In my last article, I looked at one of the single roster spot positions in standard leagues, the quarterback. I focused on grabbing consistent performers that were falling below value. In this article, I’ll do the same with tight ends particularly focusing on “guaranteed” target share. I recently updated my tight end tiers using FantasyPros consensus projections. You can view that below.
Here’s a look at current TE tiers using @FantasyPros consensus projections. I’ll post an article this week highlighting two guys I’m targeting outside of the top ten. pic.twitter.com/AZ01ZlbYfs
– David McDougald (@DavidMcDou) July 14, 2018
Unlike the quarterbacks, I think there’s a lot of value in drafting an elite tight end given the right draft position. Rob Gronkowski would outscore the 11th tight end off the board by a massive six points per game based on current consensus projections. I wrote an article last year focusing solely on the value of Gronkowski, and a lot of that article remains true in 2018. Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz are each projected to outscore the 11th tight end off the board by four points per game.
In this article, I’ll assume you’ve decided to pass on the top 10 tight ends and take your chances on value further down the board. If that’s the case, there are two tight ends who should receive up to 20 percent of the respective team’s target shares and have a chance to be either the primary or secondary target all year long. The first, Jared Cook is going in the mid-TE2 range and is getting very little love despite leading the Raiders in receiving yards in 2017. Similarly, Charles Clay is falling all the way into the TE3 range despite leading the Bills in receiving yardage. Cook and Clay finished as the seventh and eighth tight ends in receiving yards per game, respectively.
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Jared Cook (OAK): ADP TE18
Cook had a diminishing role in 2015 and was shipped to the Packers for the 2016 season. Many predicted a strong season while being paired with Aaron Rodgers, but the connection just never materialized. In 2017, though, Cook found something with Derek Carr as he managed to nab 54 receptions for 688 yards and two touchdowns. Cook led the Raiders in receiving yards and was the second-leading receiver in catches.
In the offseason, the Raiders retained Amari Cooper while jettisoning Michael Crabtree in favor of Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant. Crabtree led the team in receptions in 2017, so a lot of target share is up for grabs. Nelson has lost a step and is reaching the red flag age for wide receivers in the NFL, while Bryant has his known issues of a different sort. I think this leaves a clear path to Cook being the second-leading receiver for the Raiders again in 2018, behind Cooper.
John Gruden commented on Cook after seeing him for the first time in person, “I knew he had really good pass receiving skills, but we can line him up at a lot of different places.” This was a nod to Cook’s large frame and his accompanying 4.49 40-yard speed and overall athleticism. Cook had a 17% target share last year and would be in line for a late TE1 showing if he can match or increase that.
Currently, Cook is going in the 15th or 16th round of standard drafts. I’m more than happy to wait for him to fall to me there as I stockpile upside receivers and backs.
Charles Clay (BUF): ADP TE23
Clay is falling much further than Cook. Clay’s current overall ADP is 214 (TE23), so he’s either going very late or not at all in standard drafts. In only 13 games during 2017, Clay accumulated 74 targets that yielded 49 receptions, 558 yards, and two touchdowns. In the last five years, Clay has averaged 57 catches, 600 yards, and over three touchdowns a year while never having fewer than 528 receiving yards. A bit of positive regression in touchdown total could easily yield a low-end TE1 outcome for Clay.
Clay consumed a whopping 16% of the Bills’ target share despite playing in only 13 games. With Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones as his main competition for targets (excluding LeSean McCoy), it’s not unreasonable to envision a 20% target share if he stays healthy. Additionally, Clay’s hold on the tight end snaps isn’t in question as backup Nick O’Leary has proven to be an inconsistent player.
So, how am I managing the tight end position? As I mentioned early in the article, I am taking one of the “big three” tight ends in some leagues. In leagues where that’s not the case, I’m actively targeting Cook in Rounds 14-16, depending on how each particular draft is going. In drafts where I do go after a top-tier tight end, I’m using Clay’s perceived low value to grab a highly consistent performer as a backup or matchup-based play very late. Until next time, good luck in your drafts!
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David McDougald is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidMcDou.