Welcome to the final edition of “Burning Questions” for the 2018 fantasy baseball season. It’s been a pleasure writing this weekly column for FantasyPros as I’ve covered everything from prospects to veterans on their last legs and everything in between. For my final piece of 2018, I want to give as much advice to owners who are making their push for the championship. With the trade deadline in fantasy leagues long gone, it’s all about the waiver wire. I covered hitters to add last week, check it out. Today, in order to pack as much valuable information for your playoff run, I’ll cover mostly pitching matchups and discuss some September call-ups.
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Which available pitchers have the best matchups?
The calendar changes to September this weekend, the final month of the fantasy baseball season. Decisions have to be made about which players can help your team and which players may not. Cycling pitchers who have favorable matchups is a great strategy if done correctly. You may have to let go of a pitcher who has had more value the first five months of the season but has a grueling schedule going forward which docks his value. Let’s look at a few waiver wire arms with favorable schedules going forward.
German Marquez (SP – COL) 47% Owned
Despite a 2.16 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in his last 41.2 innings, Marquez is somehow under 50% owned. The addition to your roster with Marquez is less about his upcoming schedule and more about how great he’s been both at home and on the road. His recent pitching performance isn’t just a hot streak, he’s pitched well most of the year but Coors Field and bad luck have hurt his overall numbers. Per xStats.org, in terms of wOBA (weighted on-base average) minus xOBA (expected on-base average), his differential is greater than any pitcher in the league. That means he’s been unlucky. This week, Marquez gets the Padres on the road (nice), followed by the Giants at home, @ARI, then @SFG, @ARI, and home against the Phillies. Other than the home start against the Diamondbacks, Marquez has a pretty solid slate of games remaining.
Shane Bieber (SP – CLE) 41% Owned
I’m working my way down to much lower-owned starters but these first two are for shallow mixed leagues. Bieber’s probable starts lineup like this:
TBR, @Tor, @TBR, CHW, @CHW, and @KCR
I don’t love that four of the six starts are on the road, but Bieber hasn’t had much of a home/road split in his rookie campaign. I’m really loving the last three starts because the White Sox have the highest strikeout rate as a team at 27% this past month and the Royals are bottom five in terms of wOBA. The Rays have been an average team offensively in the last 30 days and so have the Blue Jays thanks mostly to Kendrys Morales. Bieber limits walks and gets strikeouts but has been extremely unlucky in terms of BABIP. I’ll take my chances with a soft schedule and BABIP regression for Bieber in September.
Matt Boyd (SP – DET) 29% Owned
Boyd has been strong in the second half posting a 2.53 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, with 40 strikeouts in 42 innings. While he’s been a bit on the lucky side, his walk rate has dropped significantly since the start of July and he’s inducing more pop-ups even with an increased fly ball rate. Boyd’s remaining schedule looks very tasty. Outside of a road start in Cleveland and to a lesser extent, a home start against the Cardinals, check out who else Boyd faces. In parenthesis show the team’s (wOBA) for the last 30 days.
@KC (.301), @CHW (.319), Home vs KC (.301), @MIN (.310) with league average at .320.
Go get him.
Steven Matz (SP – NYM) 12% Owned
You don’t have to tell me that Matz has been bad this year, I get that. Have you seen his projected schedule the rest of the season though? Here it is:
@SFG, home vs PHI, home vs MIA, @PHI, @WSH, home vs MIA
Remember how we talked about the league average wOBA is around .320? Well, the Marlins wOBA as a team .263 the last 30 days while the Giants aren’t much better at .271! That’s like facing an entire team of Alcides Escobar‘s three times in his remaining six games. The Nationals are better but the Phillies are 24th in the league at .304, though they are better at home. Matz has also been much better at home this year with a 3.84 ERA opposed to a 5.03 ERA on the road. I’d roll the dice at SF but would leave him on the bench when the Mets travel to Washington. Otherwise, he’s a solid start in 14-team leagues and deeper and I’d stream him in 10 or 12-team leagues in his starts against Miami at home.
Lucas Giolito (SP – CHW) 18% Owned
This is not a joke, I promise. Forget about the fact that he was carrying a 6+ ERA well into July or that he’s facing the Red Sox in his next outing. After that, he gets DET, @KCR, @BAL, CHC, and finishes @MIN. Since July 8th, Giolito has increased in strikeout rate, decreased his walk rate, and has a 52% ground ball rate. Similar to Matz above, Giolito is not a shallow league stream option with his limited upside, but in deep leagues, you could do a lot worse given the shallow player pool.
Which highly owned pitchers have unfavorable matchups down the stretch?
Blake Snell (SP – TB) 94% owned; Zack Greinke (SP – ARI) 99% owned
If you’re waiting for me to tell you to drop these studs, then you’re even crazier than I thought. No, of course you’re not dropping Snell or Greinke, they are part of the reason you are competing for the playoffs! I do want to point out a few starts for each pitcher to be careful of. It’s possible, you might even want to bench them for an inferior pitcher with a much better matchup. Snell gets the Indians on the road this week. As tough as that matchup is, Snell has been red-hot handling the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros over the past couple months. I’m starting him there. If he begins to struggle at all, I’d worry about his stretch of home vs OAK, @TEX, and home vs NYY.
Greinke has what I call the Murders Row of the NL plus a road start against the Astros. Here are his next five matchups:
@LAD, ATL, @COL, @ HOU, COL
I’m starting him at home but I question starting him on any of those road games except maybe against the Dodgers. Keep Greinke on your bench for the other two road games and look for a replacement like one of the pitchers I listed above.
Rick Porcello (SP – BOS) 93% Owned
Porcello looks a lot like he did when he won the Cy Young back in 2016. Porcello hasn’t been quite as good, but he has increased his strikeout rate by nearly 2.5%. Here’s the thing, Porcello actually has a couple nice matchups this week and next week getting the White Sox and Braves on the road followed by the Blue Jays at home. That’s not all that bad and I’m starting him there. After that, I may be looking to drop him in redrafts because he’s facing the Indians at home sandwiched between two starts against the Yankees, one home and one away. With Gary Sanchez about to return and the possibility of Aaron Judge back as well, these could be nightmare matchups for Porcello. Depending on your situation, he could be a drop in redrafts the last week and a half of the season.
Which potential September call-ups are worth a look?
I’ve talked about Christin Stewart (OF -DET) before and while an injury held him back from being called up earlier this year, there’s nothing holding him back once rosters expand. Stewart is a 24-year-old classic power hitter but has improved his walk rate this year. His 21 home runs are impressive considering the International League typically suppresses power numbers. He’s worth a shot if you need power but shouldn’t hit for average. In OBP leagues, he’s a nice grab starting this week.
Josh James (SP – HOU) has racked up the strikeouts in Double and Triple-A this year with an incredible 171 strikeouts in only 124.1 innings pitched! I understand the Astros have several options to start games even with McCullers on the disabled list. However, James could see a spot start or two, especially if one of the Astros horses need a short trip to the DL. Also, keep an eye on Forrest Whitley who is the Astros number one pitching prospect. Whitley has only thrown 26.1 innings this year thanks to a suspension, but that means no limit for him and a possible call-up next month,
Victor Robles (OF – WAS) is kind of the forgotten man in the Washington Nationals Minor League system thanks to the success of Juan Soto. Coming into the year, Robles was a top-five prospect on almost all lists. He already has great speed and can handle the bat with developing power. A shoulder injury pushed Robles’ 2018 MLB debut back and while he won’t have a starting spot upon a September call, he’s worth an add in most leagues. He’s an injury away from getting everyday at-bats and should produce immediately.
Francisco Mejia (C, OF – SD) is absolutely mashing in Triple-A right now hitting .300 with four homers in 26 games since being traded to the Padres from the Indians. There’s been talk that Mejia may not stick at catcher, but the Padres have only played him there since the acquisition. The catcher position is so shallow, in one league I play in, Yan Gomes is a top-12 player at the position. With Buster Posey going down, Mejia is a great high-average, moderate-power option to roster down the stretch.
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Max Freeze is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Max, check out his archive and follow him @FreezeStats.
