Fantasy Football Expert PPR Mock Draft (July 2018)

by Mike Tagliere | @MikeTagliereNFL | Featured Writer
Jul 13, 2018

It seems Redskins rookie Derrius Guice will likely find his way higher up draft boards as the season nears

Each and every offseason, we who write about football for a living go through an odd schedule. It includes staying up later than we’d like (especially when I had an infant last year) to watch film on rookies, look for countless trends, quantify new ways to project offenses, update depth charts, and do thousands of drafts.

Some will tell you that it’s dumb to do mock drafts in February through June, but for us, it’s a way to gauge where the public is, and which players are shifting as the months go on. This typically carries into the heavy-draft season that takes place in August. That way, we’re able to let you know which players you should expect to slide up draft boards, as well as which players you should expect to come cheaper on draft day.

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Because I’m not alone in this process, I invited some of the top names in the industry to help me do a mock draft for you. I’ll be going through and finding which players are far off the beaten ADP path, as these are the players who you should see the biggest shift in over the next few months, because the guys who took part in this draft will be advising their following to go that way in upcoming drafts. Keep in mind that this was a PPR format that starts 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2W/R/T. That’s right, no defenses or kickers (though Andy drafted one for good luck).

Here’s a list of the analysts who took part in the mock draft, as well as a link to where you can find them:

Scott Barrett – Pro Football Focus
Jason Moore – Fantasy Footballers
Andy Behrens – Yahoo
Bobby Sylvester – FantasyPros
Mike Tagliere – FantasyPros
Bob Harris – Football Diehards
Eliot Crist – 4for4
Jake Ciely – RotoExperts
Pat Thorman – Pro Football Focus
Rich Hribar – Rotoworld
Justin Boone – The Score
Jamey Eisenberg – CBS Sports

ROUNDS 1-3

Analyst Pick Player ADP Difference
Barrett 1 Le’Veon Bell 2 1
Moore 2 Todd Gurley 1 -1
Behrens 3 David Johnson 3 0
Sylvester 4 Ezekiel Elliott 4 0
Tagliere 5 Antonio Brown 5 0
Harris 6 Saquon Barkley 7 1
Crist 7 Alvin Kamara 6 -1
Ciely 8 Kareem Hunt 9 1
Thorman 9 Melvin Gordon 11 2
Hribar 10 DeAndre Hopkins 8 -2
Boone 11 Odell Beckham Jr. 10 -1
Eisenberg 12 Keenan Allen 16 4
Eisenberg 13 Julio Jones 13 0
Boone 14 Michael Thomas 15 1
Hribar 15 Leonard Fournette 12 -3
Thorman 16 Dalvin Cook 14 -2
Ciely 17 Davante Adams 18 1
Crist 18 Christian McCaffrey 17 -1
Harris 19 Mike Evans 21 2
Tagliere 20 A.J. Green 19 -1
Sylvester 21 Devonta Freeman 20 -1
Behrens 22 Derrius Guice 38 16
Moore 23 Adam Thielen 29 6
Barrett 24 LeSean McCoy 23 -1
Barrett 25 Jerick McKinnon 24 -1
Moore 26 Joe Mixon 25 -1
Behrens 27 Rob Gronkowski 22 -5
Sylvester 28 Doug Baldwin 31 3
Tagliere 29 Jordan Howard 28 -1
Harris 30 Travis Kelce 26 -4
Crist 31 Stefon Diggs 33 2
Ciely 32 Rashaad Penny 42 10
Thorman 33 T.Y. Hilton 32 -1
Hribar 34 Larry Fitzgerald 36 2
Boone 35 Alex Collins 47 12
Eisenberg 36 Tyreek Hill 27 -9

 
You wouldn’t expect a massive difference in draft position over the first few rounds, but there were definitely a few standouts that you should know. It’s clear that Behrens is in love with Derrius Guice, selecting him in the second-round, 16 picks before he was expected to come off the board. Knowing he had a pick after just five more players came off the board, he likely would’ve been safe waiting on him. Still, he was tied for the biggest difference of draft slot/ADP in the top 50 players selected. The other two players selected drastically before they were expected to go were Rashaad Penny and Alex Collins. It’s clear that running backs were coming off the board fast and furious, forcing Ciely and Boone to reach just a bit, especially when they knew Eisenberg (who had the two picks at the next turn) had yet to draft a single running back.

There were just two players selected five or more spots after their current ADP, and those players were Rob Gronkowski and Tyreek Hill. While taking a tight end in the top two rounds has lost some of its luster, I’d jump all over Gronkowski in the third-round like Behrens did. As for Hill, this is a theme in industry mocks, where he’s falling much further than some think he should. For the crowd who says that Pat Mahomes is an upgrade over Alex Smith, know that Smith was the best deep-ball passer in the league last year, by both yardage and passer rating. Each and every one of Hill’s last 13 touchdowns have come from at least 30 yards out. Regression is coming.

My picks:
1.05 Antonio Brown – Not much to say here. In a full PPR format, he shouldn’t fall outside the top-five.
2.08 A.J. Green – I’m almost always walking away with a running back after two rounds, but deciding between Green, who is always a WR1 when healthy and someone like Jerick McKinnon and Joe Mixon, I played it safe.
3.05 Jordan Howard – I considered myself lucky to land Howard here, though it does hurt in a PPR format. Still, I needed stability at the position after going WR-heavy, and Howard will provide a very solid floor in any format.

ROUNDS 4-6

Analyst Pick Player ADP Difference
Eisenberg 37 Zach Ertz 34 -3
Boone 38 Sony Michel 54 16
Hribar 39 Amari Cooper 37 -2
Thorman 40 JuJu Smith-Schuster 45 5
Ciely 41 Josh Gordon 35 -6
Crist 42 Allen Robinson 41 -1
Harris 43 Jay Ajayi 46 3
Tagliere 44 Demaryius Thomas 44 0
Sylvester 45 Brandin Cooks 48 3
Behrens 46 Alshon Jeffery 52 6
Moore 47 Golden Tate 50 3
Barrett 48 Jarvis Landry 49 1
Barrett 49 Marvin Jones 59 10
Moore 50 Sammy Watkins 66 16
Behrens 51 Aaron Rodgers 30 -21
Sylvester 52 Mark Ingram 53 1
Tagliere 53 Kenyan Drake 40 -13
Harris 54 Royce Freeman 83 29
Crist 55 Ronald Jones 56 1
Ciely 56 Lamar Miller 62 6
Thorman 57 Derrick Henry 39 -18
Hribar 58 Dion Lewis 60 2
Boone 59 Chris Hogan 74 15
Eisenberg 60 Kerryon Johnson 81 21
Eisenberg 61 Marlon Mack 82 21
Boone 62 Marshawn Lynch 78 16
Hribar 63 Julian Edelman 69 6
Thorman 64 Greg Olsen 63 -1
Ciely 65 Corey Davis 65 0
Crist 66 Will Fuller 72 6
Harris 67 Michael Crabtree 68 1
Tagliere 68 DeVante Parker 89 21
Sylvester 69 Jamison Crowder 88 19
Behrens 70 Robert Woods 77 7
Moore 71 Rex Burkhead 96 25
Barrett 72 Emmanuel Sanders 86 14

 
This is where it’s make-or-break time and often where fantasy teams start to show their weaknesses if they ignore positions for too long of a period. I’ve talked about it for a long time, and it’s that you need to adapt to the draft that is taking place in front of you. While you may have a plan coming in that you want to snag one running back early and then load-up on wide receivers, you need to veer off that plan if the running backs start flying off the board. Eisenberg went another turn without selecting a running back and was forced to reach 21 spots from ADP on both Kerryon Johnson and Marlon Mack, who are his two starting running backs. He wasn’t the only one that reached on running backs, though, as Harris reached for Royce Freeman 29 spots before his current draft position, and Moore reached 25 spots for Rex Burkhead. It just goes to show that running backs were coming at a premium, something the analysts recognized. So, while I do expect each of Johnson, Mack, Freeman, and Burkhead to rise in price, I don’t expect them to go as high as they did in this draft.

Even though running backs were going fast and furious, Harris somewhat regrets his pick of Jay Ajayi in the fourth-round. He said, “It’s not that I dislike Ajayi, I’m just concerned drafting a running back likely to be mired in a full-blown committee as my RB2. Even with LeGarrette Blount out of the picture, it seems likely the former Dolphin will still be involved in a timeshare with the talented Corey Clements breathing down his neck. In addition, the Eagles re-signed veteran scatback Darren Sproles and added former Redskin and Colt Matt Jones. Heading into training camp, HC Doug Pederson went as far as saying he envisions Ajayi and Jones forming a 1-2 running back attack similar to what Blount and Ajayi did during the second half of the Super Bowl season. Even if it doesn’t play out that way, the entire committee thing is a concern to me.”

Meanwhile, there were a few running backs who fell further than expected, which is where Thorman decided to take the plunge on Derrick Henry in the fifth-round, which is likely worth the risk. His current price as the 39th pick in PPR drafts is far too rich, as evidenced by the many analysts who passed on him in this draft. Due to the recent Frank Gore hype, I was able to snag Kenyan Drake 13 spots later than his current draft position, which worked well for me considering I went WR-heavy to start the draft. I recently wrote-up a Drake profile that made me feel a bit better about his projection and what to expect (read it here). I’ve you’ve ever looked at an industry mock draft, you likely know that quarterbacks always fall, so to see Rodgers go 21 spots after his ADP is no surprise. I do believe that Rodgers was a phenomenal value there, but Ciely said this about Behrens’ selection: “My least favorite pick of the draft was Aaron Rodgers – and it’s not even that Rodgers was a poor value… in fact, fifth round is a great value for him. My issue is that Andy already took Rob Gronkowski, which made his WR3 rookie D.J. Moore, and his flex spots two of C.J. Anderson, Nick Chubb, or Nelson Agholor. You can go QB or TE early if the value is right, but you can’t do both.”

My picks:
4.08 Demaryius Thomas – Full disclosure, I’d owned almost zero Thomas before this draft, but once again, I was deciding between the safety of someone who will finish as a WR2 and someone like Kenyan Drake who has some question marks.
5.05 Kenyan Drake – Talked about this pick above, just see his profile.
6.08 DeVante Parker – Being surrounded by a bunch of sharks, I couldn’t wait to pull the trigger on Parker. I lost some of the value I’d get had I drafted him in the seventh, but these guys know his floor is a WR3.

ROUNDS 7-10

Analyst Pick Player ADP Difference
Barrett 73 Pierre Garcon 80 7
Moore 74 Randall Cobb 95 21
Behrens 75 D.J. Moore 127 52
Sylvester 76 Duke Johnson 87 11
Tagliere 77 Tevin Coleman 67 -10
Harris 78 Devin Funchess 70 -8
Crist 79 Evan Engram 58 -21
Ciely 80 Cooper Kupp 84 4
Thorman 81 Marquise Goodwin 100 19
Hribar 82 Jamaal Williams 99 17
Boone 83 Robby Anderson 103 20
Eisenberg 84 Devontae Booker 130 46
Eisenberg 85 Tarik Cohen 73 -12
Boone 86 Jimmy Graham 57 -29
Hribar 87 Delanie Walker 71 -16
Thorman 88 Kenny Stills 131 43
Ciely 89 Kyle Rudolph 76 -13
Crist 90 Deshaun Watson 43 -47
Harris 91 Isaiah Crowell 93 2
Tagliere 92 Trey Burton 91 -1
Sylvester 93 Russell Wilson 51 -42
Behrens 94 C.J. Anderson 109 15
Moore 95 Allen Hurns 118 23
Barrett 96 Tom Brady 55 -41
Barrett 97 Chris Thompson 104 7
Moore 98 Carlos Hyde 85 -13
Behrens 99 Nick Chubb 114 15
Sylvester 100 Jordan Reed 90 -10
Tagliere 101 Sterling Shepard 111 10
Harris 102 Cam Newton 64 -38
Crist 103 Carson Wentz 61 -42
Ciely 104 Kelvin Benjamin 116 12
Thorman 105 Rishard Matthews 145 40
Hribar 106 Drew Brees 75 -31
Boone 107 Aaron Jones 101 -6
Eisenberg 108 Matt Breida 172 64
Eisenberg 109 Nyheim Hines 153 44
Boone 110 D’Onta Foreman 113 3
Hribar 111 Jordy Nelson 97 -14
Thorman 112 Ty Montgomery 117 5
Ciely 113 Mike Williams 142 29
Crist 114 Giovani Bernard 139 25
Harris 115 Corey Clement 143 28
Tagliere 116 Kirk Cousins 79 -37
Sylvester 117 Josh Doctson 152 35
Behrens 118 Nelson Agholor 105 -13
Moore 119 Tyler Lockett 167 48
Barrett 120 DeSean Jackson 160 40
Thorman 136 Marcus Mariota 119 -17
Ciely 152 David Njoku 123 -29
Behrens 166 Greg Zurlein 137 -29
Ciely 128 Andrew Luck 98 -30
Eisenberg 133 Ben Roethlisberger 102 -31
Moore 143 Philip Rivers 112 -31
Boone 131 Matthew Stafford 94 -37
Hribar 154 Jack Doyle 115 -39
Thorman 160 Pat Mahomes 108 -52
Harris 163 Jared Goff 107 -56
Boone 158 Jimmy Garoppolo 92 -66
Ciely 176 Matt Ryan 106 -70

 
As expected, the further we get into the draft, the larger the varying in opinions. It was a continuing battle for Eisenberg to snag running backs, as he was forced to reach 64 spots for Matt Breida and 46 spots for Devontae Booker, two of the largest discrepancies in the draft. Meanwhile, you saw Behrens trying to make up for his lack of wide receivers by drafting rookie D.J. Moore at 75 overall, which is much earlier than his 127 overall ADP. If there’s something to be learned from this, it’s that if you avoid a position in the draft for as long as Eisenberg or Behrens did, you’re going to need to reach in the mid-rounds to get guys to fill those holes. This works if you have guys you know are being undervalued, but in this group, value was always going to be tough to find. Knowing who you are drafting with is a large part of your success.

The other players who went much higher than they do in public drafts were Tyler Lockett, who Moore selected 48 spots higher than his current price, while Thorman snagged two late-round industry gems in Kenny Stills and Rishard Matthews. He removed some of their value by taking them so early, but being near the turn (like he was), you sometimes have to reach to ensure you get your guys.

Some of the players who dropped much further than the public would expect included Deshaun Watson, who was taken 47 spots later than his current price, though we already knew quarterbacks are devalued here. Sylvester said that his pick of Wilson in the eight was his favorite value in the draft, “At some point, you have to say that late-round quarterback has gone too far.” The non-quarterback players who dropped further than anticipated in this area of the draft included Jimmy Graham, who Boone snagged 29 spots after his current ADP. Evan Engram was another tight end who fell to Crist 21 spots after his current price, so maybe something to take from this is that analysts are either paying up for Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz, or simply waiting until they can get one at a value. One of my favorite value picks from this range was Eisenberg, who snagged Tarik Cohen at 85 overall, which was a value, especially in a PPR format. Considering he started with three wide receivers and a tight end, he actually selected seven running backs in a row from rounds 5-11.

My picks:
7.05 Tevin Coleman – Another player who I own very little of to this point, but knowing that my wide receivers are stacked, I needed to start taking some shots on high-upside running backs and he was a major value as the 34th running back off the board.
8.08 Trey Burton – The tight end position started to dry up and I’ve been on record saying that you don’t want to wind up drafting a non-top-10 tight end. Burton and Jordan Reed were my last two options.
9.05 Sterling Shepard – One of my favorite mid-to-late-round guys this year, as Pat Shurmur’s offense does wonders for the slot-role, which is where Shepard plays, almost exclusively.
10.08 Kirk Cousins – I sound like a broken record, but here’s another player I don’t find myself drafting all that often. With the way my team has been built, I was simply looking for safety at the quarterback position, which is why I went Cousins over Ben Roethlisberger.

ROUNDS 11-15

Analyst Pick Player ADP Difference
Barrett 121 Tyler Eifert 138 17
Moore 122 Latavius Murray 158 36
Behrens 123 Michael Gallup 159 36
Sylvester 124 Theo Riddick 144 20
Tagliere 125 Marqise Lee 125 0
Harris 126 Kenny Golladay 148 22
Crist 127 Calvin Ridley 129 2
Ciely 128 Andrew Luck 98 -30
Thorman 129 George Kittle 121 -8
Hribar 130 Jordan Wilkins 193 63
Boone 131 Matthew Stafford 94 -37
Eisenberg 132 Chris Carson 147 15
Eisenberg 133 Ben Roethlisberger 102 -31
Boone 134 Cameron Meredith 134 0
Hribar 135 Kenneth Dixon 178 43
Thorman 136 Marcus Mariota 119 -17
Ciely 137 Bilal Powell 166 29
Crist 138 Chris Godwin 213 75
Harris 139 Donte Moncrief 232 93
Tagliere 140 Doug Martin 151 11
Sylvester 141 Geronimo Allison 200 59
Behrens 142 Anthony Miller 176 34
Moore 143 Philip Rivers 112 -31
Barrett 144 Ricky Seals-Jones 202 58
Barrett 145 Charles Clay 186 41
Moore 146 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 156 10
Behrens 147 Jordan Matthews 197 50
Sylvester 148 James White 149 1
Tagliere 149 T.J. Yeldon 236 87
Harris 150 Benjamin Watson 199 49
Crist 151 O.J. Howard 136 -15
Ciely 152 David Njoku 123 -29
Thorman 153 Ted Ginn 181 28
Hribar 154 Jack Doyle 115 -39
Boone 155 Spencer Ware 218 63
Eisenberg 156 Quincy Enunwa 259 103
Eisenberg 157 Tyrell Williams 230 73
Boone 158 Jimmy Garoppolo 92 -66
Hribar 159 Cole Beasley 288 129
Thorman 160 Pat Mahomes 108 -52
Ciely 161 Austin Ekeler 209 48
Crist 162 Paul Richardson 165 3
Harris 163 Jared Goff 107 -56
Tagliere 164 Elijah McGuire 255 91
Sylvester 165 Eric Ebron 183 18
Behrens 166 Greg Zurlein 137 -29
Moore 167 John Ross 229 62
Barrett 168 Albert Wilson 226 58
Barrett 169 Terrelle Pryor 231 62
Moore 170 Vance McDonald 174 4
Behrens 171 Keke Coutee 322 151
Sylvester 172 Keelan Cole 191 19
Tagliere 173 James Washington 211 38
Harris 174 Frank Gore 198 24
Crist 175 Peyton Barber 212 37
Ciely 176 Matt Ryan 106 -70
Thorman 177 Darren Sproles 262 85
Hribar 178 Christian Kirk 168 -10
Boone 179 John Kelly 254 75
Eisenberg 180 Danny Amendola 216 36

 
This is the area of the draft where you’ll typically see analysts planting their flags on certain players, which is the reason you’ll see large discrepancies in ADP versus draft position. It’s apparent that Behrens thinks Keke Coutee wins the starting slot job for the Texans, as he almost always goes undrafted. While I do believe Coutee wins the job, it’s unlikely the Texans can produce three fantasy relevant wide receivers. Hribar went a route that not many people do in selecting Cole Beasley, but he’s someone who may wind up with more targets/production than most anticipate. He doesn’t come with upside to finish as a top-30 wide receiver, but this league does have two flex positions.

Some other notable players that the analysts reached for included Donte Moncrief, who Harris said this about, “When healthy, Moncrief has a skill set similar to Allen Robinson‘s, is expected to line up as the starter opposite Marqise Lee with Keelan Cole as the third receiver. While the “when healthy” thing is a concern, drafting any team’s potential WR1 this late is a win in my book.”

There weren’t as many values late in the draft outside of quarterbacks and tight ends, who continued to fall further than expected. In fact, Cameron Brate was not drafted. That’s the player I’m most shocked wasn’t drafted, especially when you consider that Barrett selected three tight ends, and 21 were selected in the entirety of the draft. Below is a screenshot of all the teams in a grid format. Make sure to reach out to your favorite analyst and let them know which team you like best!

My picks:
11.05 Marqise Lee – Most don’t realize that even though he missed two games, Lee ranks 27th in targets among wide receivers. Keep in mind that Allen Robinson was there for one of those years, too.
12.08 Doug Martin – Taking a running back who can win the starting job and play behind a top-three offensive line? Yes, please.
13.05 T.J. Yeldon – I continued taking my favorite backup running backs who would be shot up into RB1 status should the starter go down.
14.08 Elijah McGuire – Knowing that I’m pretty thin at running back, I think there’s a non-zero percent chance that McGuire leads this team in touches.
15.05 James Washington – One of my favorite guys to take at the end of drafts. Such an underrated player.

There weren’t as many values late in the draft outside of quarterbacks and tight ends, who continued to fall further than expected. In fact, Cameron Brate was not drafted. That’s the player I’m most shocked wasn’t drafted, especially when you consider that Barrett selected three tight ends, and 21 were selected in the entirety of the draft. Below is a screenshot of all the teams in a grid format. Make sure to reach out to your favorite analyst and let them know which team you like best.


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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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