Here’s the thing about podcasting. Things go haywire sometimes.
Sometimes you’re in the middle of a podcast and your kids start throwing a tantrum right when you’re making a salient point. Sometimes you have a bad opening and you decide that it might just be easier to start from the top again.
But other times you nail the whole episode. You and the other participants in the podcast are on top of everything, rarely missing a beat. The banter is real, the takes are sincere, and the information relevant. And after you hit the sack knowing that things went well, you wake up the next morning to learn that something went wrong with the recording and the episode will never air.
That’s what happened over the All-Star break with my buddy, Bobby Sylvester. Bobby has had me on as a guest dozens of times, but this would have been one of my favorite episodes. Without games going on every day, it was a time to just sit and reflect on everything that had gone on thus far in the 2018 season, without needing to react to something that was happening at that very minute. We were both bummed at the technical glitches.
But on the bright side, the discussions we had over players who would be moving up and down our rankings in the next few days never aired. Which means I can lay it all out in this week’s trade chart article without feeling repetitive, obnoxious, or wordy. Well, without feeling repetitive at least.
Anyway, time is running short to make that critical deal that could be the difference between a championship season and one that leaves you wondering what could have been. So before you make any deal, make sure to check out our trade chart for Week 17.
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The Injury Movers
Unfortunately, it’s mostly bad news in the injury department this week. Both Blake Snell and James Paxton were placed on the disabled list since our last update. Of the two, Snell’s injury appears to be the most benign, as his “shoulder fatigue” does not appear to be related to any structural damage. Snell was on pace for more than 200 innings pitched prior to the injury, when his previous high was 177 1/3 innings last season. That wouldn’t have been a huge jump, but given that the Rays are unlikely to make the playoffs, there was no reason to push Snell. Assume he makes it back within a week or two, though there is always uncertainty.
As for Paxton, well it’s death, taxes, and a James Paxton injury, amirite? Paxton looked ready to return from his back injury only to be scratched shortly before his start on Tuesday. As with Snell, this does not sound serious, but there is zero reason to be optimistic about any Paxton injury. Be cautious, of course.
The news is a bit worse for two hitters with significant injury developments: Kris Bryant and Gary Sanchez. Bryant has a sore shoulder and he could even play Thursday. But let’s walk through the season so far for the young third baseman. A surprising and nearly total lack of power despite little change in his batted ball profile, followed by a short disabled list due to a sore shoulder that has apparently bothered him for most of the season, followed by a brief return, followed by a potential disabled list stint because of his same sore shoulder. I don’t know what’s wrong with Bryant’s shoulder, but he’s making plenty of contact, pulling the ball more than half the time, and is being out-homered by Nick Ahmed. I’m not buying right now unless it’s dirt cheap and I need to swing for the fences.
As for Sanchez, a lack of hustle turned out to be a reaggravation of his groin injury. According to Brian Cashman, Sanchez should return at the end of August or beginning of September. That means that owners should be looking at about a month’s worth of production from Sanchez if everything goes right. Of course, one month of Sanchez is easily worth half a season of most catchers, so he retains value. But he’s not anywhere near where he was, even while on his most recent disabled list stint.
The Performance Movers
Let’s keep it real simple with Zack Greinke. He’s on pace to finish the season at 17-8 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and 218 strikeouts in 205 2/3 innings. Since he allowed five earned runs against the Pirates on June 13th, he’s allowed eight earned runs . . . in his next seven starts. He doesn’t get the credit he deserves. Although he’s not quite in the Max Scherzer/Chris Sale class, his utter reliability and consistency is worth the price needed to pay to acquire him.
I’m not breaking any news here – I just think it’s fun to look at the numbers. Over Matt Carpenter‘s preposterous six-game stretch recently, he had eight home runs and slashed .550/.625/1.900. If you’re a Carpenter owner, this is surely how you felt toward him while this was going on:
It may have taken that torrid stretch to make fantasy owners realize just how good Carpenter has been since his dreadful start, but everyone is now fully aware. Since June 1, so we’re talking less than two months here, he has 18 home runs, 44 runs scored, and a .324 batting average. And he’s got multi-position eligibility. And he had a six-game stretch with a 1.900 slugging percentage. Yes, I know I said that before, but come on!
Our final riser is Javier Baez. On our forever lost to the interwebs podcast episode, I discussed with Bobby how a reader called me out for Baez’s low value on the trade chart, and how I took another look and simply had not appreciated just how dominant a season he was having. His 74 RBI is tied with Eugenio Suarez for tops in the National League, behind only J.D. Martinez in the majors. He’s ninth in the game in steals, 20th in runs scored, and 26th in home runs, all from a middle infield position. Now, I don’t really understand how you put up all those numbers, and particularly a .293 batting average when you have a 3.6% walk rate. That’s sixth-worst among qualified hitters. I just keep waiting for scouting reports to go back to that old “throw it out of the strike zone when Baez is up” mantra. But, in the meantime, there is no denying just how incredible he’s been. So, to that reader, I offer a mea culpa. Thanks for calling me out.
Unfortunately, there have also been some performance fallers. I’m officially worried about Corey Kluber. Kluber has allowed six, three, zero, six, and seven runs in his last five starts. He had some sort of injection in his knee over the break, which obviously didn’t seem to help his issue. His swinging strike rate is the lowest it’s been since 2013, and the Indians are four seconds away from having the AL Central sewn up, meaning there would be no reason to push Kluber. His value doesn’t plummet by any means, but it’s less than it was a few weeks ago.
Same too for Madison Bumgarner. The big lefty has now made nine starts on the season, and although his ERA is a respectable 3.19, things aren’t going well. We’re talking a 4.00 FIP, a 4.49 xFIP, a nine percent swinging strike rate and fewer than eight strikeouts per nine innings. The truth is, Bumgarner hasn’t been right since his shoulder injury last season. If we’re talking a one-game playoff, I’d probably take Bumgarner even at this compromised version. But for the rest of the season? Color me concerned if you were still counting on him to be a true ace.
Blind comparison. Here are the statistics for five players:
- Player A: .317-80-36-107-3
- Player B: .290-88-30-101-0
- Player C: .293-67-25-100-0
- Player D: .304-95-33-102-3
- Player E: .252-75-22-88-2
Fine, they’re all the same player. The first four are Jose Abreu‘s statistics from 2014-2017. Player E’s stats represent Abreu’s on-pace numbers in 2018. Since June 1, Abreu has batted .200/.264/.343 with five home runs. I get that Abreu has been the model of consistency, but fantasy owners should no longer just accept that he’ll hit a huge hot streak to bring his numbers back to where we all expected them to be.
Finally, there’s Jose Martinez. Martinez has had a roller coaster season and has a respectable slash line of .295/.358/.464. But his playing time going forward is entirely uncertain because of his shoddy defense. To be fair, he has started each of the last five games after riding the bench for the previous four, so it’s possible that the playing time concerns are unfounded. But with such uncertainty and with a bat that is merely acceptable, but not dominant, for fantasy purposes, Martinez loses most of his value.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.
