There’s no shortage of touted arms in this week’s Pitchers to Target in Deep Leagues. After turning my attention to some prospects last week during the All-Star Break, my focus has returned to immediate (or potentially near-immediate, in one case) help. Coincidentally, three of the five highlighted pitchers got the ball for starts last night. Their stats discussed below do not include yesterday’s starts.
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Zack Wheeler (NYM): Yahoo! – 27%, ESPN – 19%
Wheeler’s 4.44 ERA through his first 18 starts doesn’t jump off the page as fantasy worthy in most leagues, but his advanced metrics paint a more favorable picture. He’s tallied a 3.74 FIP, 4.02 xFIP, and 4.10 SIERA, per FanGraphs, and 3.64 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus, through his first 18 starts. Wheeler’s been a solid source of strikeouts with a 23.0% K%, and he’s missing bats at a high rate with an 11.0% SwStr%.
The 28-year-old righty has had some ups and downs, but he’s been at his best since bottoming out versus the Rockies on May 4. In his 13 starts spanning 79.1 innings following that May 4 disaster, he’s totaled a 3.97 ERA (3.45 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, and 3.96 SIERA), 1.29 WHIP, 8.7% BB%, 24.6% K%, and 11.4% SwStr%. Those numbers would play in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers. One thing worth noting is that Wheeler’s name has been bandied about in trade rumors, and a move to a hitter-friendly park would obviously hurt his value. Regardless, he’s worth an add in all but the shallowest of leagues.
Andrew Suarez (SF): Yahoo! – 22%, ESPN – 21%
Suarez has pitched extremely well at every professional stop, but his scouting reports were never as glowing as his results. He wasn’t a total non-prospect, though, so perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise he’s succeeded as a rookie this year. Through 16 starts, he’s posted a sub-four ERA (3.94) that’s actually been a bit unlucky per his 3.52 FIP, 3.34 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA, and 3.16 DRA. The southpaw backs his useful ERA with a respectable 1.22 WHIP. He is stingy with free passes (5.8% BB%), keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate (52.4% GB%), and owns a 22.6% K% that belies his underwhelming 7.4% SwStr%.
Before regressing his strikeout rate too harshly due to his poor SwStr%, consider the depth of his arsenal. It’s possible that his two fastballs (fourseam and sinker), changeup, curveball, and slider could help him earn some called third strikes via pitch sequencing and fooling hitters. Furthermore, his 14.7% SwStr% on his slider, while not impressive for that pitch type, gives him a semi-weapon in same-handed matchups. Suarez isn’t by any stretch a must-start pitcher in each of his starts, but he can be helpful if used wisely. Namely, he should be started at home (3.35 ERA, 3.34 FIP, and 3.28 xFIP at home). He’s best benched against righty-heavy lineups (.341 wOBA allowed to 277 right-handed batters faced this year) and handled with caution on the road (4.65 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and 3.41 xFIP).
Trevor Cahill (OAK): Yahoo! – 19%, ESPN – 19%
Listen, I’m sure by now you’re sick of seeing Cahill appear in this piece. However, his ownership rate remains below 20% at both Yahoo! and ESPN, and that’s absurd. Among pitchers who’ve pitched at least 55 innings this year, Cahill’s 2.83 DRA is 19th best, according to Baseball Prospectus. That’s a top-20 DRA that supports his sub-three ERA (2.95). He’s made two starts this month after hitting the disabled list in early June. The first was rough around the edges against the Astros (a forgivable offense), but he was sharper in his second start holding the Giants to just one run on a solo blast, two hits, three walks, and five strikeouts in 5.2 innings pitched. Will Cahill maintain his level of excellence the rest of the year? Maybe not, but the underlying stats support his work to date, and the only knock on him this season is the time he’s missed due to injury. Cahill is hands down my favorite pitching option touted in this week’s piece.
Yefry Ramirez (BAL): Yahoo! – 1%, ESPN – 1%
In an otherwise awful season, the O’s might have unearthed a useful gem in Ramirez. The 24-year-old right-hander pitched at a respectable level in 14 starts spanning 72 innings at the Triple-A level this year, totaling a 3.88 ERA (3.67 FIP and 3.94 xFIP), 1.17 WHIP, 7.3% BB%, 24.0% K%, and 11.8% SwStr%. He parlayed that work into a call up, and he’s pitched well. In his first five appearances (four starts), he whipped up a 3.09 ERA (3.63 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, 3.92 SIERA, and 4.57 DRA), 1.20 WHIP, 9.3% BB%, and 24.7% K%.
A look at his plate discipline numbers provides reason for optimism of him continuing to pitch well. He owns a 35.7% O-Swing% (30.6% league average), 65.0% F-Strike% (60.5% league average), and 14.0% SwStr% (10.6% league average). By getting ahead of hitters at an above-average rate, he’s been able to get away with a below-average Zone% (37.0% for Ramirez compared to a league average of 43.1%). The righty doesn’t have a jaw-dropping arsenal, thus, it behooves him to be careful in and around the zone. Put another way, he doesn’t have the goods to just shove it down hitters’ throats, and his plate discipline numbers seem to indicate he recognizes that.
Robert Stephenson (CIN): Yahoo! – 0%, ESPN – 0%
Stephenson rounds out this week’s deep league suggestions. He was featured in this piece a couple weeks ago, and you can read his write up in that piece here. Since getting the nod in that piece, he’s made another start. That start came on July 17, and it was another gem. He held Rochester to just two earned runs on six hits, two walks, and five strikeouts in seven innings. He made zero wild pitches in that start. He’s now strung together four straight starts with three walks or fewer. The young righty was knocked around on June 6, but he’s been in a groove since. In six starts spanning 36.0 innings since that rough start, he has a 2.00 ERA (2.43 FIP), 1.11 WHIP, 8.3% BB%, 32.4% K%, just three wild pitches, and zero hit batsmen. The control has been acceptable, especially relative to his career struggles. He’s also more than offset his free passes with his ability to strike batters out. The once highly-touted prospect has shed his prospect status due to no longer being rookie eligible (121.2 innings pitched in “The Show”), and he’s in a weird spot where many already prematurely view him as a bust, but he’s not eligible to be discussed among prospects. As a result, he’s an easy pitcher to overlook. The Reds are likely to call him up and see if his new found success in the minors will translate to the Majors, and they could do so soon. Gamers in 14-team mixers or deeper formats should add him immediately upon his promotion. He’s also a stash candidate for gamers in leagues with deep benches. In shallower leagues, Stephenson should be monitored since he has the strikeout upside to play his way onto rosters there, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
