Bryce Harper put on quite a show for the hometown crowd in Monday night’s Home Run Derby, delivering a thrilling victory over Kyle Schwarber. Of course, because this is Harper, the win was naturally met with some controversy, but it was still a bright moment in what has otherwise been a mixed year for the Nationals star. We’re over halfway through the season, and while Harper is showing nice power with 23 dingers, he’s still batting just .214, which is hardly the mark of a fantasy baseball first-rounder.

And yet, the peripherals generally remain strong, so can we expect more crowd-pleasing results moving forward? He’s producing a 41.1% hard-hit rate and 39.6% fly-ball rate — supporting that home run power — and despite the horrendous batting average, much of that can be blamed on an abnormally low .226 BABIP, which sure looks like bad luck given all that hard contact. Harper’s .351 wOBA also remains mildly disappointing, but a .393 xwOBA further suggests he’s deserved better. And while it won’t help you much in most fantasy formats, he’s showing one of the highest walk rates of his career (18.8%).

That said, Harper might be swinging for the fences more often than usual, considering his higher 24.6% strikeout rate, along with a career-low contact rate (69.1%). He’s particularly struggled with the punchouts of late, posting a cringe-worthy 31.7% rate since the beginning of June. That’s not a good look, but it stands to reason that a guy with a career .277 batting average and 20.9% strikeout rate should find his way eventually.

Expectations have always been sky-high for the talented, still-young slugger, and whether it be injuries, inconsistency, or something else, Harper seems to constantly teeter between superstardom and disappointment. But if this week’s Derby showed anything, health doesn’t appear to be an issue, and otherwise, his latest woes side with some misfortune more than anything else. The elevated strikeout rate remains the biggest issue, but with a return to his career norms, Harper ought to finish the year strong.

Let’s check in on a couple other guys looking for a strong start to the second half.

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Robbie Ray owns a 5.03 ERA through 10 starts, but also has an encouraging 3.48 SIERA

Ray looked due for some regression following a fantastic 2017 season, but this is far worse than even the most pessimistic forecasters could have predicted. An oblique injury has held him to just 10 starts, and it’s no doubt a reasonable excuse for some of his struggles, but the results have been downright awful in a 5.03 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. The velocity is down from last year, and his 12.6% walk rate would be a career worst if the season ended today.

But thankfully there are some positive signs that Ray can turn things around. He’s still posting a stellar 34.1% strikeout rate, and a 3.48 SIERA suggests he hasn’t been quite as bad as his putrid ERA. And while he’s been susceptible to a high BABIP over his career (.321), an inflated .343 mark could potentially find its way down to a more palatable level. In his last start, he posted his highest velocity since coming off the DL in late June, further giving hope of better days ahead.

Still, a full return to last year’s marks remains optimistic. Ray is allowing a career-worst 47.3% hard-hit rate, which partially explains some of that horrendous BABIP. While his 20.4% HR/FB rate should regress, he’ll continue to be susceptible to dingers if he keeps allowing this much hard contact and just a 33.6% ground-ball rate. Maybe maintaining that improved velocity helps push these numbers in the right direction, but it’s worth noting he’s allowed a high career hard-hit rate (37.9%) and walk rate (9.8%).

All that being said, Ray is a talented high-strikeout hurler, so even without a miracle turnaround, he remains far better than he’s shown thus far. Public projection systems peg him for an ERA around the mid-to-high 3.00s, which sounds like a reasonable expectation moving forward. Given the batted-ball numbers, walks, and uncertain velocity, he isn’t an unequivocal buy-low target if you’re in a tight race for ERA and WHIP. But if you’re hurting for punchouts, he’s definitely worth a gamble.

Clayton Kershaw is still averaging under 92 mph through 13 starts

Kershaw was once the unquestioned best pitcher in the game, but due to ongoing back issues, this offseason marked the first time in ages where it was perfectly reasonable to take someone like Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, or Corey Kluber ahead of him in drafts.

Sadly, injuries have once again cropped up, holding Kershaw to just 13 starts to this point. A 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP is nothing to scoff at, of course, but even when he’s been healthy, this isn’t quite the dominant king of the mound we’ve grown accustomed to. His 3.36 SIERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, and 5.6% walk rate are all drop-offs from 2017, and his 10.9% swinging-strike rate is his lowest since 2010. Perhaps most concerning, though, is he’s showing the lowest velocity of his career, averaging under 92 mph for the first time. Perhaps we can blame some of this on health, but since coming off the DL in June, he hasn’t really shown any game-to-game improvement.

This is all nitpicking, of course — nearly all pitchers would happily take this Kershaw’s numbers. He also finally worked his way over 100 pitches in his last start, so better days could be ahead. But unless he begins to show signs of that old velocity, we may not see the gaudy marks of years past. Kershaw remains excellent, but in the grand pantheon of starting pitchers, the days of sitting in a tier of his own could very well be in the rear-view mirror.

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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.