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6 Traded Pitchers to Buy/Sell (Fantasy Baseball)

6 Traded Pitchers to Buy/Sell (Fantasy Baseball)

Last week we took a look at a six-pack of hitters whose value has changed now that they’ve been traded to a new team. This week, we’ll turn our attention to some of the pitchers who got dealt ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.

Even more so than with hitters, pitchers’ fortunes can change drastically with a change in uniform. Switching between the AL and NL will always be a big deal until/unless baseball does away with pitchers batting in the Senior Circuit (I like it the way it is, for the record). A switch in home ballpark is also at least as big a factor for pitchers as it is for hitters.

Then there’s the more subtle factors that often get overlooked, such as a pitching coach who slightly alters a pitcher’s mechanics, or a manger who is more willing to pitch his starters deep into games. Those subtler factors are very difficult to recognize in advance, but they can make a world of difference for some pitchers.

One factor that tends to get overrated, though, is run support. While many leagues do still value wins, it remains a notoriously difficult statistic to predict. You’ll notice that the top two sell-high candidates this week are pitchers who have joined the Yankees and Red Sox. In addition to the fair share of media hype that pitchers going to New York and Boston receive (I’m a Red Sox fan, so I’m not saying this dismissively), people will also point to their increased win potential. But the truth is that any benefit there is likely negated by the difficulty of pitching in the Yankees’ and Red Sox’s ballparks, division, and league.

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Players to Buy

Cole Hamels (CHC)
Hamels’ career has taken quite a nosedive over the last two seasons, but a move to the National League could be just what the doctor ordered. In addition to avoiding the DH, Hamels gets a slight boost in terms of ballpark and win potential.

While Wrigley Field is hardly a pitcher’s paradise, especially when the wind is blowing out, it is still quite a bit better for Hamels than Globe Life Park in Arlington, which has been far and away the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball this season. The Cubs’ 4th-ranked offense also should provide more run support than the 10th-ranked Rangers, even though offense has hardly been Texas’ problem this year.

Hamels has managed to get his strikeout rate back up after it fell off a cliff last season, and the move to Chicago should help cut into his bloated 19.7 percent HR/FB rate, leading to better results. His first two starts in a Cubs uniform have gone swimmingly, but his overall numbers are still ugly, so the buying window shouldn’t be completely closed yet.

Chris Archer (PIT)
I named Archer as a buy-low candidate way back in April, but it hasn’t exactly gone according to plan so far. He missed over a month with an abdominal strain and has continued to underperform his peripherals when he has been on the mound (something I acknowledged was possible but considered worth the risk). All of which is to say: he’s still a buy-low candidate!

In fact, he’s an even better buy-low candidate now that he’s been dealt to the Pirates. The move shouldn’t be a huge deal in terms of ballpark (both are pitcher-friendly) or run support (both are middle of the pack), but moving from the AL East to the NL Central is quite significant. He’ll no longer have to worry about the DH or have to frequently pitch against the Red Sox and Yankees, the two most lethal offenses in baseball. Plus, a simple change of scenery may be a good thing for a pitcher who never quite seems to get the results that his stuff and peripherals suggest he is capable of achieving.

Tyler Glasnow (TB)
This one is admittedly for deeper and/or keeper leagues, as Glasnow has been walking far too many hitters to be a reliable asset in standard mixed leagues. Still, the Rays have made it clear that they intend to use Glasnow as a starting pitcher, something that wasn’t happening in Pittsburgh, where he had been pitching in long relief. That alone raises Glasnow’s fantasy ceiling, even in the short term.

Glasnow has always had the kind of filthy stuff necessary to dominate hitters, so factors such as his home ballpark and whether he pitches in the AL or NL are less important for him. The key to his success is and always has been cutting down his ugly walk rate, which currently sits at 5.34 per nine innings this season — and even higher for the entirety of his brief Major League career. The Rays are going to give Glasnow the opportunity to figure out his control issues as a starting pitcher, which means he’ll have more innings to work on it and more upside if he figures it out.

Perhaps Tampa’s coaching staff can figure out how to unlock Glasnow’s potential, much like Pittsburgh’s staff is hoping to do with Archer, who headed the other way in the deal.

Players to Sell

J.A. Happ (NYY)
I hate to pick on a guy with hand, foot, and mouth disease, but it just has to be done. There was a time earlier this season where Happ was an excellent buy-low candidate, but his peripherals have gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. In particular, walks have become an increasingly significant problem for him. But now that Happ is donning the Pinstripes, there may be someone in your league who wants to buy.

The reality of the situation is that moving from Toronto to New York isn’t necessarily an upgrade. Sure, Happ should receive more run support, but he may also give up more runs in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium than he did in the pitcher-friendly Rogers Centre. And while it’s nice that Happ won’t have to face the Yankees anymore, we’re only talking about a start or two.

The bottom line is that AL East pitchers need to be at the top of their game to provide fantasy value, but Happ hasn’t been at the top of his game in quite some time.

Nathan Eovaldi (BOS)
Eovaldi is another pitcher whose perceived value could be on the rise following a move to the Red Sox, particularly after he completely aced his first three starts for his new team. That’s all well and good, but let’s not forget that this is a pitcher who has a career 4.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 6.67 K/9 rate in over 800 career Major League innings.

Even in his last two starts, in which he’s spun 15 scoreless innings, Eovaldi had just nine strikeouts. His drastically improved walk rate this season (1.13 BB/9) is encouraging, but he’s only thrown 72 innings, and even if he maintains that level of control he’ll need to miss more bats to have sustained success at Fenway Park.

Is it possible that Eovaldi rides this hot streak out for the rest of the season? Sure. It’s even possible that his improved control makes him a fantasy asset for years to come. But while Eovaldi is a hard thrower, he’s decidedly not a strikeout pitcher. So there’s real risk that when the hits start falling against him, they come in bunches — much like they have over those first 800 innings.

Kevin Gausman (ATL)
My skepticism of all things Gausman is well-documented, but his move to Atlanta has put that skepticism to the test. In moving from the Orioles to the Braves, Gausman sheds the designated hitter, inherits much more favorable divisional opponents, and perhaps most importantly, goes from a team that seems to consistently screw up pitchers to one that consistently gets the most out of them.

The problem is that this is still Kevin Gausman. While I like Gausman the Brave more than Gausman the Oriole, I still don’t like him enough to trust him in standard mixed leagues. His career numbers look an awful lot like Eovaldi’s but with more strikeouts: a 4.23 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 8.18 K/9 in 768 innings pitched. I’d expect him to be a bit better than that in Atlanta, and there’s no harm in adding him to see what happens. But I’d still have a very hard time relying on him for the fantasy stretch run.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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