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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (7/2)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (7/2)

We have nine-games on the DraftKings featured slate and there are a lot of directions you can go on the bump today. We have some aces, solid mid-range arms and some cheap pitching options as well. In early builds, I find myself paying between a combined $17,000 and $19,000 for both SP slots today and like I mentioned, there are a variety of ways you can get there. You can pair a couple of heavy favorites in Jonathan Loasiga $8,300 and Alex Wood $8,900 to get some solid strikeout and win potential. If you’re going top shelf with Max Scherzer $13,300 or Corey Kluber $12,500, you’ll need some value on the other side of the mound to offset those price tags. We’ll cover the other side and go around the diamond today to get you some viable cheap plays that can help open up more options for roster construction and help you get into the cash. Ready? Let’s go!

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Pitcher

Luis Castillo (CIN): $5,700 vs. CHW

After a sparkling rookie season, Castillo has been plagued by a sophomore slump, mostly due to some seriously hard contact differential from last year’s marks. However, when looking at some other differentials, I see some signs for progressing back towards the 2017 Castillo. His 5.85 ERA is ugly, but he’s sporting just a 4.01 xFIP and 4.12 SIERA this year. There is always an inherent risk of a bad outing at the Great American Smallpark, but like I mentioned on Saturday, the White Sox are bad against RHP and it doesn’t surprise me that he’s a massive (-202) favorite and also projected to have over seven Ks tonight. Based on matchup, I’m taking a chance on him in tournaments with Scherzer. For a safer cash game play, look below.

Brent Suter (MIL): $6,500  vs. MIN

Very quietly, Suter (-133) has paid off his salary in all of his last seven starts and he’s been on a roll. I’m not sure why his price keeps hovering around the mid-$6,000 range, but I’m assuming it’s a low ownership history. Every time I look at him he’s posting solid DK points while not being used very much, but I see him in plenty of winning lineups. Most of that is slate-specific, but he gets a solid matchup today against the Twins who are struggling to stay healthy and hit lefties. They’re the second-worst team ISO against southpaws and rank in the the bottom third in wRC+. They are expected to have Jorge Polanco back in the lineup today as he’s eligible to return from his 80-game PED suspension, but that’s not enough to make me worry.

Catcher

Chris Iannetta (COL): $3,400 vs. SF

I didn’t even mention how hot it will be today across the MLB in the intro. Every outdoor ballpark not named Dodger Stadium will see a first-pitch temp above 95 degrees, and that includes Coors Field. Oh yes, there should be plenty of offense today in store and the mecca of offense has the catcher play of the day. Iannetta has all the batted ball data working in his favor over the last two weeks; high hard hit and flyball rate? Check. Spiked exit velocities? Check. Increases in batted ball distances? Check! All of this, and now he goes home to Colorado in the mile-high air? Checkmate!!!

Other Notables

Elias Diaz (TEAM): $3,200 @ LAD

First Base

Justin Bour (MIA): $3,300 vs. TAM & C.J. Cron (TBR): $3,500 @ MIA

In today’s battle of the Sunshine State, both 1B are very appealing and come at a discount. There’s considerable upside here considering these guys both have excellent platoon splits. Let look at Bour first: .247 ISO, .372 wOBA, 137 wRC+ vs. RHP. Now, let’s examine Cron: .218 ISO, .352 and 127 wRC+ vs. LHP. Bour costs $300 less and has an edge on the platoon, but, considering how bad Wei-Yin Chen and the Marlins bullpen are, I like Cron just as much when Tampa is guaranteed some ninth-inning plate appearances as the road team too. It’s a toss-up! Let the salary cap decide this one.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis (CLE): $3,700 @ KC

A handful of guys at the keystone have rebounded nicely after starting off 2018 in the dumps, it’s been somewhat of a recent trend. Kipnis is another one of those guys who’s simply piling up the DK points of late. In the last two weeks, he’s got a hit in all but two of the Tribe’s games with a total of 15 knocks, including three multi-hit efforts and three long balls in that stretch with high flyball and hard hit rates are in play today in the summer heat.

Other Notables

Jonathan Villar (MIL): $3,300 vs. MIN

Third Base

Jedd Gyorko (STL): $3,300 @ ARI (also 2B eligible)

Gyorko is a solid platoon guy that you can roll out when the Cards face a lefty. With .293 ISO, .414 wOBA and 165 wRC+ platoon splits vs. southpaws in his favor and high batted ball distances and flyball rate the last two weeks. The roof will be closed today in Arizona, which you’d expect when it’s over 105 degrees, so don’t expect early July 4th fireworks…but also don’t shy away from going to the Gyork Store when the price is this low.

Other Notables

Justin Turner (LAD): $3,900 vs. PIT

Shortstop

Jorge Polanco (MIN): $3,000 @ MIL

As I mentioned earlier, Polanco is back from his long suspension today and his price is very reflective of someone who hasn’t seen MLB pitching since Spring Training. It’s a good idea to get in now while the price is extremely affordable and there is playing time to be had. I expect him to slot right back into the middle of the Twins order and he could give that lineup a bit of a boost with his return.

Other Notables

Daniel Robertson (TAM): $3,000 @ MIA (also 2B eligible)

Outfield

Noel Cuevas (COL): $2,800 vs. SF

Want some Coors Field exposure on the cheap? Here you go! Cuevas will likely hit near the bottom of the order and the matchup isn’t great, but people love to stack Coors and he could be popular for that reason. If you need salary relief, you could do worse, but that’s the angle here. He’s cheap.

Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE): $3,400 @ KC

Chisenhall has been in the lineup quite a bit recently as the Indians have seen a long streak of right-handed pitching over the past couple weeks. In that span, he’s been sporting high hard contact and flyball rates along with some nice batted ball distances. He’s a platoon guy and his 2018 numbers are following that track. This season he’s hitting .325 off RHP with a .368 wOBA and 133 wRC+ and Cleveland is expected to score five runs tonight.

Austin Jackson $3,500/Austin Slater (SFG): $3,900 @ COL

Both Austins are in play at Coors where we should see some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Both of these guys prefer lefties with Jackson having a much longer career track record compared to Slater’s 31 plate appearances this season. That said, with just a third of those being against southpaws, Slater makes a case to play him today with his only extra-base hits coming against lefties. He’s been smoking the ball since joining the Giants with a lot of hard contact and solid batted ball distances. In limited playing time, he’s racked up six hits in his last three games but his price tag is a little high.

Other Notables

Brett Gardner (NYY): $3,700 vs. ATL
Chris Taylor (LAD): $3,700 vs. PIT (also SS eligible)

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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.

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