The All-Star break always creates an unorthodox week in head-to-head fantasy leagues, and we’ve reached that “week.” Because games resume today (one game, anyway), most fantasy providers lump the remainder of this week in with next week as one full fantasy week. One problem with the early start to the fantasy week in some weekly leagues is that rosters lock Thursday and Friday, and teams haven’t all shared their post-ASB rotation plans. Prognosticating how the unannounced rotations will look is a fool’s errand because it often isn’t as simple as a team choosing to start their best starter first followed by their second best starter and so forth. Teams will opt to mix up their rotation in a way to split up handedness of hurlers, manage innings, and they might even do so in order to line certain starters up with projected extra home or road starts based on their season/career home/road splits. My best advice for gamers in weekly leagues is to lean on your best players and use the known factors (such as park factors for fantasy Week 16 matchups) when making your starter decisions.
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Notable Matchups
Cubs vs Cardinals (5), vs. Diamondbacks (4), @ Cardinals (3)
The Cubs and Cardinals kick off meaningful baseball after the ASB with a game tonight, and they also play a doubleheader Saturday. As a result, the Cubs play five games this week before playing the full complement of seven next week. The Cubs play one more game during this fantasy scoring period than the Red Birds and two more games than next closest group of teams that play 10 games.
Cardinals @ Cubs (5), @ Reds (3), vs Cubs (3)
The Cardinals play the second most games in this scoring period as a result of tonight’s game and the doubleheader Saturday, but they come up one game short of the Cubbies due to an off day next Thursday. Gamers in shallower head-to-head leagues with weekly lineup changes should consider streaming from the Cubs and Cardinals to pick up extra games and counting stat opportunities. Also, if you’re in a league that counts holds, the extra games played by the National League Central foes increases holds opportunities for their relievers, making them prime streaming candidates.
Rockies @ Diamondbacks (3), vs. Astros (2), vs. Athletics (3)
Colorado is one of three teams that plays only eight games during the extended fantasy week. On the plus side, five of those games are at home. On the negative side, two of those home games are projected to be against Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton, a pair of tough draws even in their hitter-friendly home ballpark. Gamers obviously shouldn’t bench their studs from the Rockies in leagues with weekly lineup changes, but if you’ve been riding hot-hitting Carlos Gonzalez in standard leagues or smaller leagues, it wouldn’t be crazy to sit him if you have a solid alternative.
Astros @ Angels (3), @ Rockies (2), vs. Rangers (3)
The aforementioned Astros are the second of the eight-game fantasy week squads, and they’ll lose the services of a designated hitter for their two-game stop in Colorado. That’s more than offset by the dreamy hitting conditions their hitters will be treated to. Also of note, it appears they’ll face at least five left-handed probable starters.
Mariners vs. White Sox (3), vs. Giants (2), @ Angels (3)
The Mariners are the last of the short-week teams, and they’ll open with five at home before playing a three-game set on the road against the Angels. The White Sox will present the M’s hitters some soft pitching matchups. The Pale Hose’s starters have posted the fourth highest ERA (5.14) this year, per FanGraphs, and their FIP (5.27) and xFIP (5.50) are actually less flattering. The lower number of scheduled games than all but two other teams isn’t ideal, but don’t immediately dismiss using fringe fantasy starters from the M’s without first considering the favorable pitching matchups.
Dodgers @ Brewers (3), @ Phillies (3), @ Braves (4)
The hitters from the Dodgers will get a homer-hitting bump for their first two series after the ASB. Miller Park and Citizens Bank Park both rank in the top five in park factor for homers with the former checking in fifth (1.178) and latter second (1.234). Three straight road series shouldn’t detract gamers from using Dodgers hitters. They rank tied for sixth in wRC+ (104) on the road this year.
Mets @ Yankees (3), vs. Padres (3), @ Pirates (4)
It’s a double dose of good news for Mets hitters. First, the lineup will get a boost from the services of a designated hitter for three games at Yankee Stadium. Second, speaking of Yankee Stadium, the home of the Bronx Bombers has the highest park factor for homers (1.301).
Athletics vs. Giants (3), @ Rangers (4), @ Rockies (3)
Like their division rival Astros, the A’s will play a series in Colorado, thus, forfeiting the DH for the series but more than making up for it with the dreamy hitting conditions in Colorado. Additionally, they have a four-game series in the second best run-scoring environment in MLB, Globe Life Park in Arlington. Oakland’s bats get a massive park-factor bump for this fantasy scoring period.
Phillies vs. Padres (3), vs. Dodgers (3), @ Reds (4)
The Phillies have a fairly sizable home/road split this season. On the road, they’ve tallied just a .138 ISO and .303 wOBA, but at home, those numbers jump to a .172 ISO and .316 wOBA. They’re home for six games in the next week and change, and their four road contests are in another homer-friendly park at Great American Ball Park. GABP has the sixth highest park factor for homers at 1.133.
Pirates @ Reds (3), @ Indians (3), vs. Mets (4)
Highlighting GABP’s park factor for homers provides a nifty segue to Pittsburgh’s week-ahead look since they play three there starting Friday. After getting a dinger lift in Cinci, Pittsburgh picks up the designated hitter for three games in Cleveland while also enjoying hitter-friendly and homer-friendly park factors at Progressive Field. Not everything comes up roses for the Buccos over their next three series, though. The pitching matchups are rather challenging and include the resurgent Matt Harvey, Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Jacob deGrom.
Giants @ Athletics (3), @ Mariners (2), vs. Brewers (4)
The Giants play their next five games in American League ballparks, awarding them the opportunity to use a designated hitter. Madison Bumgarner is projected to pitch during that stretch, so it’s possible they’ll forfeit the DH during his start. Since 2016, Bumgarner has pitched in two American League ballparks, and he hit for himself in 2016 at Oakland, but the team used a DH in 2017 at Chicago. My money’s on the Giants exercising caution with their ace and using a DH.
Rangers vs. Indians (3), vs. Athletics (4), @ Astros (3)
If you thought the previously highlighted home/road splits for the Phillies were stark, then the Rangers would like you to hold their beer. On the road this year, the Rangers have a .141 ISO and .292 wOBA. At home, they have a .178 ISO and .333 wOBA. The good news for their hitters is they play their next seven games at home. The bad news is they cap off next week with three games at the toughest park in the Majors to score runs in against Houston’s loaded rotation. The good outweighs the bad for the Rangers bats.
Hitter Notes
Manny Machado (LAD)
It’s official, Machado has been dealt to the Dodgers. The teams rumored to be the closest to trade for him all along have been NL squads, so hopefully, gamers who had him in AL-only leagues prepared for his ultimate dealing to the National League. He’ll get a huge lineup boost joining the Dodgers, and his run-production ceiling gets a lift as a result of that boost.
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM)
Cespedes last appeared in a game for the Mets on May 13, and he could return as soon as Friday. He’s played in back-to-back days on a minor-league rehab assignment, and in Wednesday’s game, he played first base. If he’s able to handle first base and plays their regularly, that would be an ideal situation from a fantasy perspective since it wouldn’t result in a crowded outfield and would result in Cespedes picking up first base eligibility.
Pitcher Notes
Carl Edwards Jr. (CHC)
Gamers in leagues that count holds or those who are rostering Edwards Jr. in deeper leagues for his ratios and strikeout help can slot him back in their lineups. He’s been activated from the paternity list and will be active for tonight’s game.
Stephen Strasburg (WAS)
Strasburg will return from the disabled list to start Washington’s first game after the ASB on Friday night. He’s made two rehab appearances this month throwing 57 pitches in his first start and 82 in his second. He might not be awarded a full 100-pitch workload in his first start back on the parent club, but he shouldn’t be too far off and can immediately be started on fantasy teams.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
