Remember the good ol’ days when we were barely a month into the season and there were hot starts to question and cold starts to wait out. Well, the time is (and has been) nigh for you to weigh how long you can stash a cold bat on your bench or wait for an arm to loosen up. I feel a bit like Sisyphus writing this the night before the Trade Deadline — I’ve seen Ian Kinsler and Adam Duvall get dealt as I go here, and that’s after the big Roberto Osuna–Ken Giles swap. But let’s dive in and see who can help you now before all of the trade dust settles.
Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo leagues and, along with the stats, are accurate through July 30.
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Priority Pickups – <30% Owned
Anthony Swarzak (NYM – RP): 14% owned
Swarzak has notched the last two saves for the Metropolitans and seems to have leapfrogged Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo for the 1A-closer duties in New York. It doesn’t hurt that he’s struck out seven batters over 4 1/3 innings of work in the last two weeks. He’s had his fair share of bruises, which his 6.30 ERA will reflect for the rest of the season (poor relievers), but three straight scoreless appearances have come at the right time for him. Add anywhere you need saves.
Jake Bauers (TB – 1B/OF): 22% owned
Bauers has cranked two homers and swiped a bag over the last week to continue his hot rookie campaign. Despite a roller-coaster start to his career, the 22-year-old southpaw owns a .821 OPS with a sexy 44.7% hard-hit rate over his first 196 MLB PAs. He’s settled nicely in the three-hole for Tampa Bay and is now on a full-season pace for roughly 180 R+RBI (95 R, 85 RBI). He can slot into the infield or outfield and offers modest pop and an occasional bag, so cover your bases by adding Agent Bauers.
Kolby Allard (ATL – SP): 11% owned
Ah, yes. Allard is the shiniest new toy for fantasy owners to fawn over given his spot start on Tuesday against the Marlins. It almost seems too easy to turn out well, no? Superstitions aside, the 20-year-old lefty is having a fantastic season at Triple-A Gwinnett — 2.80 ERA, 1.21 WHIP with 87 strikeouts over 109 1/3 IP — and deserves this chance in the bigs. The 7.14 K/9 follows a 7.75 K/9 at Double-A in ’17, so I’d go in expecting his ratios and the weak division opponents to be the big selling points. This may turn into more than a one-time look if the Braves are either blown away or want to give Sean Newcomb’s arm a breather, especially after his 134-pitch no-hit bid.
Adalberto Mondesi (KC – 2B/SS): 7% owned
Mondesi just turned 23 years old this past week and is now hitting .281 with three homers and eight steals across 91 MLB PAs thus far. Mix in 133 Triple-A PAs and he now has eight longballs with 18 steals over 55 total pro games this season. This is a guy whose age-21 season at Triple-A resulted in a .305/.340/.579 slash with 13 homers and 21 steals in just 85 games. He has passable pop and the Royals should let him loose, so now that he’s back from the family medical emergency list he should play nearly every day and run, run, run.
Joe Musgrove (PIT – SP/RP): 26% owned
Musgrove took the tough-luck loss on Sunday against Zack Wheeler and the Mets after pitching seven innings of one-run ball and lowering his ERA to 3.63 on the season. Not only that, but he’s given up just 10 earned runs over his last five outings (2.67 ERA) and has gone at least seven innings in four of those starts. We had high hopes that Pittsburgh could unlock his full arsenal with more emphasis on grounders (52% over the last month) and inducing poor contact (24.2% soft-contact rate over the last month, ninth-best mark for a qualified SP in that stretch), so let’s see if he can keep the quality starts rolling against the Cardinals in his next start.
German Marquez (COL – SP): 17% owned
There are reasons beyond Coooors that Marquez is still widely available, though I’d wager he’d be around the 40% ownership mark on another team. He’s won four of his last five outings, with his most recent turn yielding 7 2/3 strong innings with just two solo homers blemishing his day against the A’s. And that was in Coors, by the way. He also fanned eight and has produced a 9.34 K/9 on the year. His recent surge is backed by a 2.37 xFIP for the month of July as the 23-year-old righty continues to take steps forward in his development. He’ll be tested in Milwaukee against the Brew Crew in his next scheduled start on Aug. 3.
Manuel Margot (SD – OF): 28% owned
Margot is hitting .370 with a homer and two steals over the last two weeks and rode a nine-game hit streak into Monday night’s game. The 23-year-old speedster has seen his hard-hit rate rise by 14 percentage points from 2017 alongside a bump in walks and fewer strikeouts, yet his OPS still lags by 21 points from ’17. His cold start really killed the preseason buzz, but he remains a power-speed threat and has begun to bat leadoff again. Speculators in 12-team leagues would be wise to scoop him now and see how hot he gets.
Derek Holland (SD – SP): 18% owned
To call Holland’s pitching over the last few years “lackluster” would be an undersell, but the southpaw has looked closer to his 2013 self since moving toward the first-base side of the rubber in June, delivering a 2.56 ERA (3.19 FIP, 3.10 xFIP) in 45 2/3 innings since then entering his Monday start against San Diego. In that start, he allowed a lone earned run over five innings with five strikeouts to give him 61 punchouts in 50 2/3 frames since June began. With Johnny Cueto potentially facing Tommy John surgery and Jeff Samardzija at less than 100%, Holland should hold down a rotation slot for as long as his performance allows — just don’t expect long starts where he sees a lineup three times.
Chris Davis (BAL – 1B): 22% owned
Those of you who didn’t immediately close this article upon reading that name are appreciated. Davis’ 2018 stat line has been a plague on the record books and houses many candidates for “worst ever” numbers, but he’s clobbered four dingers in his last eight games and is ranked 25th over the last two weeks per Yahoo’s 5×5 standard settings. If there’s one commodity that we could ever trust Davis to produce, it’s homers. It may come with a .150 average, but if he can knock 8-10 homers per month down the stretch then I’ll plug him into my CI slot.
Deep League Targets – <10% owned
Mychal Givens (BAL – RP): 8% owned
Givens and his 4.78 ERA/1.44 WHIP has not had the greatest 2018, but a 2.99 FIP may hold some promise moving forward with Brad Brach and Zach Britton both out of the picture in Baltimore. Darren O’Day would be the clean add if he wasn’t out for the season, but as it stands, Givens only has to fend off LOOGY Paul Fry and Mike Wright for the ninth. This is for those of you who already sold your soul to saves by adding Wily Peralta types, but beggars can’t be choosers. Put your faith in FIP and hope he turns it around!
David Fletcher (LAA – SS/3B): 3% owned
Fletcher’s kicked off his second half on a 15-for-38 spree with four doubles, four walks and four strikeouts over the 10-game span. Don’t expect him to hit nearly .400 or maintain a .429 BABIP, not that you would, but line-drive and hard-hit rates of 40% are great ways to produce some good luck. My advice is to make the add for some average help for as long as the wave lasts. With Zack Cozart injured and Ian Kinsler gone, Fletcher is basically locked into a starting spot in the Halos infield.
Max Fried (ATL – SP): 7% owned
Everyone’s eyes have darted to Allard, but Fried quietly returned to the rotation after missing three weeks with a blister and fanned seven Dodgers over five innings. He gave up just one run and takes some nice confidence into an Aug. 2 start against the Mets. With 32 strikeouts in 25 2/3 IP so far, Fried could dice up the Mets and hang another double-digit K performance for savvy fantasy teams.
Ryan McMahon (COL – 1B/3B): 4% owned
I remain unclear as to how much playing time Colorado truly means to give McMahon this time around, but he’s started in both games since being recalled and batted sixth and fifth, respectively. He’s said to have addressed a twist in his swing that also plagued teammate Carlos Gonzalez early in ’18. If his hitting .305 with nine doubles, two triples, seven homers and three steals in 32 Triple-A games since he was demoted in late June are any indication, his swing is just fine. The payoff of a power bat like his clicking in the middle of a Coors Field lineup is too good to pass up.
Neil Walker (NYY – 1B/2B/3B): 5% owned
Walker is currently set for more playing time with Aaron Judge injured and is riding a 12-for-23 heater with 10 R+RBI since the All-Star break. Even without Judge, the Yankees are an above-average offense in one of the most hitter-friendly parks our game has to offer. And it doesn’t hurt that Walker offers eligibility at every base across the diamond.
Daniel Palka (CWS – 1B/OF): 2% owned
Palka’s being platooned by the White Sox is maddening for fantasy owners — his most recent homer on July 29 came off the bench — but he’s now 6-for-10 with three homers over his last four contests (two starts). The good news, aside from his power, is that he bats fourth or fifth when he does play. Those in deep formats who need pop and can match him with a platoon mate would benefit from Polka Dot Palka.
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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.
