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Bye Week Quarterback Primer (Fantasy Football)

Bye Week Quarterback Primer (Fantasy Football)

There are very few things that frustrate fantasy players the way that bye weeks do. It’s always a delight to be staring down a must-win game only to realize that your starting quarterback is on bye. The feeling of panic as you scramble to the waiver wire. The frustration when you realize there isn’t much to choose from. The butterflies in your stomach as you drop a quality bench player to add a signal caller you have zero confidence in. Fun stuff, isn’t it?

Not really, but here at FantasyPros, we have you covered. So much so, that we realized a comprehensive list of quality bye week quarterbacks was entirely necessary. In searching for high-caliber fill-in signal callers, we will look at each and every bye week on the 2018 season, but before we start rattling off names, dates, and statistics, let’s define the terms of our study. Here’s the criteria:

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In order for a player to qualify as a potential bye week replacement, he has to rank outside the top-17 at the position in our expert consensus rankings (ECR) , and have a consensus Average Draft Position (ADP) at or outside the top-125, therefore making him a reasonable late-round pick or waiver wire option.

I gravitated towards players that matched up against bottom-16 defenses in terms of QB points allowed in 2017. While things can always change from year-to-year, it would make little sense to suggest that you should stream a signal caller in a match-up with the Jaguars, Vikings, Chargers, or any other dominant pass defense.

For the most part, I shied away from franchises with highly-drafted rookie passers like Cleveland, New York (Jets), Buffalo, Arizona, and Baltimore. I felt confident including Tyrod Taylor in a couple early season contests, but it’s hard to project who will be under center for these teams as 2018 rolls along, so we’ll have to worry about that as the season unfolds.

A lot of names appear frequently on this list, so it will quickly become apparent who the very best late-round and waiver wire quarterback options are in 2018. So without any further build-up, let’s take a week-by-week look at the season ahead.

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Week 4

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: Cam Newton (CAR)

Quality Replacements: Mitchell Trubisky (vs. TB), Dak Prescott (vs. DET), Andy Dalton (at ATL), Ryan Tannehill, (at NE), Blake Bortles (vs. NYJ), Tyrod Taylor (at OAK), Derek Carr (vs. CLE), Case Keenum (vs. KC)

The Rundown: If you have Cam Newton as your QB1 this season, you have nothing to worry about, as his bye week is flush with quality replacements. There are no less than eight high-end streaming options to help you pick up a victory.

Trubisky and the newly-invigorated Bears offense against a Bucs pass defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last year? Sign me up.

Tannehill against a Pats defense he’s shredded for 300-plus passing yards in four straight contests? All day long.

Late-season surger Bortles against a Jets defense that surrendered 18.3 points per game to opposing quarterbacks a year ago? Yup.

And that says nothing about Taylor, Carr, and Keenum, all of whom face opponents that were positively shredded against that pass a year ago. Prescott against Detroit is a reasonably strong play, although the Lions’ secondary seems to be on the upswing and Glover Quin and Darius Slay remain in the mix. Even Andy Dalton against the Falcons is a quality option. All in all, this is probably the best crop of replacement options of any week in 2018. Enjoy it for what it is.

Week 5

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: None

The Rundown: No explanation needed. There are no top-17 quarterbacks on bye this week. Unfortunately, this is the only time that happens on this list.

Week 6

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: Drew Brees (NO), Matthew Stafford (DET)

Quality Replacements: Jameis Winston (at ATL), Derek Carr (vs. SEA), Mitchell Trubisky (at MIA), Blake Bortles (at DAL)

The Rundown: If you’re relying on Brees or Stafford as your QB1, the replacement options are a little dicier in Week 6, as there are question marks surrounding most of the potential streamers. There is, however, one candidate who stands out as a terrific play.

In my opinion, Winston is the premium streaming candidate of the week. I expect him to perform admirably against a Falcons team he’s quietly averaged 249 passing yards, 2.4 passing touchdowns, and 0.4 interceptions per game against during his career.

Carr draws a Seahawks defense that has lost Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Michael Bennett, and Cliff Avril, (and still may trade Earl Thomas). On paper, it’s a terrific match-up, but the ‘Hawks are usually pretty resilient. The defense could crumble, or young players could step up. At this point, it’s all conjecture, but I tentatively expect Carr to perform reasonably well.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins were a fairly middle-of-the-road pass defense in 2017, so Trubisky’s draw is neither particularly favorable or daunting. In fact, his inclusion on this list is more a byproduct of a lack of options in Week 6 than any degree of confidence in this match-up.

The same can be said for Bortles against Dallas. The Cowboys gave up 28 touchdown passes last year, but were a pretty solid pass defense from a yardage standpoint. This is the only time I slotted them in as an opponent to target.

Week 7

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: Aaron Rodgers (GB), Russell Wilson (SEA), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Quality Replacements: Case Keenum (at ARI), Mitchell Trubisky (vs. NE), Andy Dalton (at KC), Jameis Winston (vs. CLE), Tyrod Taylor (at TB), Blake Bortles (vs. HOU), Eli Manning (at ATL)

The Rundown: Make no mistake about it, Week 7 is the most crucial of all quarterback byes, as the first (Rodgers), second (Wilson), and tenth-ranked (Roethlisberger) signal-callers are all sidelined. People will be scrambling for replacements left and right but fortunately, there are a ton of quality streamers available.

Keenum’s name came up in Week 4, but this time he draws an Arizona pass defense that allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks a season ago. Now, Tyrann Mathieu is out of town and the match-up looks very solid for 2017’s breakout passer. However, a quick word of warning: This is a Thursday Night game, and these contests often tend to be less than ideal for fantasy purposes, so proceed with caution.

I’m hesitant to trust young Trubisky against Bill Belichick and the Pats, but we all watched the same Super Bowl. New England’s defense appears more vulnerable than it’s ever been. This is a risky play, but the upside is there.

Dalton gets a bad rap in the fantasy community, but he’s been productive in stretches. In Week 7, he draws a Chiefs secondary that allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers last season. And that was with Marcus Peters. Having Eric Berry back will help in a big way, but losing your number one corner is never easy to overcome.

Winston and Taylor could pile up points in a potential shootout. But could Winston be throwing down with Baker Mayfield when this contest rolls around? Week 7 seems a little early for the rookie, but I’m not prepared to bet against it.

The Texans were terrible against the pass in 2017, allowing 18.5 points per contest to opposing quarterbacks. I expect them to be markedly better this year, but you have to consider Bortles a quality streamer in this one.

If Manning bounces back in 2018, he will be a solid play against the Falcons in what could be a high-scoring affair between two talent-rich offenses.

Week 8

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: Philip Rivers (LAC), Matt Ryan (ATL), Marcus Mariota (TEN)

Quality Replacements: Ryan Tannehill (at HOU), Case Keenum (at KC), Mitchell Trubisky (vs. NYJ), Andy Dalton (vs. TB), Alex Smith (at NYG), Derek Carr (vs. IND)

The Rundown: There aren’t any fantasy passers ranked in the top-10 on bye this week, but reliable contributors like Rivers and Ryan, and a potential breakout like Mariota could still start for a lot of teams. However, should you need to replace any of them in Week 8, it shouldn’t be particularly difficult with so many favorable contests on the slate.

Tannehill is a quality play against the Texans, but as I mentioned before, Thursday Night games aren’t usually lucrative for fantasy purposes.

Most of the same principles of Keenum’s match-up with Kansas City in Week 4 apply here, although he could have a tougher time of it on the road.

This is Trubisky’s fourth consecutive appearance on this list. It might seem lazy, but his schedule is fantastic in stretches, and this is an excellent sign that you should be buying the Bears offense where you can get it.

I was hesitant to include Smith on this list after his 2017 breakout, and he will likely be rostered on a lot of teams. However, he narrowly meets our streaming criteria, and could light up a Giants defense that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing passers a year ago.

Meanwhile, Dalton and Carr check back in, as both men find themselves in premium match-ups at home against bottom-five pass defenses from a year ago.

Week 9

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: Carson Wentz (PHI), Andrew Luck (IND)

Quality Replacements: Derek Carr (vs. SF), Ryan Tannehill (vs. NYJ), Alex Smith (vs. ATL), Case Keenum (vs. Texans), Dak Prescott (vs. TEN)

The Rundown: Wentz and Luck are often compared to one another. Two younger players who have arm talent, mobility, and size to spare, and both of whom are looking to return from serious injuries. While the expectation is that both will be back at full strength in 2018, the unfortunate reality is that in Week 9, neither one of them is going to be available to help your squad.

Carr’s match-up with San Francisco looks tasty, but once again, we have a quality streamer in a Thursday Night match-up. I’m a little less worried about Carr, however, since his 417-yard, three-touchdown demolition of Kansas City came on a Thursday in 2017.

Another week, another Tannehill sighting. And we’re not done yet.

Ditto, Alex Smith.

This is Keenum’s fourth and final appearance on the list, and it comes against the team that signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2012. It’s a pretty fantastic story, but also a potentially appetizing draw.

I like Prescott to bounce back this year, but a string of tough match-ups has kept him off the list in most weeks. However, a date with a Titans defense that allowed the eighth-most passing yards definitely propels him into the discussion in Week 9.

Week 10

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: Deshaun Watson (HOU), Kirk Cousins (MIN)

Quality Replacements: Ryan Tannehill (at GB), Blake Bortles (at IND), Alex Smith (at TB) Eli Manning (at SF)

The Rundown: Watson looked like the most exciting young quarterback in the league during his injury-shortened 2017 rookie season. Meanwhile, Cousins just became arguably the biggest free agent signing in recent NFL history. There is excitement surrounding both of them right now. In Week 10 however, you’ll need to have a contingency plan if you drafted either one of them to be your starter.

In eight career games against the divisional rival Colts, Bortles has thrown for 2,064 yards, 12 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. The Jags’ signal caller has also rushed for an additional 197 yards and two scores. Bortles may very well be the best stream of the week.

See, I wasn’t kidding about Tannehill and Smith. The Packers and Bucs will likely be better against the pass in 2018, but there’s no reason to assume both of these men won’t be productive in Week 10.

By now you know all about Eli Manning‘s 2017 struggles, but he was great against the 49ers in Week 10, throwing for 273 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions without Odell Beckham in the lineup. Now, Beckham is back and Saquon Barkley has been added to the equation. This is a great situation for the veteran signal-caller.

Week 11

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: Tom Brady (NE), Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)

Quality Replacements: Dak Prescott (at ATL), Jameis Winston (at NYG), Eli Manning (vs. TB), Alex Smith (vs. HOU), Derek Carr (at ARI)

The Rundown: It’s a rough week if you’re relying on handsome NFL quarterbacks as your starters. Indeed, both Tom Brady and Jimmy Garropolo are on bye. However, just because their facial symmetry will be absent from our television screens and fantasy lineups doesn’t mean the week is ruined. Not at all. There are five passers who, if started, could reward us…..well… handsomely.

Winston could find himself in another scoreboard-busting bonanza in Week 11 when his Bucs host the Giants. No need to re-state how bad these pass defenses were last year, but Winston and Eli Manning should be throwing a ton in this one.

Speaking of Manning, he had one of his best games of the season against the Bucs in Week 5. Even if you’re skeptical of Manning’s future prospects, this match-up is great on paper.

This makes four in a row for Smith, as he has one of the most favorable third quarters of the season of any signal caller. If he’s still available on the waiver wire during this portion of the season, 2017’s passer rating leader could pay dividends.

Carr makes his fifth and final appearance on the list. While his 2017 was disappointing, if you’re someone who believes he’s capable of bouncing back, then I’d highly recommend investing in him this season. With a reasonably low ADP (125) and a string of excellent match-ups, he’s a legitimate contender for bye week quarterback of the year.

Prescott didn’t do much in his only career start against the Falcons, but we’re willing to give him a mulligan. After all, Ezekiel Elliott was out of the lineup. Admittedly, I’m worried about Prescott’s receiving options now that Dez Bryant and Jason Witten have moved on, but this could be a high-scoring affair. Prescott wouldn’t be my first choice as a streamer in Week 11, but I wouldn’t be afraid to rely on him if necessary.

Week 12

Potential Starting QBs on Bye: Jared Goff (LAR), Patrick Mahomes (KC)

Quality Replacements: Andy Dalton (vs. CLE), Ryan Tannehill (at IND), Jameis Winston (vs. SF)

The Rundown: The final bye week of the 2018 season is an interesting one, as two of the game’s most talented young passers will be sidelined. Mahomes and Goff check in as the 14th and 17th quarterbacks in our ECR so it’s entirely possible that very few teams will be relying on them for QB1 production. That’s probably for the best, because there are only a few solid fill-in options available.

Dalton against the Browns is the play of the week. In his last six contest against the Browns, he’s tossed 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Oh, he’s won all six games too, but I guess that doesn’t help our fake football teams.

Tannehill ties Carr with his fifth appearance on this list in Week 12. Depending on how you feel about his prospects against the Lions in Week 7, this could very easily be his sixth. A lot of people will scoff at the notion of relying on a player who hasn’t taken a meaningful snap since 2016, but the fact is, he enjoys one of the softest mid-season schedules in the league.

Winston further cements himself as one of the season’s best streamers with his fourth appearance on the list.  Yes, his suspension will make him undraftable in the eyes of many, but if you scoop him up off the waiver wire, you will be rewarded with some fantastic match-ups throughout the season.

Most Appearances on this List

Derek Carr: 5
Ryan Tannehill: 5
Jameis Winston: 4
Andy Dalton: 4
Mitchell Trubisky: 4
Blake Bortles: 4
Case Keenum: 4
Alex Smith: 4
Dak Prescott: 3
Eli Manning: 3
Tyrod Taylor: 2

Conclusion

The argument in favor of streaming quarterbacks has gained considerable steam over time, but no matter where you stand on the issue, it’s abundantly clear that there’s a surplus of options to get you through your bye weeks in 2018. There are 11 men on this list who are capable multi-week fill-ins. Whether you invest a high draft pick in Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson, or decide to wait on the position, know that quality quarterback play is usually not that difficult to find if you’re looking in the right places.

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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.

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