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DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (7/30)

DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (7/30)

This Monday’s DraftKings slate offers up nine games with some surprisingly appetizing pitching options. A popular roster construction will be paying up for one of the top tier arms. There are some sneaky pivot options and bargain bats available. Here are some players on the cheap side who may be able to lighten our salary cap concerns and make it easier to get up to the expensive studs and stacks. Ready? Let’s go!

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Pitcher

Derek Holland (SFG): $7,600 @ SD

Robbie Ray (ARI) has a nice matchup as a massive favorite, but I’d rather use him in cash games. If you’re looking for a low-owned pivot in tournaments, Holland (-106) sets up for the perfect pivot play at $400 less with a solid matchup. The Padres have been a model of consistency this season, but for the worse, steadily striking out at 24% clip and failing to eclipse the .300 mark for team wOBA vs LHP all year long.

Other Notables

Edwin Jackson (OAK): $6,300 vs. TOR

Catcher

John Ryan Murphy (ARI): $3,200 vs. TEX

Here is where I mention how terrible Martin Perez is and that I can’t believe he’s still actually collecting MLB paychecks…more on that in a moment. Let’s actually give Murphy some credit, he’s punched a .239 ISO and .329 wOBA versus southpaws this season so I really hope he’s in the lineup tonight. He’s fully in play in cash games, but has more appeal as a start of a D-Backs wrap-around stack or a bottom-of-the-order stack.

Other Notables

Max Stassi (HOU): $3,000 @ SEA

First Base

Justin Bour (MIA): $4,000 vs. ATL

Bour stretches the term value, but he’s been priced too low all season. Tonight’s matchup against Julio Teheran is tantalizing considering how mightily the Brave’s hurler struggles when it comes to getting lefties out. Bour is also sporting some nice batted ball data of late, smashing elevated flyball and hard hit rates to go along with some sexy exit velocities. So many 1B are clustered at the same price point, Bour is who I’m using.

Other Notables

Matt Olson (OAK): $4,000 vs. TOR

Second Base

Chase d’Arnaud (SFG): $3,300 @ SD (also 3B eligible)

The sample size is very small, with just 22 plate appearances at the big league level versus lefties. But d’Arnaud has been making southpaws pay, sporting a robust .318 ISO, .482 wOBA and 210 wRC+ against them. Eric Lauer isn’t exactly a world beater, and with these early splits and the likelihood of him leading off for the Giants, I can’t find enough to take me off of d.Arnaud. I wouldn’t have an issue using him in cash games either.

Other Notables

Dee Gordon (SEA): $3,400 vs. HOU (also OF eligible)

Third Base

Mike Moustakas (MIL): $3,700 @ LAD

The Mous is loose in Milwaukee and he should slot right into the three spot for the Brewers. The price is depressed and the matchup is nice, making for a fantastic value play today. Moustakas has always put up numbers against RHP and 2018 has proven no different with his .246 ISO, .338 wOBA and 113 wRC+ against them coming into tonight’s contest in L.A. He makes for a nice play amidst a lackluster group at the hot corner.

Other Notables

Christian Villanueva (SD): $3,900 vs. SF

Shortstop

J.T. Riddle (MIA): $3,000 @ ATL

OK, back to how bad Julio Teheran is against lefty bats. Did you know Teheran’s K% and BB% are nearly identical against lefties this season? It’s true! Both marks hover just above 17.5% while the FIP and xFIP are both approaching 6 runs with an absolutely absurd 88% strand rate. While the base runners are overdue to come around at a more rapid regression beat, Teheran’s woeful numbers versus lefties is just the same old song.

Other Notables

Dansby Swanson (ATL): $3,800 vs. MIA

Outfield

Austin Slater (SFG): $3,800 @ SD

Slater will probably hit in the two hole just behind Chase d’Arnaud and that’s a solid role against Eric Lauer. In the past couple weeks, Slater has some impressive batted ball metrics including elevated exit velocities and batted ball distances to go with a spiked hard-hit rate. The pair of he and d’Arnaud make for an excellent mini-stack at the top of the Giants order while Slater will probably

Melky Cabrera (CLE): $3,800 @ MIN

The Tribe are projected to score upwards of five runs today per Vegas totals, but there is a sneaky bat in that lineup that may go overlooked. I’m speaking of the Melk Man. After signing late and getting off to a sluggish start, Cabrera has posted some nice batted ball data of late. Good hard contact and exit velocities are showing that he’s getting good wood on the ball. Solid BvP history in the middle of that lineup puts him in play.

Magneuris Sierra (MIA): $3,500 @ ATL

See Teheran, Julio vs. Left-Handed bats. Look, Magneuris is a cool name, that’s another reason I threw him in here. Seriously though, I really like the Marlins left bats tonight in SunTrust Park. It’s still a little early to label this ballpark anything definitive, but in its brief existence thus far, it’s certainly played to boost power to lefties at the plate. The bottom of the Miami order could also make a sneaky stack with a pair of pricey pitchers.

Other Notables

Marcell Ozuna/Dexter Fowler (STL): $3,700 each vs. COL
Jake Cave (MIN): $3,300 vs. CLE

Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.

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