DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Tuesday (7/10)
In this edition of Value Plays, we see a ton of value pitchers, and only a few true aces (Trevor Bauer, Justin Verlander). This situation in itself should make for a wide variety of plays and strategies, and I list out a few of my best ideas below. There are a few guys with great strikeout upside, but also have the ability to implode. Based on their situations, I think the reward will outweigh the risk. Coors is also in play tonight, so I offer a pitcher at a lower price to make room for the Rockies and Diamondbacks that you’d like to put in your lineup. To compensate for the Coors hitters, you can target the Cardinals and Dodgers lineups, in addition to all the powerhouse lineups.
Rich Hill (LAD): $8,600 @ SD
Hill is as fragile as they come, exiting with neck stiffness in his previous start. However, he threw his normal bullpen session over the weekend and felt fine. If you are playing in a GPP contest, Hill is likely to be severely under-owned due to health concerns. Even if Hill is forced to come out early again, he can provide you with 7+ strikeouts in five innings, and will likely give up less than three earned runs in a tremendous pitcher’s park. Given that they are facing the Padres at Petco, he is also expected to get points from a win. In the best case scenario, he goes seven innings and strikes out 12. Hill is not the way to go as your SP2 in cash games, but we will get to that in the other notables section.
Garrett Richards (LAA): $8,400 vs. SEA
Let me know if you’ve heard this one before – an oft-injured pitcher with high strikeout potential is throwing in an extreme pitcher’s park. Last time around, Richards faced the Mariners and dominated them over 5+ innings. He’s struck out at least seven batters in three of his last four starts. Again, this is probably not the play in a cash game, but he is likely to be under-owned in GPP, and he needs to be heavily considered.
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS): $8,400 vs. TEX – Safer floor, but likely not quite as high of a ceiling as the two listed above. Great for cash.
Aaron Slegers (MIN): $7,300 vs. MIN – If you can’t stomach the injury risk, Slegers should be in line for a win against the Royals.
Sandy Leon (BOS): $3,300 vs. TEX
Leon is now the primary catcher due to Christian Vasquez’s stint on the DL, and the Red Sox’ lineup is primed to feast on Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo has performed well over this past couple starts, but the Tiger and White Sox lineups are not quite the same as the dynamic Red Sox offense. With that said, Gallardo has an 8.17 ERA in seven appearances (four starts). Red Sox hitters will be expensive tonight, but you can still go after the lesser known guys in their lineup.
Francisco Cervelli (PIT): $3,500 vs. WAS
Ryon Healy (SEA): $3,700 @ LAA
Healy is sneakily up to 18 homers, and just homered off of Gerritt Richards last week. Most of the other first basemen in this middle tier have some bad platoon scenarios (Eric Hosmer vs. Hill), in a big-time slump (Jose Abreu), or are facing a dominant pitcher (Matt Olson).
Albert Pujols (LAA): $3,700 vs. SEA
On the other side of the diamond, Pujols hammers Mike Leake, as he is 7-for-19 lifetime against him with three walks. Pujols is not what he used to be, but the pickings are slim at under $4k.
Brock Holt (BOS): $3,400 vs. TEX
Much like Leon, Holt will not provide much in terms of power, but he is quietly hitting .296 this year with a .778 OPS and 114 wRC+. Facing Gallardo should provide Holt with plenty of RBI and run opportunities, and he will boost your point totals if you can include a guy like Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, or JD Martinez in your lineup. He can even slide in at shortstop, in case you want to get DJ Lemahieu in, who slugs the crud out of Patrick Corbin.
Luis Valbuena (LAA): $3,300 vs. SEA
Valbuena absolutely crushes Mike Leake, to the tune of 12-for-28 with three doubles and three walks. If you are looking for a contrarian stack, it lies somewhere in a Pujols/ Valbuena sundae with Mike Trout as the cherry on top.
Matt Duffy (TB): $3,600 vs. DET – Opposing starter Matt Boyd has struggled recently, and Duffy gets on base quite a bit
Adrian Beltre (TEX): $3,600 @ BOS – Beltre has hit .357 against lefties this year
Andrelton Simmons (LAA): $3,800 vs. SEA
Simmons is looking to earn his spot in the All-Star Game in the Final Vote, and he hammers Leake (9-for-24, homer). At a broader level, he is having a career year at the plate, hitting .307 with an .805 OPS and 126 wRC+.
Dansby Swanson (ATL): $3,400 vs. TOR – Opposing pitcher Marcus Stroman has been awful, and the Braves lineups should score a lot. Plus, Swanson’s DraftKings picture is just begging you to pick him…
Willy Adames (TB): $3,400 vs. DET – The exciting young player is also facing the struggling Boyd
It’s surprising to see a Rockies’ outfielder in the sub-$4k category when they are playing at Coors, but life is weird and here we are. Gonzalez has two multi-hit games in a row, and his triple-slash at home is .323/.370.581. Gonzalez does not hit lefties all that well, but when you’re hot, it doesn’t matter who you’re facing as much. Parra does not hit lefties all that well either, but making room for hitters at Coors is a smart strategy.
Adam Jones (BAL): $3,500 vs. NYY
Jones clobbers Tanaka – he is 11-for-27 with three homers and two doubles. Jones is having a slightly below average season by his standards, but he still has double-digit homers. He only has 33 RBI, but it’s not his fault that his team, outside of Mr. Trade Rumor himself, Manny Machado, cannot hit the baseball.
Marcell Ozuna (STL): $3,500 @ CWS
I swear I write about Ozuna every other week here. Ozuna is facing rookie Dylan Covey, who has fallen off a cliff since his last couple of starts. He is hitting .275 both in the past month and overall on the season, and he’s in double-digit homers as well. If you need an outfielder for cash games, he is your man.
Be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB. Go get ’em!