Welcome to July 2018! We can now officially look at most player’s stats and double them, but the most important piece is assessing how your current roster projects against the competition given your respective strengths and weaknesses. How many points do you need to capture first and what is the easiest route there? Bonus points if you can make a trade that both helps you and helps a lesser team overtake first place in key categories. But for now, we’ll address needs via the trusty waiver wire!
Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo leagues and, along with the stats, are accurate through July 2.
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Priority Pickups – <30% Owned
Will Smith (SF – SP/RP): 24% owned
Giants manager Bruce Bochy has a reputation for seeking out “a guy” to handle closer duties, and right now it looks to be Smith. With Mark Melancon unable to handle such a workload and Sam Dyson struggling, to put it nicely, Smith has notched the save in San Fran’s last two save opps, with Tony Watson setting him up. Reyes Moronta is another low-owned commodity that could wiggle into the mix, but my hierarchy is Smith, Melancon, Watson, Moronta, Dyson.
Jorge Polanco (MIN – SS): 12% owned
The Twins have had very little to get excited about in 2018 (sans Eddie Rosario, praise be). Polanco has completed his 80-game PED suspension and was immediately penciled in as the starting shortstop and batted fifth on Monday night. He slugged a homer while going 8-for-19 during his minor league tuneup and while you can worry about how much of his August and September tear (.316/.377/.553 with 10 HRs and seven steals) from ’17 was fueled by foreign substances, it costs nothing to find out how much is real.
Joey Lucchesi (SD – SP): 28% owned
Lucchesi has looked near unhittable in his last two starts, combining for nine shutout innings against Texas and Pittsburgh. The Pirates couldn’t even get a ball out of the infield over their five empty innings! The Padres were taking it slowly with their rookie, allowing him to go just 85 pitches on Saturday after hitting a 70-pitch limit the start before. He should be uncapped for a July 6 test against Arizona.
Steven Souza (ARI – OF): 20% owned
Souza has begun playing right field on his rehab assignment after four games DHing (he went 7-for-16 with two steals) and is worth stashing. The possibility of re-injury (or a different injury) looms larger for a man with such a checkered medical chart, but we’ll be optimistic and hope his stealing in the Minors will carry over to the bigs. Arizona’s lineup has remembered how to hit recently and Souza cranked 30 homers with 16 steals for the offensively-challenged Rays in ’17.
Scott Kingery (PHI – 2B/3B/SS/OF): 23% owned
Don’t look now, but Mr. Preseason-Hype-Train-Turned-Flop is coming around. After hitting a homerless .213 with just one RBI, eight runs and one steal over 80 PAs in May, Kingery turned in a .250 average with two homers, three steals and 20 R+RBI. His hard-hit rate had cratered to 19% in May, down from 35.5% in April. It only rebounded to 25% in June, but his line-drive rate nearly tripled (14.3% in May, 35.1% in June) to give him a fighting chance at success. This sounds pretty backhanded, I know. He still has a lot to figure out but a recent eight-game hit streak is enough for me to take a chance on the power-speed threat clicking in the second half.
Jeremy Hellickson (WAS – SP): 27% owned
Hellickson was rusty in his return to the mound on June 30, surrendering three runs on seven hits over 4 2/3 innings against the Phillies. But he missed nearly a month and I almost never hold a bad first start against a previously-injured pitcher unless he shows signs of not being truly over the injury. I didn’t see any red flags, just the rust. He’ll face the Marlins at home on July 5 in a much friendlier matchup.
Nathan Eovaldi (TB – SP): 27% owned
Eovaldi entered Monday’s start against Miami with two masterful outings bookending some mediocre turns in between. While he didn’t add to the “masterful” pile, the fireballer did notch 17 swinging strikes on 92 pitches and hit 99.2 mph with the fastball. He also walked just one alongside five strikeouts and now has 35 Ks to just six walks over 41 1/3 innings. The .211 BABIP will continue to rise (it was .178 entering play) and he’s given up nine homers in seven starts, but he should still be worth a stream against the Mets next.
Marco Estrada (TOR – SP): 21% owned
I cautioned against using Estrada against Houston last week — not that you needed my prodding to avoid the defending champions — and now Marco gets to face the Mets at home on Tuesday. The Mets aren’t a bottom-barrel offense anymore (thanks in large part to a guy we’ll get to shortly), but Estrada is better at home in 2018 and just posted a 2.35 ERA and 0.98 WHIP for the month of June.
Wily Peralta (KC – SP/RP): 15% owned
Call it whatever you want, but Peralta has posted two clean saves and looks to be the favorite for the ninth in a weak Kansas City bullpen. He could put together 10 straight strike-out-the-side ninths and I’d still have some skepticism, but saves are saves and that pays some of your fantasy bills.
Tyler Mahle (CIN – SP): 21% owned
Matt Harvey (CIN – SP): 16% owned
Let’s address this pair of Cincinnati pitchers and why I’m not really buying either, though I understand the surge. Mahle has had his strong starts and hasn’t lost since May 20, and just whiffed a season-high 12 on Saturday. But his overall 1.42 WHIP and homer issues don’t play well for longevity, especially the longball woes considering he calls Great American Ballpark his home.
Meanwhile, Harvey has generated some buzz by hitting 97 mph against the Brew Crew on Sunday en route to his third straight victory — a stretch in which he’s yielded just three runs. I’ll be honest, the 12 swinging strikes on just 68 pitches, especially six whiffs on 18 sliders, impressed me. But his season-high strikeout tally remains six and the capped upside and inability to work deep into games make him a risky proposition with a middling ceiling and low floor.
Dereck Rodriguez (SF – SP): 10% owned
Rodriguez has quickly established himself as more than just the son of an MLB legend, as 6 1/3 scoreless innings in a victory over Arizona on Saturday lowers his ERA to 3.16 (3.35 FIP, 3.98 xFIP and SIERA). The rookie only notched 11 whiffs on 102 pitches, but worked in 24 called strikes to illustrate solid overall command. He’s also walked just three batters over his last four starts. D-Rod calls pitcher-friendly AT&T Park home and is worth the 12-teamer streamer’s time — just don’t expect more than five or six strikeouts alongside friendly ratios.
Deep League Targets – <10% owned
Max Fried (ATL – SP): 4% owned
Fried owned the weekend by striking out 11 Cardinals over 6 2/3 innings on Saturday and now has 17 punchouts over 11 2/3 big-league frames this year. At this point in the season, we can’t ignore guys who flash this kind of upside. Not to mention the No. 7 overall pick in the 2012 draft gets to pitch in the NL East for the Braves, meaning he gets to take full advantage of the division with the lowest OPS.
Jose Bautista (NYM – 3B/OF): 8% owned
Over the last month, Bautista’s 93.9 mph average exit velocity checked in as the seventh-highest mark for a hitter with at least 25 batted balls. This resulted in seven doubles and three homers with 23 R+RBI in just 81 PAs, not to mention the 22.2% walk rate. With Yoenis Cespedes still eons away from rejoining the Mets, it seems Joey Bats is the regular right fielder, and he’s hit safely in eight of 10 contests since finding a concrete place in the lineup. He also returns to Toronto this upcoming series. They say revenge and spite are quite the motivators.
Wilmer Flores (NYM – 1B/2B/3B): 4% owned
Since returning from injury on June 15, Flores has a 10-game hitting streak and has hit safely in 15-of-17 games with three homers and 19 R+RBI in 63 PAs. He’s become known for crushing lefties throughout his career (.804 OPS vs. LHP, .699 OPS vs. RHP) but the script has flipped in ’18. He’s tallied an .867 OPS against righties versus a .610 OPS against southpaws in a ~200-PA sample. That recent improvement plus the body of his work gives him a case to play against all pitchers, so I’d ride the hot hand.
Willians Astudillo (MIN – C/3B): 0% owned
Astudillo had his contract purchased on June 29 and has rattled off at least one hit in each of his three games so far, going 5-for-11 overall. The 26-year-old backstop can slot in both corner infield spots and can even play a little outfield (though it isn’t recommended). The most notable nugget regarding Astudillo that you’ve likely seen already is how he had just nine walks and 14 strikeouts with a .311/.341/.517 slash across 316 career PAs at Triple-A. See if his contact-heavy approach blends with a lively MLB ball to fantasy-relevant results.
German Marquez (COL – SP): 6% owned
With Colorado pitchers, the first thing you need to examine is the home/road splits. Marquez owns a 2.76 ERA with an 18.9% K-BB% in 49 innings away from Coors and a 7.93 ERA with a 10.1% K-BB% in 42 Mile-High frames. He made headlines by carrying a perfect game through five innings against the Dodgers before “settling” for an eight-inning, one-run gem. He hit 99.9 mph with the heater to ring up Enrique Hernandez in the eighth inning! He’ll look to bring more fire into his next outing against the Mariners in Seattle on July 6.
David Fletcher (LAA – 3B/SS): 7% owned
I’ve been burned by chasing steady plate appearances in this Angels lineup before (Ian Kinsler, Kole Calhoun and Zack Cozart, sigh) but Fletcher has a low cost and is the everyday third baseman. After an uninspiring .695 OPS at Double-A and .607 OPS at Triple-A last season (but 20 steals), he delivered a .953 OPS in 58 Triple-A games to earn this promotion. He’s yet to go yard through 40 PAs, but he’s already stolen a base alongside the early .324/.375/.405 slash.
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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.
