DRAFT MLB Lineup Advice: Wednesday (7/11)
It’s a full 15-game slate on Wednesday and DRAFT has provided us with four different time zones to enter a contest: 12:10 pm EST (15 games), 3:45 pm EST (12 games), 7:05 pm EST (11 games), and 10:07 pm EST (two games).
Seven of the 14 games (no line for DET/TB as I write this piece) have an over/under of at least nine total runs. The ARI/COL matchup runs away with the slate lead, carrying 11.5 total runs between them, according to Vegas.
As for pitching, four teams are considered heavy favorites (-200 odds, or greater): Red Sox, Astros, Twins, and Indians. Expect to see most of the starting pitchers from those clubs in the top portion of my SP rankings.
This article is posted well before lineups are released by the managers. If you have a question, feel free to reach me on Twitter @CharlieSideHstl.
1. Chris Sale, BOS (vs. TEX)
2. Jacob deGrom, NYM (vs. PHI)
3. Lance McCullers Jr., HOU (vs. OAK)
4. Carlos Carrasco, CLE (vs. CIN)
5. Freddy Peralta, MIL (@ MIA)
6. Kenta Maeda, LAD (@ SD)
7. Lance Lynn, MIN (vs. KC)
8. Marco Gonzales, SEA (@ LAA)
9. Luke Weaver, STL (@ CWS)
10. Joey Lucchesi, SD (vs. LAD)
I write about these top four pitchers all the time. Let’s show some love to the arms below the cut line. Peralta has been a pleasant surprise for the Brew Crew. He’s punched out at least five batters in every career outing and allowed one earned run, or less, in three of the past four appearances. Peralta will face the Marlins on Wednesday. Miami is 26th in runs scored (355 runs in 93 games) and ninth in team strikeouts (810) this season.
One of the biggest favorites on Wednesday is Minnesota. That’s a big boost to Lynn, who takes the hill for the Twins against the Royals. He’s already faced Kansas City once this season: 6 IP, 2 ER, and 5 K. Lynn has performed better at Target Field. This season, he’s 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 42.2 innings of work at home.
1. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (@ COL)
2. Francisco Lindor, CLE (vs. CIN)
3. Jose Ramirez, CLE (vs. CIN)
4. Nolan Arenado, COL (vs. ARI)
5. Trevor Story, COL (vs. ARI)
6. Manny Machado, BAL (vs. NYY)
7. J.D. Martinez, BOS (vs. TEX)
8. Xander Bogaerts, BOS (vs. TEX)
9. Jose Altuve, HOU (vs. OAK)
10. Alex Bregman, HOU (vs. OAK)
11. Ozzie Albies, ATL (vs. TOR)
12. Jake Lamb, ARI (@ COL)
13. Eduardo Escobar, MIN (vs. KC)
14. Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (@ BAL)
15. Trea Turner, WSH (@ PIT)
16. Didi Gregorius, NYY (@ BAL)
17. Mitch Moreland, BOS (vs. TEX)
18. Freddie Freeman, ATL (vs. TOR)
19. Brian Dozier, MIN (vs. KC)
20. Edwin Encarnacion, CLE (vs. CIN)
As I mentioned at the beginning, the ARI/COL showdown leads the Wednesday slate with an implied run total of 11.5 runs. The Rockies are favored, so they have the highest projected run total (6.1 runs). Both Arenado and Story are in the top five. Story leads the team with eight hits in the past week (.471 AVG), but Arenado has a better ISO against righties since 2017 (.223 ISO).
Since they’re playing the Yankees, it seems like Machado is trying out for the club. On Tuesday night, he went 3-for-4 with two home runs. He’s now batting .357 (10-for-28) with three doubles and two home runs (five walks) in the past week. On Wednesday, his Orioles face Sonny Gray. In his career, Machado is 7-for-21 (.333) with two extra-base hits (one home run) against Gray.
1. Mookie Betts, BOS (vs. TEX)
2. Mike Trout, LAA (vs. SEA)
3. Aaron Judge, NYY (@ BAL)
4. Charlie Blackmon, COL (vs. ARI)
5. Andrew Benintendi, BOS (vs. TEX)
6. Bryce Harper, WSH (@ PIT)
7. David Peralta, ARI (@ COL)
8. A.J. Pollock, ARI (@ COL)
9. Aaron Hicks, NYY (@ BAL)
10. Starling Marte, PIT (vs. WSH)
11. Eric Thames, MIL (@ MIA)
12. Steven Souza Jr., ARI (@ COL)
13. Eddie Rosario, MIN (vs. KC)
14. George Springer, HOU (vs. OAK)
15. Juan Soto, WSH (@ PIT)
16. Michael Brantley, CLE (vs. CIN)
17. Tommy Pham, STL (@ CWS)
18. Justin Upton, LAA (vs. SEA)
19. Christian Yelich, MIL (@ MIA)
20. Gregory Polanco, PIT (vs. WSH)
Boston is tied for second with 5.7 implied runs on Wednesday. Both Betts and Benintendi are tied with 12 hits in the past week. While Benintendi has the better batting average (.632 to .444), Betts is best in terms of ISO (.226 to .196).
The Diamondbacks are projected to score 5.5 runs on the slate and Peralta is my top recommendation from their outfield. He’s batting .400 (8-for-20) in the past week and his BvP numbers are top-notch against German Marquez. Peralta is 7-for-17 (.412) with four extra-base hits (one home run) against Marquez.