Skip to main content

By The Numbers: Corey Dickerson, Marcell Ozuna, Eugenio Suarez

By The Numbers: Corey Dickerson, Marcell Ozuna, Eugenio Suarez

The Pittsburgh Pirates are on quite the tear of late, with an 11-game winning streak finally coming to an end at the hands of the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday. There’s no question Corey Dickerson has been a big part of their success this month, batting .400/.425/.829 with a 9.6% strikeout rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate. Despite a lack of power for much of the year, he’s slugged a whopping five dingers over his last six games.

The recent tear puts Dickerson’s season slash line at a cool .318/.351/.517, and his batting average has surprisingly been his strongest fantasy asset, ranking eighth overall among qualified batters. At a time when many have lamented the rise in punchouts across the league, Dickerson has actually gone in the opposite direction, posting a career-best 12.3% strikeout rate, practically slashing his 2017 mark in half (24.2%). Yes, while everyone else has gone all-in on swinging for the fences, here is Dickerson prioritizing contact, with his contact rate jumping from 73.6% to 82.9%. It’s hard to argue with the results, though, as his 132 wRC+ is his highest in years. Not bad for a guy who was designated for assignment by the Tampa Bay Rays this offseason.

View your league’s top available players with My Playbook partner-arrow

Of course, the downside has been the dip in power, and even with his recent power binge, it only puts his season total at 11. His 9.7% HR/FB rate is a sizable drop off last year (17.2%), and while we might normally see that as a sign of potential positive regression, that’s no given considering his change in approach. Still, the rise in hard contact this month is encouraging, and his fly-ball rate is actually slightly up this year (37.4%). His .199 ISO ultimately isn’t that far off from 2017, either, and all things considered, he could still work his way to around 20 dingers, which would be just fine given his strides batting average.

Hopefully, Tuesday night’s hamstring issue is minor, as Dickerson has emerged as a nice value in fantasy leagues — albeit perhaps not in the way we expected. Health permitting, even if the power evaporates again, it doesn’t look like the high batting average is going anywhere, and he’ll otherwise supply some healthy counting stats as the Pirates’ leadoff man.

Now, let’s touch on how some other guys are doing around the league.

Marcell Ozuna is posting a 44.7% hard-hit rate, but only owns a .110 ISO

Although Dickerson has been slightly underwhelming in the home run department, the expectations weren’t exactly along the same lines as Marcell Ozuna, who slugged 37 bombs in 2017. Given Ozuna’s giant leap in power — his previous high was 23 — there were plenty of reasons to predict regression, but even the most pessimistic probably didn’t think Ozuna would only have 10 dingers near the end of July. In fact, to this point, he’s actually seen a career-low in both ISO (.110) and wOBA (.295) in spite of showing stellar improvement in hard-hit rate (44.7%).

With that much hard contact, surely the power should come around, right? An elevated ground-ball rate was one reason to be skeptical Ozuna could repeat 37 home runs, and it’s even a little bit higher this season (48.5%). Still, his fly-ball rate is around the same (33.0%), and his average exit velocity is actually slightly up, which coincides with his rise in hard-hit balls. Furthermore, even if we expected regression in last year’s 23.4% HR/FB rate, his current 9.8% mark doesn’t even sniff his career average (14.3%). According to Statcast’s expected stats, Ozuna has been one of the unluckiest batters in terms of power, with a -.110 difference between his SLG and xSLG. All the evidence suggests the lack of dingers has been flukey, to say the least.

And really, that’s been the story of Ozuna’s 2018 campaign. The batting average may also be down from last year (.261), but it isn’t far off from what he’s done in most seasons, and he’s never been known for his speed, so the lack of power has really sapped his fantasy value. Amazingly, he now hasn’t hit a home run since June 16th, and seven of his 10 long balls came in that month. Yet, he’s still shown a 40.0% hard-hit rate in July.

It’s been a curious, and frustrating, campaign for fantasy owners, but as long as Ozuna is hitting the ball hard, the power ought to come around at some point. He won’t come close to last year’s marks — which was generally expected anyway — but this isn’t a .110 ISO batter. Better days should be ahead.

Eugenio Suarez leads the league in hard-hit rate (52.2%)

If you have Eugenio Suarez on a fantasy team, you’re well aware of what kind of season he’s having, but as a Cincinnati Reds player, he doesn’t seem to be a guy who gets much attention. He leads all qualified batters in hard-hit rate (52.2%), and in the month of July, he’s posting a ridiculous 62.5% mark, exceeding even red-hot players like Khris Davis and Matt Carpenter.

Suarez also now holds the eighth-best wRC+ in the league (154), besting superstars like Manny Machado, Freddie Freeman, and Francisco Lindor. Not surprisingly, his .405 wOBA and .271 ISO are both far and away career-bests.

Naturally, the relevant question is whether or not Suarez is capable of maintaining this pace. Given all that hard contact, a solid 38.9% fly-ball rate, and a hitter-friendly home venue in Great American Ball Park, it’s reasonable to expect excellent power numbers moving forward. Sitting at 22 dingers, he should easily exceed 30 when it’s all said and done, which would be a new career-high.

On the other hand, as a career .265 hitter holding a high .338 BABIP, we should probably pump the breaks on hitting .305 the rest of the season. That said, it’s otherwise hard to nitpick what Suarez is doing, and he’s put up consistently strong numbers in every month this season. A borderline top-200 pick entering the year, it’s fair to say drafters got their money’s worth.

Import your team to My Playbook for instant Lineup & Trade advice partner-arrow

Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.

More Articles

Fantasy Baseball Streaming Pitchers: Luis Gil, Jose Butto, Seth Lugo (Friday)

Fantasy Baseball Streaming Pitchers: Luis Gil, Jose Butto, Seth Lugo (Friday)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 1 min read
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Kerry Carpenter, Starling Marte, Reynaldo Lopez

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Kerry Carpenter, Starling Marte, Reynaldo Lopez

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Lane Thomas, Jackson Chourio, Jack Flaherty

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Lane Thomas, Jackson Chourio, Jack Flaherty

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Luis Castillo, Josh Naylor, Ketel Marte (Week 5)

Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Luis Castillo, Josh Naylor, Ketel Marte (Week 5)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 10 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

3 min read

Fantasy Baseball Streaming Pitchers: Luis Gil, Jose Butto, Seth Lugo (Friday)

Next Up - Fantasy Baseball Streaming Pitchers: Luis Gil, Jose Butto, Seth Lugo (Friday)

Next Article