Welcome to the second half of the 2018 MLB season, but, more importantly, welcome back to a digestible week of Fantasy Baseball. Week 16 was, to put it mildly, absolute insanity. With the All-Star Break blocking off three full days of the MLB calendar, we were treated to our second 11-day week of this Fantasy Baseball campaign; and it was one stuffed to the brim with rainouts, trades, and injuries. Honestly, if you were in a lock league setting, you might as well of been drawing your team from a hat. So, with such exact and specific methods of roster construction readily available in your nearest closet, I took a few weeks off. It was boring. Meaning, I’m more than excited to get back into the flow of the season. Week 17, we’re coming for you.

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Don’t Think Twice

Aaron Nola (7/30 @BOS, 8/5 vs. MIA)
Gerrit Cole (7/30 @SEA, 8/5 @LAD)
James Paxton (7/30 vs. HOU, 8/4 vs. TOR)
Kenta Maeda (7/30 vs. MIL, 8/4 vs. HOU)
Jon Lester (7/31 @PIT, 8/5 vs. SD)
Tyler Skaggs (7/31 @TB, 8/5 @CLE)
David Price (7/30 vs. PHI, 8/5 vs. NYY)
Robbie Ray (7/30 vs. TEX, 8/5 vs. SF)

Widely-Owned Options

J.A. Happ (7/31 vs. BAL, 8/5 @BOS)
As of writing this, there is zero certainty that Happ will actually make this start on Tuesday. He might, in fact, start sometime this weekend, as he was scheduled to pitch Saturday for Toronto. In any case, I’ll side on the Yankees giving their newest member some time to acclimatize himself with Austin Romine. Plus, if he does make the outing next week, he just struck out nine Orioles in five innings in his farewell performance for the Jays. Boston’s less appealing, but you’re still rolling with Happ in pinstripes.

Danny Duffy (7/31 @CWS, 8/5 @MIN)
The past nine starts for Duffy have been about as diametrically opposed as you could possibly get. In six of the nine, he’s allowed just a single earned run or fewer. In the other three, he’s surrendered at least six. However, the real take away here should be the strikeouts, not the inconsistency. Duffy kind of looks like himself again, racking up 59 strikeouts in his last 56.2 innings – most of that success reliant on an uptick in fastball velocity and the reemergence of his curveball. Sure, there’s some risk of him ruining your ratios, but a juicy matchup with the White Sox to start the week is too good to ignore.

Jon Gray (7/31 @STL, 8/5 @MIL)
The Baseball Gods have finally taken some pity on poor Jon Gray. Apparently, all it took was a trip to the minors. Anyway, he’s back and not only has he been fantastic in his two latest starts, but he’s done so against decent competition at Coors Field. Want to know the secret to triumph in altitude? Keep the ball on the ground. It’s exactly what Gray has done since his recall, managing a massive 66.7% groundball rate to this point in July. Not to mention the whole 11.09 K/9 and 3.00 FIP that’s two full runs lower than his ERA for the season in its entirety. Gray still carries the lowest strand rate in the National League despite still striking out 9.32 opposing batters per nine with RISP. If there’s any justice in the world, he has an amazing second-half, which obviously includes getting away from Denver in Week 17.

Jack Flaherty (7/31 vs. COL, 8/5 @PIT)
Volume has not exactly been Flaherty’s strength across his last six outings. Though his strikeout ratios have remained pristine, the 22-year-old seems to have hit a bit of a wall, failing to work more than five innings in all but one of those starts. That’s clearly not ideal. Yet, we’ll always keep coming back for those strikeouts. Really, it’s hard not to see why in the specific case of Flaherty. Among the 110 pitchers to have tossed 80-plus frames in 2018, only 10 can boast a K/9 above 11.00 and the Cardinals’ rookie is one of those fortunate few. Factor in Colorado’s .300 team wOBA away from Coors and the always pitcher-friendly PNC Park and you’ve roped me in for at least one more week in the circle of trust.

Tyler Anderson (7/30 @STL, 8/4 @MIL)
Here are Anderson’s numbers going back to June 7th: 2.08 ERA, 3.34 FIP, .247 wOBA, and a 25.2% strikeout rate. You won’t find many pitchers currently in better recent form. Not to mention that six of those nine outings have come with the Rockies playing at home. Well, Anderson, like Gray, won’t have to deal with the nightmare-inducing crime against pitchers that is Coors Field in Week 17. Considering he’s held opponents to just a .284 wOBA and 0.99 home runs per nine in his starts on the road in 2018 – that’s an extremely good proposition. Especially with the Brewers carrying a modest 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this year.

Anibal Sanchez (7/31 vs. MIA, 8/5 vs. NYM)
He got roughed up a little bit Thursday night against the Dodgers, but, considering they entered yesterday’s action with National League bests in both wRC+ (120) and wOBA (.346), I’m willing to give Sanchez a free pass. Now, that’s not to say I haven’t been waiting with open arms for the 34-year-old’s numbers to start regressing, yet, even with his FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, a 3.97 figure isn’t exactly unappealing. Add in the fact that Sanchez’s 84.5mph average exit velocity through 12 starts was the second-lowest mark in baseball, and you’ve got a pretty compelling case to believe the veteran can make some noise against the bottom half of the NL East next week.

Rich Hill (7/31 vs. MIL, 8/5 vs. HOU)
Look, trying to project out the Dodgers’ rotation a full week, let alone the health or viability of Hill is a fool’s errand. Dave Robert’s mind is a dark and scary place where the mound visits are plentiful and the umpires enjoy his company. I mean, Walker Buehler was called up to start Wednesday and hasn’t been sent back down as of writing this, so there’s a reasonable chance that he finds his way back into spot-start duty at some point in Week 17. If that occurs, it’ll come at the cost of Hill’s two-start week, not Maeda’s. Anyway, Hill looked fantastic Thursday, shutting out the Braves for seven innings and racking up eight strikeouts. This, coming on the heels of a nine strikeout performance last week. He’s healthy, he’s in a groove, and if there’s any chance he only starts one game in Week 17, let’s all hope its against Milwaukee.

In the Danger Zone

Freddy Peralta (7/30 @LAD, 8/4 vs. COL)
I’ll say this right off the top: there are much worse risks to take than someone with immense strikeout upside in any given start. That’s what Peralta is in Week 17. He’s a lottery ticket that already has two matching sections scratched off. Still, with his ceiling as high as it is, sometimes you’re too busy looking up to see the floor. To put it simply, I just really don’t like how he matches up with the Dodgers. As mentioned above, Los Angeles came into Thursday holding the highest wRC+ and wOBA of any National League squad in the month of July, a time frame, it should be noted, where they’ve only partially employed Manny Machado. With Peralta essentially living and dying on strikeouts, its stands to reason that the team with baseball’s lowest chase rate by a wide margin (26.2%) isn’t the place to go hunting for swings and misses. Yes, you could argue that Peralta generates many swinging strikes in the zone, his 81.3% zone contact rate would rank him among the league leaders had he the innings to qualify, but the Dodgers also possess MLB’s fifth-lowest swinging strike rate. Again, I’m not saying he can’t do great things, but Peralta’s a pitcher with many variables. I’d be inclined to sit him Monday if I had the means.

Mike Leake (7/31 vs. HOU, 8/5 vs. TOR)
Here’s a piece of pointless trivia: who leads the league in batted ball events among pitchers? Well, through the virtue of this being a segmented written document with a player’s name headlining each section, I’m sure you internet sleuths have deduced that Mike Leake is the answer, but let that sink in for a moment. While part of that is a testament to Leake’s consistency of pitching every fifth day without fail, that also essentially means Leake leaves his ratios and success up to elements outside his control more than any other pitcher in baseball. The issue with that? Most directly to fantasy, no qualified pitcher under the age of 44 (Love you, Bartolo) has a lower K/9 than Leake. Secondly, by fWAR, the Mariners have the fifth-worst defense in all of baseball. I wouldn’t be caught dead with that combination of factors on my fantasy team, yet, for 27% of you on Yahoo!, that seems to be the case. Don’t be like 27% of people on Yahoo!, alright?

Streamers Under 50%

Shane Bieber (7/30 @MIN, 8/5 vs. LAA)
Tanner Roark (7/31 vs. NYM, 8/5 vs. CIN)
Ervin Santana (7/30 vs. CLE, 8/5 vs. KC)

Not the most inspiring crop of top-end streaming options in a 10-team setting, yet I’ve always been partial to Bieber. Maybe it’s the constant comparisons to Corey Kluber or maybe it’s his immaculate control, but there’s something that keeps bringing me back to the rookie – even after he was savaged by the red-hot Pittsburgh Pirates earlier this week. Everything about him just screams “above-average.” His 22.6% strikeout rate through eight starts is more than acceptable, as is his 3.61 FIP. In fact, his 4.1% walk rate would be the third-lowest in baseball had Bieber the innings to qualify. Really, he’s sort of the anthesis of the aforementioned Freddy Peralta. Where Milwaukee’s rookie is all ceiling, Cleveland’s is all floor. At this point in the Fantasy Baseball calendar, I guess how you see the pair reflects how much catching up your team has to do across the year’s final two months.

Streamers Under 25%

Ryan Borucki (7/30 @OAK, 8/4 @SEA)
James Shields (7/31 vs. KC, 8/5 @TB)

I’ve watched most of Borucki’s starts at the major league level and while he’s no superstar, I feel like I’ve seen enough, even with his faults, to recommend his usage in deeper formats. His 93.7% zone contact rate scares the heck out of me; he doesn’t possess a great deal of strikeout upside; and Toronto has a horrible defense behind him – but you can only ignore solid performances against Houston, New York, and a recently surging Minnesota team for so long. Borucki has a 2.61 FIP over his first 29 innings in MLB; he’s consistently shown the ability to maintain a 50% or better groundball rate in the minors; and he’s yet to allow a home run despite making three of his career starts at Rogers Centre. Factor that in with a Seattle team that has produced just a .119 ISO and .281 wOBA in the month on July, and I’ll decree that Week 17 is the time to take notice of young Ryan Borucki.

Not Unless You’re Desperate

Dan Straily
Edwin Jackson
Eric Lauer
Wade Miley
Chris Stratton
Martin Perez
Wei-Yin Chen
Corey Oswalt

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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.