6 Kyle Rudolph (TE – MIN)
Last year, Kirk Cousins tight ends combined for nearly 1,000 yards and that was without a healthy Jordan Reed. The year prior they went for 1,300, in 2015 it was again over 1,000 and even back before Jordan Reed, you’ll remember that Cousins turned Niles Paul into a fantasy relevant asset with 507 yards in 7 starts. The point here is clearly that Cousins loves to use tight ends, and now he gets a great one. Not only that, but outside of Adam Theilen and an often injured Stefon Diggs, there aren’t many weapons for Cousins’ aerial attack. He’s got 9,000 yards over the past two seasons too, so those fantasy points have to go somewhere.
9.7 Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
I mentioned earlier that Jones is one of the players I’ll have the most shares of. Let me be clear, however, that I am quite aware of the risk here. There is a strong chance that Jamaal Williams or Ty Montgomery (more on that later) will be the head honcho in Green Bay’s backfield, or even that the three of them will split work, but if Jones (the best back of the bunch) wins the job outright, then I’ve got myself a legitimate RB1. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Jones is a top-five fantasy pick overall in 2019, nor would it surprise me if he went entirely undrafted and forgotten by then. That is an investment I’m willing make after pick 100.
10.6 Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI)
Remember when Cohen was the early breakout back, not Alvin Kamara? He went for 44 fantasy points on just 44 touches in his first three games, then the Bears allowed him only 7.4 touches per game the remainder of the year. That was one of many reasons Matt Nagy was brought in to take over Chicago. Just look at how he used a similar player, Kareem Hunt, in Kansas City last season. That isn’t to say Cohen will be the lead back, but it goes without saying that Tarik will see a substantial uptick in opportunities. Add in the fact that Nagy loves using his backs as receivers and you can imagine Jordan Howard is due to lose some work. Don’t forget, they call Cohen the human joystick for a reason, and I’ll bet Nagy shows the world why this year.
11.7 Ty Montgomery (RB – GB)
I wanted Jamaal Williams too, but freakin’ Stay Gould Ponyboy sniped me in the 10th round. There is a chance here that the Packers just poop on my party and turn this backfield into a three-headed monster. More likely, however, is the scenario where one of these three is handed the lion’s share of the duties just like we saw in 2017, and I end up with an RB1 for the low cost of 9th, 10th and 11th round picks. Don’t be so quick to count out Montgomery, who you’ll remember, was the lead-back
12.6 Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
All of the running back options I’d even consider taking in a 12-team league were suddenly off the board so I shifted my attention back my wide receiver core. I get it that Ridley may not be the greatest dynasty asset, but a large reason for that is his advanced age. With that age comes significant polish. He is ready to do damage on the league from Week 1 and should see enough carries to make him a top 40 wideout. It will help, as you might imagine, that Julio will be drawing double-coverage more often than not.
13.7 Matt Ryan (QB – ATL)
As it turns out, I am going all in on the Falcons’ passing offense this season. That isn’t such a bad thing considering Ryan is just one year removed from having one of the most efficient passing seasons of all-time. With that said, my plan here was to take Jameis Winston in the 14th round. Once he was taken (the pick before me, I might add), I decided to act immediately and grab Ryan, less I ended up stuck with Jared Goff or Derek Carr. In this year’s fantasy leagues, I will have one of Aaron Rodgers, Winston or Ryan. As far as I’m concerned, there are no other options.
14.6 Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
I almost took Godwin three rounds prior just to make sure I got him, but I figured I could have my cake and eat it too. I was right. Godwin was remarkably efficient and played brilliantly down the fantasy stretch last year. As a result, the Bucs have already named him a starter with Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. Don’t forget that Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick had enough passing yards combined that if the two were one player, they would have led the NFL last season. This is what Godwin, and all of his ability, is stepping into.
Final Roster
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, Aaron Jones, Ty Montgomery, Tarik Cohen
WR: Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Golden Tate, Jamison Crowder, Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin
TE: Kyle Rudolph
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