With trade deadlines coming to a close, if not already having passed, in most leagues, this will be our final edition of the buy/sell column. Below you can find two players to buy low for the stretch run and a pair to sell high in order to improve your team elsewhere.
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Buy Low
Tommy Pham (OF – TB)
At the mid-season trade deadline, the Cardinals traded Pham to the Rays for whom the outfielder played two games before going on the disabled list with a fractured foot. Pham is expected to miss at least a month with the injury, which he sustained when he was hit by a pitch. The Cardinals were hoping Pham would return to the form that made him a breakout player in 2017 when he came out of nowhere to bat .306 with 23 homers and 25 steals last season.
Unfortunately, he wasn’t hitting anywhere near that well for the Cardinals who were disappointed with his .244 average, 14 homers, and 10 steals. Pham is fighting an ongoing battle with keratoconus, an eye condition that leads to blurred vision, sensitivity to light and difficulty picking up the ball at night. It is possible that he’s simply not seeing the ball as well as he did last season. However, his 47.5 Hard% is an improvement over last season, and he’s pulling the ball more often, which usually helps a power hitter.
There are slight increases in his swinging strike rate and his swing rate on pitches out of the zone, but neither of these metrics account for his reduced productivity at the plate. Over the first six weeks of the season, Pham was producing at a rate similar to 2017. Since then, he’s been streaky with several stretches in which he simply raked. Consider Pham a sneaky play for the month of September. Since he’s currently disabled, you can probably pick him up on waivers or very cheap in a trade. Stash him away for his return next month when the Rays are certain to bat him in the heart of their lineup. They consider Pham an impact hitter and will give him every chance to prove he belongs in their cleanup spot. Last September, Pham batted .282/.429/.513 with four homers, 12 RBIs, 20 runs scored, and eight stolen bases. That would look good on anybody’s stat sheet.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B – TOR)
We’ve been hearing about Guerrero’s exploits all season. In June, around the time that his Super Two date passed, the clamoring to promote him among the members of the Toronto media and the Blue Jays’ fan base reached a fever pitch based on the notion that Guerrero could almost single-handedly carry the team on his back to the post-season. Indeed, it’s not every day that a 19-year-old minor leaguer is dangerously close to finishing a season at any level with a batting average north of .400. In fact, it has been 57 years since that feat was accomplished by none other than Ted Williams, the “Splendid Splinter.”
If you have an opportunity to make a trade that will put you in position to acquire Guerrero, you simply must do it. Let’s list a few of the highlights from this season alone. Guerrero has played through four different levels of the Blue Jays’ minor league system with a cumulative batting average of .390 with 18 HRs in 80 games. He hit 14 of his home runs at Double-A New Hampshire, where he played 61 games with a .401/.449/.671 triple slash. Guerrero was then promoted to Triple-A Buffalo, and all he’s done is hit home runs in four consecutive games and go 16-for-48 (.333).
The Blue Jays recently promoted a handful of their top prospects to the Major League club, mainly to fill in for injured players. With the team currently 16 games out of both first place in the AL East and the wild-card standings, there is nothing left to play for this season. It’s only a matter of time before Guerrero is promoted, and while he might not hit for great power against Major League pitching, he will very likely hit for a decent batting average and provide his fantasy owners with plenty of counting stats and stolen bases. You won’t be able to touch him in dynasty leagues, but you can probably snag him in redraft formats to help boost your team down the stretch. This isn’t a traditional buy low move but his value will go through the roof once he arrives.
Sell High
Ian Kinsler (2B – BOS)
Since the trade that sent Kinsler to Red Sox, he’s 4-for-10 with two Runs, two RBIs and a stolen base. So, it appears the change of scenery and a shot at World Series play is agreeing with the 36-year-old second baseman. However, Kinsler’s hot hitting really started at the beginning of June with the return of his power stroke; he’s mashed 10 home runs since June 1 after hitting just three bombs over the season’s first two months. About three weeks into June, around the 26th, is when Kinsler finally started to hit for average. Over the 30 games since June 26, Kinsler is batting .309/.372/.455, and he cut his strikeout rate for the season down to just 10.4 percent during that span.
We’ve seen some regression to the mean here for Kinsler, but his 31.1% hard-hit rate and 9.4% HR/FB rate indicate that the HR power is likely unsustainable. Kinsler’s IFFB rate remains high at 13.8%, and all those infield popups along with a 36.6% groundball rate, his highest such rate since 2014, will eventually bring him back down to Earth. Try to convince one of your league-mates that Kinsler is in the midst of a hitting renaissance and sneak away with the goods you get in return.
Aledmys Diaz (3B/SS – TOR)
Diaz took over most of the shortstop duties when Troy Tulowitzki went down with his season-ending injury, and he’s done a fair job, batting .258 with 35 RBIs, 45 Runs, and three stolen bases. However, he’s heated up quite a bit over the last several weeks. Since the beginning of the second half on July 20, Diaz is batting .314 with seven HRs, 12 RBIs, 14 Runs, and a pair of steals. The Blue Jays are getting decimated with injuries. They’ve lost Josh Donaldson, Yangervis Solarte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Brandon Drury among others to the injury bug.
Fortunately, Diaz has really stepped up his game during this time batting .314/.338/.686 over the last 30 days with seven home runs, 12 RBIs, 14 Runs and two stolen bases. A look over Diaz’ skill metrics indicates that he could be in for some regression. His 11.7% SwStr rate and points to pitch recognition issues, a notion that is supported by his 36.8% O-Swing rate at pitches outside the hitting zone. Besides, his 79.7% contact rate is too low to maintain an average above .300. The power is also a bit of a surprise given his below average 32.4 Hard%.
While Diaz will likely keep the SS job the rest of the season, you’d be best served to pawn him off on someone else in need of middle infield help if you can. He really doesn’t have the skills to maintain his current hot hitting streak.
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Tim McCullough is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tim, follow him @timstenz.
