Fantasy football’s standard playoff structure enables recency bias by making the end matter much more than the beginning. Going into 2018 drafts, fans will remember Blake Bortles‘ perfectly timed surge more than Alex Smith’s impeccable start. LikeLike How I Met Your Mother, we resent Rob Gronkowski for ending an otherwise commendable run with a dud. Yet like Parks and Recreation, we hardly mind Alvin Kamara needing some time to settle into a fantastic groove.

Not every discrepancy is meaningful. Some players simply spiked a certain half with one or two huge games. Others merely regressed to the mean (positive and negatively) in real time. While these lists focus largely on healthy contributors, surrounding injuries often spurred a rise or fall.

A few cases, however, foreshadow important signals for 2018. Breakouts and dips caused by altered usage could carry over to the upcoming season. For better or worse, the vast peaks and valleys can point to a player’s higher ceiling or lower floor, often accompanied by a wide range of outcomes.

Let’s look at how drafters should respond to each position’s notable risers and fallers from last year. Accounting for bye weeks and injuries, each player’s first- and second-half splits (using standard scoring) are divided between his team’s first and final eight games.

Combine rankings from 100+ experts into one consensus cheat sheet

QB Risers

Roethlisberger’s second half included consecutive four-touchdown outings and 506 passing yards in an atypical shootout against Baltimore in which he attempted 66 passes. In the first half, meanwhile, he tossed 11 touchdowns in eight games and surrendered five interceptions during a single contest. Anyone who drafts the Pittsburgh veteran must be willing to embrace this wide range of outcomes, which should add up to a top-12 choice when healthy. The same applies to Newton, who has four top-four QB finishes and two QB17 seasons through his six-year career.

Rivers is more consistent on an annual basis, but his second-half surge coincided with Keenan Allen amassing 855 receiving yards and five touchdowns in eight contests. Yet the veteran also ended six of those bouts without throwing a pick, which is unsustainable for someone who averages 13.8 picks per season. He’s still a late value for anyone waiting out the position, and the streak solidified his top wideout as a legitimate second-round stud.

Everybody heave your Molotov cocktails in the air and shout together with glee — “BORTLES!” Although middling in the actual postseason, he saved his best for when it truly mattered by accruing an NFL-high 113.7 fantasy points from Weeks 11-16. A soft schedule and two rushing touchdowns against the Cardinals sparked the perfect storm while reminding everyone of his deceptively high fantasy upside. He’s unreliable as anything more than a streamer when riding such a hot streak, but his end-of-year rank will surpass his QB25 consensus ADP.

Flacco averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Brian Hoyer, Kevin Hogan, Mike Glennon, and Matt Moore through Week 8, so it’s hard to care about his late return to relevancy in two-quarterback leagues. Those expecting Baltimore to sit the Super Bowl champion for Lamar Jackson, however, will likely leave 2018 disappointed.

QB Fallers

Prescott tied Carson Wentz for third in QB PPG before plummeting below Drew Stanton and Jacoby Brissett in the latter sample. He holds a QB18 consensus ADP despite getting Ezekiel Elliott back for 16 games after a QB10 campaign. He also has no receivers after decaying into waiver-wire fodder, so risk remains in spite of the tempting low cost.

For the third time in four years, Brady placed outside the top 10 (QB19) during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16). In his defense, New England usually has the AFC East in the bag by December. If it’s not reason enough to beware the legend, investors should consider flipping the soon-to-be 41-year-old around the midseason mark.

The other names are of far less consequence. Taylor goes to a team with a better supporting cast and a higher willingness to pass. Cleveland also doesn’t seem to actively detest him like Buffalo, so it’s all a matter of fending off No. 1 pick Baker Mayfield for the starting job. Carr and Manning weren’t too great in the first half anyway. Each will now play in a new coaching scheme, but neither is consistent enough to trust beyond a two-QB or best ball league.

RB Risers

Neither Kamara nor Ingram truly picked up steam until the Saints traded Adrian Peterson after Week 4. The Saints do not plan on increasing Kamara’s workload during Ingram’s four-game suspension, so he’ll need to maintain last year’s stellar efficiency under a limited snap count. 12 games of Ingram in the early fifth round isn’t a bad deal.

Another pair of 2017 teammates, Lewis and Burkhead, also made the list together. They must both coalesce with a new backfield partner, as Lewis joins Derrick Henry in Tennessee while the Patriots replaced him by drafting Sony Michel in the first round. Burkhead’s placement is primarily fueled by six touchdowns in the final four games, but he only needs around a dozen touches per game to factor into flex consideration. The highly efficient Lewis also makes a safer and cheaper selection than Henry in the sixth round.

Most of these inclusions amount to a clear role change. Once he took over for an injured Aaron Jones, Williams handled 23.3 touches per game with five touchdowns in seven contests. The strong blocker will get a two-game head start on the suspended Jones, who offers a higher ceiling if the early ban does not cost him opportunities. Drake must now contest veteran Frank Gore and rookie Kalen Ballage, so investors cannot expect a full return to the bell-cow role that made him the RB10 from Weeks 10 to 17. Murray showed what he could do when Dalvin Cook tore his ACL, so he’s a clear handcuff for those who grab his younger Minnesota teammate.

RB Fallers

Despite regressing from stellar starts, rookies Hunt and Fournette still ranked as RB11 and RB16 in PPG from Week 9 onward, respectively. They also both redeemed a strong November with one rushing touchdown apiece in Weeks 14, 15, and 16, so drafters should harbor no hard feelings toward either when seeking a running back near the late-first or early-second round.

Miller’s funk is more cause for concern, and he was out-snapped 96-64 by Alfred Blue over Houston’s final three games. Yet he may not have to worry about added competition from D’Onta Foreman, whose Week 1 availability is unclear after suffering a torn ACL last year. Miller played all but one of those first-half contests with Deshaun Watson, so he just needs to preserve playing time to remain an unheralded and affordable (No. 57 consensus ADP) RB2.

Martin and Blount will hope to regain past success in new places. The former will have to fend off a resurgent Marshawn Lynch, and the latter is a TD-reliant veteran who scored twice on 32 red-zone handoffs last season.

WR Risers

Just imagine Smith-Schuster’s splits if he didn’t score a 97-yard touchdown (193 yards total) in Week 8. Wait, we don’t need to. He averaged 5.9 PPG before that explosion and 13.2-a mark bested by only five wideouts-in seven games from Week 8 onward. His average targets during that modified midway mark: 3.9 to 7.6. Snaps per game? 38.3 to 56.6. He’s 21 years old.

Landry, who had never crossed the pylons more than five times in a season before 2017, deposited five of his nine touchdowns in the second half of Miami’s season. All occurred inside the red zone, where he received 14 targets. The odds are against him replicating those rates with the Browns, who also have Josh Gordon, David Njoku, Corey Coleman, Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb, and Duke Johnson to consider near the near goal line. Or Taylor can just run the ball himself. Standard-league drafters should expect results closer to his first half.

Crowder only reached preseason expectations after Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed got injured. He’s once again a popular pick, but now at a more reasonable (WR38 ADP) rate. It’s easy to get excited about Goodwin’s 76.8 YPG with Jimmy Garoppolo starting before realizing that he averaged 43.6 YPG when sharing the field with Pierre Garcon. The two contrasting halves still met for a WR29 finish, so he could contribute as a fantasy squad’s third wideout or flex option who will need more big plays than crooked target counts.

Anderson’s stock depends on a possible suspension for two offseason arrests. The NFL is still reviewing his case to determine if he violated its personal-conduct policy. Despite his inclusion, he stumbled to the finish line. The league’s second-best WR behind Antonio Brown from Weeks 7-13 tallied 120 combined yards over Gang Green’s final four games. He’s a high-risk, high-reward gamble best suited for a bench spot.

As the primary benefactor from Bortles’ late surge, Cole compiled 442 yards and three touchdowns from Weeks 13 to 16. Yet he’s hardly getting any buzz (WR70 ADP) heading into his sophomore season. It’s fair to doubt his ability to again rattle off 73- and 75-yard catches in consecutive weeks, but it’s also reasonable to take a big-play flier with your final skill-position pick.

WR Fallers

Fuller’s season is split into five games apiece, but he collected fewer cumulative points in the final five (11) than he averaged in the first set. While a kindergartner could have predicted regression from his seven touchdowns in 22 targets, an optimist will note these sample sizes can also be labeled as with and without Watson. Beware the preseason helium, but the 24-year-old has shown immense upside when he and Watson are both healthy.

Crabtree finished Week 12 – when he was ejected for fighting Aqib Talib – and Week 16’s games without a single catch, but he totaled 39 targets in the other four second-half games. He goes to a Ravens offense missing 2017’s three target leaders (Mike Wallace, Benjamin Watson, and Jeremy Maclin), so this is a time to ignore the late decline and buy at a discount.

The WR1 by over 12 points through Week 4, Diggs was on the path to stardom before injuring his groin in Week 5. Yet he’d still be considered a strong closer using a different endpoint; the 24-year-old found the end zone in Minnesota’s final three games before garnering 22 targets in a pair of postseason tilts. Health is the main obstacle blocking him from a top-10 finish at his position.

Nelson’s downfall without Aaron Rodgers is troubling since Carr is not Rodgers. Ginn still has the benefit of a superstar quarterback, but Cameron Meredith is poised to attract some of Brees’ attention. While Sanders mustered 122 combined yards over his final five games, a quarterback upgrade manifests bounce-back hope for someone who had cleared 135 targets and 1,000 yards in each of the previous three seasons.

TE Risers

It’s all about touchdowns for tight ends. Walker received just three more targets in Tennessee’s final eight games, but he jammed all three scores into that region. While Rudolph made five of his eight end-zone appearances from Weeks 12-15, he then snagged two catches for nine yards in the closing two weeks. Both are top-10 alternatives to the position’s pricey elite tier.

Burton’s rise amounts to four touchdowns, three of which he tallied in two games without Zach Ertz. He now gets an entire season as Chicago’s top tight end in a system run by former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. The hype is justifiably heavy (TE10).

Howard’s ascension came with a rising snap count before missing the last two weeks with an ankle injury. Brate, meanwhile, appears on the list below after stacking four of his five scores through Week 5. This is a case to follow the late trends and prioritize Howard as a potential breakout selection.

TE Fallers

Don’t make much of Doyle residing on this list while new teammate Eric Ebron appears above. They were not playing together or with Andrew Luck, and Doyle’s best game (12 catches, 121 yards, 1 TD) happened to occur in Week 8. Ebron’s late target uptick (32 in the final four games) might be more encouraging if he stayed in Detroit.

Ertz averaged 8.3 targets and 70.6 yards per game with five touchdowns through Week 7. That’s tough to sustain for any pass catcher, especially a tight end. Yet don’t blame Nick Foles, who targeted him 23 times in their two starts together. He’s still the TE3 with considerable room to spare.

Worry a bit more about Engram, who ended two second-half games with exactly one catch. Remember that this is before the Giants drafted Saquon Barkley and welcomed back Odell Beckham Jr., so expect fewer than his overall 7.3 PPG from the tight end’s sophomore season.