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Target Increase Candidates: Wide Receivers (2018 Fantasy Football)

Target Increase Candidates: Wide Receivers (2018 Fantasy Football)

In fantasy football, volume is king. Volume can make even the weakest of NFL players fantasy relevant. My mantra for 2018 is situation + opportunity > talent. I have been repeating it and restating it whenever I can because it is something I have not respected enough in previous years. Just because a clearly more talented player exists on a team does not mean the lesser talented starter isn’t more valuable because he is the one getting the volume.

For wide receivers, volume comes in the form of targets. Value comes in the form of WRs that are poised to see an increase in targets, but aren’t necessarily priced as such. Let’s take a look at some WRs who should see a bump in targets and discuss how much more we should like them for fantasy football.

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T.Y. Hilton (IND)
The Colts’ WR1 hasn’t missed a game in his NFL career. From 2013-2016, Hilton’s target count was as follows: 139, 131, 134, 155. That’s relatively consistent with 2016 being a bit of an outlier. Either way, around 130-140 targets is just fine. Last season, Hilton only saw 109 targets. Obviously that had a lot (okay, everything) to do with Andrew Luck’s malfunctioning shoulder.

This analysis is pretty easy, but it bears mentioning anyway because Hilton’s ADP will be one worth tracking throughout the preseason. As long as Luck is healthy, and all indications are that he will be, Hilton should return to that 130-140 target range and be a fantasy WR1. With the overall poor performance from WRs in 2017 and the RB renaissance, fantasy owners can now secure WR1s as late as the third round in drafts. You can let your league mates draft Keenan Allen and Julio Jones around the 1-2 turn when you know you can get a just as valuable T.Y. Hilton at the 2-3 turn, which is ultimately where I expect Hilton’s ADP to land.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)
After not seeing a single target in Week 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster saw at least three targets in every subsequent game in 2017. However, he was not truly involved in the offense until about halfway through the season when he had his breakout game at Detroit with seven catches on 10 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown.

Over his first seven games, JuJu saw 26 targets. Over his final seven games, he saw 53 targets. It’s the finish that we should focus on. JuJu enters 2018 as the clear WR2 alongside the best WR in football. We know Antonio Brown is going to “get his,” but there are plenty of targets to go around in this offense. Those final seven games where JuJu saw at least five targets in every single one are very promising for what his 2018 target share will look like. The only bad news about JuJu is that this increase in volume is mostly built into his draft price, which may end up making him a bit overvalued. As a general rule, outside of the first two rounds, you should try and avoid drafting players at their ceiling. Unless AB goes down, it is hard to envision JuJu returning much more than fourth-round value.

Allen Hurns (DAL)
This one is easy. Allen Hurns was previously stuck in a crowded WR corps tethered to the worst starting QB in the NFL, Blake Bortles. This season, in addition to the massive upgrade at QB to Dak Prescott, Hurns is poised to see the largest target share of his career.

In 2015, Hurns played 15 games and saw 105 targets. He saw 56 targets in 10 games last season. This season, with Dez Bryant gone and the only other WR on Dallas’ roster with any modicum of actual talent being rookie Michael Gallup, Hurns is the clear lead dog. He should easily command at least 120 targets, if not more. Hurns’ ninth-round ADP is almost sure to rise and he has legitimate WR2 upside, especially if the incompetent Dallas coaching staff is going to start Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley ahead of Gallup.

Jordan Matthews (NE)
Here’s a look at Jordan Matthews’ target counts over his first three seasons: 103, 126, 117. Last season? 36. Granted he only played 10 games, but he wasn’t going to even get close to 100. Now I’m not suggesting he will necessarily push 100 targets on New England, but the opportunity may be there.

Brandin Cooks is off to Los Angeles. Julian Edelman is suspended for four games. That leaves Matthews to compete with Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell for the WR targets. Matthews is a near lock to exceed the 3.6 targets per game he averaged in 2017. Even if he only averages 5.0 targets per game, which puts him at 80 on the season, that should at least be enough to have WR3/4 value. Matthews is currently being drafted outside the top 60 WRs. We’re talking about the most productive WR in SEC history that started his NFL career with two excellent seasons. He did not suddenly become bad at football. JMatt just needs the opportunity and he very well may get it.

Albert Wilson (MIA)
I went to check Albert Wilson’s ADP and discovered he doesn’t have one. The man isn’t even being drafted! Miami’s WR corps is a bit crowded with Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, Danny Amendola, and Albert Wilson. However, there still exists reason to believe Wilson should improve up on the 62 targets he saw last season. I believe Wilson can push 100 targets.

The Dolphins signed Amendola and Wilson as a way to replace Jarvis Landry’s 161 targets. Repeat that in your head for a moment – 161 targets. No single player is replacing that. Amendola will be 33 years old this season and has a lengthy injury history. Plus, the Dolphins gave Wilson a longer deal and more money. That matters. Stills is unlikely to see much more than the 105 targets he saw last year. I will continue to remind everyone how much Parker sucks at football. If given the choice between throwing to garbage DeVante Parker or literally any other WR on the team, Ryan Tannehill will eventually be conditioned to do the right thing. There’s a definite path to 100 targets for Wilson, which would almost certainly give him fantasy value. For a deeper dive into Wilson, check out R.C. Fischer’s very deep sleeper report on Wilson.

Target Regression Candidates: Running Backs
Target Increase Candidates: Running Backs
Target Regression Candidates: Wide Receivers
Target Regression Candidates: Tight Ends
Target Increase Candidates: Tight Ends


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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive follow him @jasonkatz13, and listen to him on the Fantasy Forensics Podcast.

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