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Pitchers to Target in Deep Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

Pitchers to Target in Deep Leagues (Fantasy Baseball)

This week’s Pitchers to Target in Deep Leagues has a theme, and it’s a little different than the other versions of this piece to this point. This week’s features only prospects. It’s the All-Star Break, and now is a great time to look at some potential future all-stars. I’ve chosen to only include prospect pitchers who are in the upper minors since they’re the most likely to actually reach “The Show” this year.

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Michael Kopech (CHW): Yahoo! – 10%, ESPN – 5%
This actually isn’t the first time Kopech has been featured in this piece. Back in late April, I discussed him as a stash option here. Since then, Kopech’s control struggles have resurfaced. In 18 starts spanning 88.1 innings at the Triple-A level, the flame-throwing right-hander has a putrid 14.5% BB%, 11 hit batsmen, and 10 wild pitches. The horrendous control has inflated his WHIP to 1.39 despite holding hitters to a tiny .204 average. Despite the ugly walk rate, he’s posted a 4.48 ERA — which is admittedly not good, but it’s not horrendous, either — that’s significantly higher than his 3.75 FIP and 3.88 xFIP, according to FanGraphs.

Kopech hasn’t been completely undone by his free passes because his electric arsenal has helped him pile up a 31.1% K% and 12.1% SwStr%. The young right-hander’s fastball is elite, and his slider continues to earn plus grades, too. He ranks 10th on MLB Pipeline’s top-100 prospect list, and he ranks 15th on Baseball Prospectus’s mid-season updated top-50 prospect list. His long-term upside remains significant, but he’s unlikely to help gamers in re-draft leagues this season. The White Sox are in no rush to promote him, and he’ll likely remain in the minors the rest of the year with the potential for a call-up after rosters expand on September 1.

Justus Sheffield (NYY): Yahoo! – 4%, ESPN – 2%
The Yankees need help in their rotation, and while they’re kicking the tires on trade targets, they might have an answer sitting at the Triple-A level. Sheffield’s name has come up in trade rumors, but the Yankees appear reluctant to include him in any deals. If the Bronx Bombers are unable to swing a deal for rotation help, Sheffield could get the call soon.

He opened the year with five starts at the Double-A level before forcing the organization’s hand to promote him to Triple-A after spinning a 2.25 ERA (2.49 FIP and 2.77 xFIP). He hasn’t slowed down much at the Triple-A level. In 11 appearances (10 starts) spanning 57.0 innings, he has a 2.53 ERA (3.13 FIP and 3.67 xFIP), 1.18 WHIP, 10.2% BB%, 23.8% K%, 11.7% SwStr%, and 44.0% GB%.

The lefty’s walk rate is a bit high, and it could lead to initial struggles. He does have bat-missing stuff, and MLB Pipeline grades his fastball and slider as 60 on the 20-to-80 scale while tossing a 55 on his changeup. He checked in 39th on their top-100 prospect list, and Sheffield ranked one spot lower (40th) on Baseball Prospectus’s mid-season top-50 prospect list. Out of the pitchers featured in this piece, Sheffield is likely the closest to a promotion. He can potentially help in strikeouts and wins (he’s backed by an elite offense, after all) in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only formats, but his walk rate and homer-friendly home park will make it tough for him to be useful in standard leagues. Sheffield remains an excellent dynasty league arm.

Forrest Whitley (HOU): Yahoo! – 3%, ESPN – 3%
Whitley’s odds of making waves in fantasy leagues this year were long with a loaded rotation and a pair of bullpen arms — Brad Peacock and Collin McHugh — likely ahead of him in the event of the injury bug taking multiple bites out of Houston’s rotation. The odds got even longer when he was handed a 50-game suspension to open the season for violating the league’s drug prevention and treatment program. He made his season debut at the Double-A level on June 8, and his single-game high for innings pitched in six games is just 4.1 innings. In 21.0 innings pitched at the Double-A level this year, he has a 4.29 ERA (3.24 FIP and 3.26 xFIP), 1.05 WHIP, 9.1% BB%, 34.1% K%, 14.3% SwStr%, and 40.4% GB%.

The 20-year-old righty ranks ninth on MLB Pipeline’s top-100 prospect list, and he checked in at the same spot on Baseball Prospectus’s midseason top-50 prospect list. He pitched just two-thirds of an inning in his last start and hit the minor-league disabled list with a mild oblique strain. Whitley’s a long shot to see the Bigs this season, even after rosters expand. He’s still arguably the highest-ceiling prospect pitcher, though. MLB Pipeline gives his fastball and curveball a 65 on the 20-to-80 scale, and his slider and changeup don’t lag too far behind earning a 55 grade. That’s four pitches that are slightly above average to true plus offerings along with an average control grade. Additionally, he has a workhorse frame at 6-foot-7 and at least his listed weight on MiLB.com of 195 pounds (listed heights and weights for prospects aren’t often updated, and Whitley’s a maturing young man at just 20-years old). He’s dynasty league gold.

Jesus Luzardo (OAK): Yahoo! – 1%, ESPN – 0%
Luzardo rounds out the quartet of featured prospect arms, and he’s not even available in the ESPN player pool yet. He doesn’t have as clear of a path to a rotation spot as Sheffield, and he’s pitching a level lower at Double-A, but Oakland’s lefty probably has the best odds of this group of playing his way into standard-league relevance in the event he does get called up down the stretch. The A’s find themselves in the thick of the playoff race just three games out of the second Wild Card, and they traditionally haven’t been shy about promoting their prospect arms when they deem them ready to help the parent club.

The 20-year-old southpaw ranks 20th on MLB Pipeline’s top-100 prospect list and 13th on Baseball Prospectus’s midseason top-50. Luzardo started the Futures Game for the World team and pitched two innings. He opened the season overmatching High-A hitters for three starts, and he’s continued to dominate at the Double-A level. In 13 Double-A starts spanning 63.2 innings, he has a 2.54 ERA (2.87 FIP and 3.15 xFIP), 1.01 WHIP, 5.9% BB%, 29.1% K%, 14.2% SwStr%, and 44.3% GB%. The scouting grades are as glowing as the numbers. MLB Pipeline grades his fastball a 65, his changeup a 60, and his curve a 55 with 60 control and an overall grade of 55 (which seems low given the grades on his stuff and control). MLB Pipeline notes his “polish,” a word used in other reputable scouting reports to describe Luzardo’s pitching. In addition to his scouting grades and success in the minors making him a desirable pitcher to roster in dynasty leagues (and scoop in all leagues once he reaches the majors), he’ll also call home a pitcher-friendly park that suppresses homers at O.co Coliseum.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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