And just like that, we are right back in the thick of things. Yes, fantasy baseballers, the All-Star break has come to pass and now we are basically in the final third of the season. As a writer, I still like to use “first-half” and “second-half” descriptors, because it’s an additional way to paint a picture, but it’s disingenuous in 2018. The MLB Trade Deadline bears down upon us and you’ve got about two months to figure out how to lift that trophy. Let’s see who can help you get there.
Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo leagues and, along with the stats, are accurate through July 23.
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Priority Pickups – <30% Owned
Pedro Strop (CHC – RP): 26% owned
Carl Edwards Jr. (CHC – RP): 17% owned
Steve Cishek (CHC – RP): 12% owned
Strop has quietly had a monster 2018 so far, posting a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in as many innings. With Brandon Morrow on the disabled list, Strop finished up a 9-6 victory last Thursday after Cishek worked the seventh and Edwards Jr. held the eighth. Of course, Strop was tagged with the blown save in the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader (Cishek would give up a run later as well) though I read that as him being inserted into the highest-leverage spot.
Morrow’s arm is still “cranky” and Chicago will play it safe after his large load in the 2017 postseason and his recent back spasms, so the opportunity for saves could be here for a couple more weeks. I’ll lean Strop’s way for now, but Cishek’s 50.5% groundball rate, 26.3% strikeout rate and 1.99 ERA/1.08 WHIP combo are shining, shimmering and splendid. Meanwhile, Edwards Jr. has them both beat in sabermetric world thanks to an electrifying 38.7% strikeout rate — the eighth-best mark for a reliever (min. 20 IP) in between Adam Ottavino and Sean Doolittle — which helps fuel the 2.11 FIP and 2.43 SIERA underneath the 3.03 ERA. I don’t think you’ll hate any of them.
Kole Calhoun (LAA – OF): 12% owned
Those who wrote off the ascension of Calhoun as a fluke to be buried in the first half were shown up by his 10th homer of the season. After hitting just three homers across the first three months of the 2018 season, Kole has blasted seven dingers in July. He’s settled nicely into the leadoff role for the Halos and should continue to reap the benefits of hitting before Mike Trout and Justin Upton, though remembering how to knock himself in surely helps. Don’t think this has just come out of thin air, either. His swing now boasts a true power-hitter leg kick instead of a measly hit-for-contact toe tap.
Trevor Cahill (OAK – SP): 19% owned
Cahill’s rust-filled return from a lengthy DL stint didn’t go well against Houston, but his second start showed more polish. He limited the Giants to one run on two hits and three walks with five strikeouts over 5 2/3 frames but settled for the no-decision thanks to his bullpen. The bottom line here is that when healthy, which is a leap with Cahill, he’s one of the best 30 starters in baseball. Maybe even top-25. His 2.95 ERA and 1.02 WHIP come with nearly a strikeout per inning and a 13.2% swinging-strike rate that’s tied with Trevor Bauer for 17th-best among starters with at least 50 IP.
Robert Gsellman (NYM – SP/RP): 29% owned
Even though Gsellman sports a sickly 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over the last 30 days, that can be life as a reliever on occasion. While my trust in his arm has waned since his prior months of looking like a stud RP, he is now a leading candidate in the Mets bullpen-by-committee with Jeurys Familia shipped off to Oakland. Anthony Swarzak and Seth Lugo are worth adding in very deep waters, but Gsellman has locked down two saves over their last 10 games and is the likeliest of anyone to guard a lead in the ninth.
Dereck Rodriguez (SF – SP): 27% owned
Guess what? The D-Rod train isn’t stopping. He kicked off his second half by holding the A’s to one run over 6 1/3 innings in Oakland, yielding three hits and walking none with five strikeouts. I want to believe that anyone savvy enough to read these articles has seen Rodriguez get added (hopefully by them), but the percentage is still simply too low.
His 30-to-7 strikeout-to-walk rate over the last seven appearances (41 innings — six starts, one relief app) shows mediocre whiffs but strong control. While I admit the 4.15 SIERA and 4.17 xFIP are scarier than the 3.13 FIP over that same stretch, AT&T Park can do wonders for a guy. His .269 wOBA at home outkicks the league average of .314, so facing Milwaukee at home next makes for a good test.
Nick Kingham (PIT – SP): 18% owned
Here’s all you need to know: Kingham has posted three quality starts in a row (winning each of them) and he faces the Mets next. I think that warrants a pickup in most formats by itself. But there is more to the story if you’re looking for a long-term investment. Kingham’s control can play in the bigs, but his 14 walks in 57 MLB innings are only helping keep a lid on the 11 homers he’s allowed. It’s worse when you consider that seven of the longballs have come in his last four outings after giving up just four in his first six turns. The Mets should help him get back on track, but it’s a trend worth noting.
Garrett Hampson (COL – 2B/SS): 11% owned
Hampson, Colorado’s third-round pick in 2016, had put together a .309/.379/.453 slash line across 92 games at the Double- and Triple-A levels before being called up as a replacement for the injured DJ LeMahieu. But you’re not buying him simply for average, no. At the moment, his biggest weapon is speed. He’s been successful on 33-of-38 steal attempts this season but has also swatted nine homers so far. Coors Field rarely hurts one’s hitting development so let’s see what the kid can do while filling in for DJL, who hopes to be back in early August, but this is his third DL stint of ’18.
Mike Fiers (DET – SP): 16% owned
Fiers opened the season by doing what he usually does — showing solid control but giving up far too many homers. He’s not the same pitcher as Kingham, but they shared some similarities there. But Fiers has given up just six homers in his last eight starts — which include two matchups against Cleveland, and one each against Houston and Boston — en route to a 2.49 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He’ll look to make it six quality starts in a row on July 27 when he faces Cleveland, yet again.
Ervin Santana (MIN – SP): 25% owned
Santana is set to make his 2018 debut for the Twins on Wednesday against the Blue Jays in Toronto after making seven rehab appearances. The sabermetric-defier allowed 12 runs over 29 innings between High-A and Triple-A, but the 22-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio offers some hope that his plus control remains intact. The issue is how his fastball, which averaged 92.9 mph last year, is just sniffing 90 mph. The Twins believe he can still be effective and that the heat will come back, but it may prove too great a hurdle. Still, he’s more of a finesse guy and may very well make it work.
Daniel Poncedeleon (STL – RP): 13% owned
Dang, it feels good to type that name here. Not only because it’s a rad name, but because it signals his comeback from a frightening head injury due to a line drive. Oh, have I not mentioned that he tossed seven innings of no-hit ball against the Reds in his Major League debut?! Because he did, and it was beautiful. He would walk and strikeout three hitters over 116 pitches before being (wisely) lifted, and I imagine he’ll get at least one more turn as Carlos Martinez recovers from his oblique injury. The 26-year-old righty held a 2.15 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with a 9-3 record over 17 Triple-A starts prior to the promotion and should gain SP eligibility shortly.
Deep League Targets – <10% owned
Cameron Maybin (MIA – OF): 4% owned
Maybin has performed like a top-25 bat lately, going 12-for-32 with two homers and five steals over the last two weeks. Not only that, but he’s drawn 11 walks against seven strikeouts over that 11-game span. The Marlins have to love seeing that with the Trade Deadline coming close, just as fantasy owners have to love seeing the wheels start spinning for Maybin. The 31-year-old speedster had inexplicably swiped just three bags over his first 80 games, so this could see the form that stole 33 bases in ’17 come to stay for the rest of ’18. If he gets traded somewhere and becomes a fourth outfielder then you can move along.
Amed Rosario (NYM – SS): 7% owned
While the fantasy world eagerly awaits Rosario’s power to evolve beyond gap-to-gap pop, you smarties have seen his other tool start to shine. After struggling to get his timing down on the basepaths, Rosario has now successfully stolen four bases in his last eight contests. Please remember that this is his age-22 season, and he’s still popped three doubles and a trio of triples in July. He combined to steal 26 bases between Triple-A and the Majors last season, so don’t sleep on his speed.
Alex Verdugo (LAD – OF): 3% owned
Verdugo was called up in correspondence to Justin Turner’s DL move, though his playing time situation remains very murky. He makes for a decent deep-league add because of his potential should he prove too hot to bench (he is hitting .349 with eight homers and four steals in 67 Triple-A games, after all) but he’ll probably just follow in Andrew Toles’ footsteps back to the minors once health returns to the Dodgers. Still, the upside is worth a pretty penny in deep leagues.
Wade Miley (MIL – SP): 3% owned
Miley’s ownership rate actually dropped a percentage point since last week despite six strong innings against the Dodgers. The southpaw held them to one unearned run (on a passed ball) on four hits and two walks with two strikeouts. While the seven whiffs to seven walks in 11 innings is far from inspiring, this is the deep section here and Milwaukee has a strong supporting cast, both on offense and in the ‘pen. Plus, Brent Suter’s season-ending elbow injury only solidifies Miley’s place in the rotation. If you don’t trust him, then you can speculate on Brandon Woodruff (0% owned) getting another crack at it. The Brew Crew have already said that Corbin Burnes will remain in the ‘pen for the rest of 2018.
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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.
