After a brief hiatus, I am back again to help you with your value plays on DraftKings. The great Dan Harris loves to relate fantasy baseball to his real life, and is quite good at it. If I were to apply Dan’s concepts to my own writing, I would be telling you how fantasy baseball is a lot like prepping to get married and moving to a big city. Well, I’m not sure if fantasy baseball is like any of those things (and that just might be one of the reasons why we play it). All kidding aside, you will not hear from me for a week or two as I take some time away from the fantasy game. FantasyPros will continue to provide you top-rate coverage in my absence, so be sure to keep reading. Now, on to the slate.
The last day of July features a 14-game slate, but does not feature a lot of top-notch pitching. Due to this, there are a few mid-tier options that you can leverage to your liking, whether that be cash or prize pool games. Coors is not in play, and there are no hard and fast gas cans on the hill that you can take advantage of, other than Homer Bailey. This slate is going to require some planning, but stick to your roots. Hm, now that sounds like marriage advice!
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Pitcher
Danny Duffy (KC): $7,700 @ CWS
Mr. Duffy has been rock solid over the past month, except for his most recent start against the Tigers. From June 9 until his last start, he pitched at least six innings and posted five 7+ strikeout games. He gets the White Sox on Tuesday in a pitcher’s park, and he should be able to dominate them from start to finish given his recent run. Duffy makes for a nice play in GPP, given his high strikeout totals recently and the potential to dominate a weak team.
Trevor Cahill (OAK): $7,400 vs. TOR
Cahill has been dubbed a top-25 pitcher on this site by a couple of different writers on this site. The issue is that he just cannot seem to stay healthy. The good news is that he seems to be healthy now after coming off the DL a week ago. While he was rusty in his first start on the road against the Rangers, Cahill is pitching in his home park against the Blue Jays, who rank 22nd in the league in average. The Blue Jays rank in the top ten in homers, but Cahill gets a good chunk of ground balls (58%) and allows 0.71 HR/9. Cahill is a good bet in cash games.
Other Notables
Jameson Taillon (PIT): $7,800 vs. CHC – Cubs struggle to hit quality pitching, and Taillon is back on track after a rough start to the season.
Catcher
Yan Gomes (CLE): $3,200 @ MIN
Gomes is 12-for-27 lifetime against righty Kyle Gibson, and four of those hits are of the extra base variety. Gomes is far from hot, but he did hit a homer on Sunday and bats in a fantastic lineup. However, Roberto Perez has served as Trevor Bauer‘s personal catcher, so he likely will not enter the game until the later innings. If you cannot accept that risk, see below.
Other Notables
Kurt Suzuki (ATL): $3,500 vs. MIA – much more consistent than Gomes, and also hits Marlins’ pitcher Dan Straily well in a small sample
Sandy Leon (BOS): $2,900 vs. PHI – you just get the feeling that the Sawx will pound Jake Arrieta, so getting shares is crucial
First Base
Matt Olson (OAK): $4,100 vs. TOR
Olson is your man in GPP games for value plays. He mashes righties, and Sam Gaviglio is a righty who has not fared so well in 2018. Olson has a great chance to hit a homer on Tuesday, and he likely won’t be highly owned since he is hitting in The Coliseum.
Joe Mauer (MIN): $3,400 vs. CLE
Mauer looks to be a great play in cash games. He is 13-for-40 against Trevor Bauer, which includes seven doubles. Granted, Bauer is a different pitcher than in previous years, and Mauer has been sapped of his power, but Mauer has been hitting near the top of the lineup most of this year and has proven effective with a .361 OBP. Eddie Rosario and others will certainly have chances to drive him in.
Personally, I will be going with a big-name first baseman, as there are a lot of star hitters (Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion) who have great stats against the probable pitchers, or have nice matchups against recently activated starters (Carlos Santana vs. Drew Pomeranz).
Second Base
Jonathan Schoop (BAL): $4,200 @ NYY
Sure, this is a higher dollar amount for Schoop than usual. But, there are four aspects that are intertwined here: 1) Yankee Stadium is a homer haven 2) Schoop has seven homers in the past two weeks 3) Masahiro Tanaka gives up a lot of homers 4) Jonathan Schoop is hitting .290 against Tanaka with three homers in 31 AB’s. You put these four things together, and you get a happy outlook for Schoopy. Plus, it seems that most of the second baseman are completely overvalued on Tuesday.
Other Notables
Niko Goodrum (DET): $3,700 vs. CIN – Homer Bailey is bad.
Third Base
Jeimer Candelario (DET) $4,100 vs. CIN
See the point above. Plus, Candelario hits near the top of the order almost every game behind Nicholas Castellanos. It’s all about getting a piece of the pie, and I want any pie that Homer Bailey is serving. Candelario’s seasonal numbers might not be awe-inspiring, but he has 101 wRC+ and a .192 ISO.
Other Notables
Yolmer Sanchez (CWS): $3,700 vs. KC – if you don’t go with Duffy, this is a good matchup (.791 OPS against Duffy lifetime)
Shortstop
Andrelton Simmons (LAA): $4,000 @ TB
Simmons has been a rock star at the dish this year, and starting pitcher matchups hardly matter against the Rays. With a batting average over .300 and 52 runs scored, he has a good chance to accumulate points against a rag-tag group of Rays’ pitchers.
Other Notables
Brock Holt (BOS): $3,500 vs. PHI – just getting a piece of the Arrieta pie. Something about pies today. Football must be around the corner.
Outfield
Lorenzo Cain (MIL): $4,200 @ LAD
Eddie Rosario (MIN): $4,200 vs. CLE
Nicholas Castellanos (DET): $4,100 vs. CIN
All three of these stars have below-market price tags for their services, and it’s up to you to take advantage. Cain is facing Walker Buehler, who has run into some roadblocks in his rookie season, most recently coughing up five runs to the Phillies last week. From an intangible perspective, you know that Cain is chomping at the bit to play with longtime teammate Mike Moustakas again, and I bet that gives him an extra boost this week.
Rosario mashes Bauer, to the tune of 12-for-30 with two homers and a double. Rosario is ranked in the top 20 in all of fantasy baseball, so he can definitely make Bauer pay for any mistakes he makes.
Castellanos is the beneficiary of facing Homer Bailey, and a Tigers stack would be quite contrarian, and potentially also quite pleasant. He has been in a funk lately, but he is a professional hitter and will grind out at-bats any way he can.
Other Notables
Tony Kemp (HOU): $3,900 @ SEA
Josh Reddick (HOU): $3,800 @ SEA – time to pick on Mike Leake
Be sure to pay close attention to the lineups when they are released and monitor the weather leading up to game time. For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB. Go get ’em!
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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.
