August is moving along, and we’re one step closer to meaningful football. Of course, there’s still plenty of preseason action to be enjoyed, but with each passing day, the excitement continues to build for the 2018 NFL season. As we edge nearer to Week 1, more and more fantasy drafts are taking place, and that means we have a lot of Average Draft Position (ADP) data at our disposal.

Here at FantasyPros, we like to analyze this information and see how it compares and contrasts with our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). Today, the subject of our study is ESPN, and we’ll be taking a look at numerous players that are being selected both higher and lower in ESPN drafts than their consensus rankings would indicate is warranted. So let’s get right to it.

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Quarterback (+/-4)

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Russell Wilson wasn’t just the QB1 last year, but the top-scoring player in all of fantasy football. The experts have him ranked as the QB2 for the 2018 season, but it seems drafters remain unconvinced. To an extent, I understand such reticence. The Seahawks have the look of a team headed in the wrong direction, and pass catchers like Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson have left town. Meanwhile, Doug Baldwin is recovering from a knee injury, and the offensive line remains somewhat concerning.

However, this is Russell Wilson we’re talking about. “Danger-Russ” has finished as a top-three fantasy signal-caller in three of the past four seasons, and if the ‘Hawks find themselves trailing a lot in 2018, that will only add to his passing volume. And it’s not like his rushing ability has disappeared. If you can snare him as the QB6 on ESPN, don’t blink. Do it.

I touched on Rivers and Mariota in my ECR vs. CBS ADP column, and the same principles apply here. Rivers is criminally underrated in the fantasy community after years of consistency, while Mariota is primed for a bounce-back season in an improved offense. Both of these men are being drafted as low-end QB2s. That’s screaming value.

ESPN ADP Likes Him More

 
Dak Prescott was fantastic as a rookie in 2016, and he shocked the world with a QB6 fantasy finish. In 2017, his play slipped a bit, but he still produced a QB10 season. By that logic, his QB13 ADP seems like a relative value. Unfortunately, in 2018 he doesn’t find himself surrounded by the best supporting cast of his career. Jason Witten and Dez Bryant are gone, and the Cowboys look like a team that is preparing to adopt a pass-catcher-by-committee approach. I still like him better than his QB19 ECR, however.

Derek Carr is another passer who could be in for a get-it-right campaign. After a QB10 season in 2016, injuries and overall inconsistencies reduced him to QB19 status last year. While he lost his safety blanket Michael Crabtree in the offseason, the Raiders acquired Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant to fill the void. This ranking could prove to be a bit aggressive in a pool as talented and deep as this year’s quarterback class, but with numerous favorable matchups on his slate, I understand the optimism.

ESPN drafters are all in on Cleveland Browns quarterbacks. While FantasyPros’ ECR has them ranked in QB3 territory, they are being taken far higher in drafts. Taylor is being drafted as a high-end QB2, just ahead of young studs like Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes. Mayfield, on the other hand, who may not start a game this season (although he likely will), is being selected ahead of players like the aforementioned Rivers and Mariota, last year’s passer rating leader Alex Smith, and potential breakout passer Mitchell Trubisky. I like both of the Browns’ quarterbacks a lot, but not at these ADPs.

Running Back (+/-4)

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Jordan Howard has rushed for over 1,100 yards in both of his NFL seasons and has been the backbone of the Bears’ offense during that span. Now, he finds himself in a system that is likely to be more efficient, while running more plays per contest. On top of that, he’s been working hard to improve his receiving skills and head coach Matt Nagy has stated that he believes Howard can be a three-down back. I think he’s a total steal at his RB16 ADP, and he could be a fringe top-10 option in 2018.

Alex Collins doesn’t seem to get much respect. After breaking out in 2017 by seizing the Ravens’ starting job in Week 6 and rushing for 973 yards and six touchdowns, en route to an RB16 finish in fantasy, he’s still being drafted as a low-end RB2. Collins received 17-plus touches in eight of his last nine contests and his 4.6 yards per carry was eighth-best among qualified running backs. The Ravens did next to nothing to address the position this offseason, and Collins looks cemented as the lead back. If I can draft him as the RB21, I will be more than happy to take that deal.

No one seems particularly eager to draft Lamar Miller this year, but let’s look at the facts. In 2017, Miller received 274 total touches for 1,215 yards from scrimmage and six total touchdowns. D’Onta Foreman is still recovering from a torn Achilles, and might not be able to make a significant push for playing time in 2018. Oh yeah, Deshaun Watson is back too.

During Watson’s six starts a year ago, Miller rushed for 361 yards, caught 16 passes for 163 yards, and scored four of his six touchdowns. That amounts to 86.3 total yards per contest, for those keeping score. Those are low-end RB1 to top-notch RB2 numbers. Miller may not be an upside play, but his floor makes him well worth his ADP, and possibly more.

Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four weeks of the 2018 season, so your mileage may vary on where he should be drafted. Some people will think he’s a value at his deflated ADP, while others will avoid him altogether. As terrific as he was last season, four games represents a quarter of the fantasy season, and I tend to agree more the cautious ESPN drafters.

Rex Burkhead is reportedly dealing with a “slight tear” in his knee. That doesn’t sound great, in spite of all the reports that the injury is minor. However, assuming he makes a quick recovery, I’m inclined to agree more with his ECR.

Per Player Profiler, Burkhead averaged 1.30 fantasy points per opportunity in 2017, which was 12th-best among running backs. A true do-it-all back in an elite offense, the only impediment to Burkhead’s success is his ability to stay on the field. Keep an eye on this situation.

The Kerryon Johnson hype train is running at full steam. After an impressive preseason opener that saw the rookie pile up 67 total yards on only 11 touches (while having a slick 57-yard run wiped out by a penalty), he began to shoot up draft boards. However, the Lions’ backfield as a whole was far less productive in the second week of exhibition play. With all that said, I’m not convinced that Johnson’s a lock to overtake LeGarrette Blount as the Lions’ top tailback in the near future, but I’m still more inclined to agree with the experts on this one. The rookie has too much talent not to seize a considerable role.

The Broncos never seemed to buy into C.J. Anderson. The veteran had been far-and-away the team’s best runner for years and was coming off his first 1,000-yard rushing season, yet the franchise still released him back in March. I’m torn on where to rank him, going forward. I’m a fan of his talent, but his role is largely dependent on how the Panthers decide to utilize sophomore tailback Christian McCaffrey. Speaking of whom…

ESPN ADP Likes Him More

 
McCaffrey has been the subject of a lot of offseason debate. Will he see an increase on the 117 carries he saw as a rookie? Will he be able to sustain the enormous target share that netted him 113 looks a year ago? How big a role will Anderson play for the Panthers? Head coach Ron Rivera recently implied that McCaffrey could receive 25-30 touches a game, and while that seems highly implausible, his preseason workloads have been enormous. It’s entirely possible the sophomore could validate his RB11 ADP if recent trends continue.

Speculation suggests Royce Freeman will emerge as the Broncos’ lead back in the near future. It makes sense, as the franchise selected the former Oregon standout in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft, and the rookie has looked good so far during the preseason. With that said, his RB17 ADP seems a bit lofty. There’s no evidence to suggest Devontae Booker won’t see plenty of touches as well. There isn’t enough data or information available to project how the workload will be split up when Week 1 rolls around. I like Freeman a lot, but this ADP probably represents his ceiling more than his floor.

Speaking of rookie runners in muddled backfields, I’m a fan of Ronald Jones‘ talent, but right now he’s stuck behind Peyton Barber on the Bucs’ depth chart, and his ADP is slipping. However, the Bucs invested a high second-round pick in the former USC standout, and it’s likely a matter of “if,” not “when” he emerges as the lead back.

The ADP data provided by ESPN is clearly tailored to PPR formats, as pass-catching backs like Duke Johnson, Tarik Cohen, Giovani Bernard, and James White are all being drafted higher than our standard ECR indicates they should be. It’s probably best to make a note of that and always be sure to know all the rules and scoring settings of your league, friends.

Remember all that Kerryon Johnson hype I was talking about earlier? Well, don’t get lost in it and forget about LeGarrette Blount. Blount is an established veteran, head coach Matt Patricia trusts him, and for now, I like his ADP better than his RB55 ECR.

Something similar can be said of Latavius Murray. Reports out of camp imply that the veteran will retain a meaningful role in the offense, which isn’t necessarily what Dalvin Cook drafters want to hear. Murray was productive for the Vikings in 2017 and could have some standalone value at his RB44 ADP. It’s a situation to monitor, at the very least.

Wide Receiver (+/-6)

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Doug Baldwin is a metronome of consistency. Over the last three seasons, he’s never missed a game, has averaged over 100 targets, and has finished between WR8 and WR11 each time. There aren’t many wideouts who have been more reliable. However, Baldwin’s injury is likely knocking him down more than a few draft boards. It’s understandable, but I’m not scared off by it.

As Russell Wilson’s clear-cut top target in an offense that is likely to throw more than it has in years, Baldwin’s upside is as high as it’s ever been. Recent reports that he’s been jogging on the sideline at practice are encouraging, as well. I like him as the WR12, health permitting.

Smith-Schuster was the best rookie receiver in the NFL last season and one of the game’s most efficient wideouts, period. Now, he enters his sophomore season with big-time expectations. Still only 21, he’s just scratching the surface of his potential.

However, his WR19 ECR might be a bit high. Smith-Schuster was only the fourth-most targeted Steelers player a year ago, and this time around, he’s still firmly behind Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell in the pecking order. I expect an uptick on the 80 targets he received as a rookie, but that will likely come with a slight decrease in efficiency. I’d be more comfortable taking him at his ADP.

Jamison Crowder had something of a down year in 2017, but he’s reportedly already establishing a solid connection with new quarterback Alex Smith. A strong candidate to lead his team in targets, I like Crowder at his ECR, and his ADP seems a little on the low side.

D.J. Moore and Anthony Miller are rare cases, in that it’s uncommon for the experts to be higher on rookie receivers than drafters. Moore has a remarkable athletic profile, has produced some highlights early in camp, and looked good in the preseason opener, leading the team with six targets and snaring four receptions for 75 yards, before being held without a catch in his second exhibition contest. While the Panthers’ pass-catching group is crowded, his upside is too tantalizing to pass on. I’m with the ECR on this one.

And Miller? Well, Miller did this. Not bad, rook. In all seriousness, the enthusiasm about his upside in a much-ballyhooed Bears offense has been discussed in great detail. If new head coach Matt Nagy can get Mitchell Trubisky on track, Miller could be a prime beneficiary.

Here’s what we know: Keenan Allen is the Chargers’ best receiver. Here’s what we don’t know: pretty much everything else. Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams will slot in behind Allen in the pecking order, but which Willams will emerge as the team’s number two wideout? It’s hard to say. Tyrell has accumulated 1,787 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns over his last two seasons, but Mike was the seventh overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft, so the franchise is heavily invested in his success.

Our experts are more optimistic about both Williams than drafters, as there’s a considerable disparity between both of their ECRs and ADPs. Hunter Henry is out for the season, and Antonio Gates hasn’t re-signed with the team yet, as many expected he would. That leaves 115 available targets for the Williams’ (and Travis Benjamin, Melvin Gordon, and Austin Ekeler) to absorb.

The experts are higher on Jaguars receivers too. Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook are both ranked considerably higher in our ECR, but you can’t blame drafters for avoiding the situation. Every day, it’s a different report out of Jags camp. One day, Cole is listed as a starter. Then Westbrook gets talked up. Then rookie D.J. Chark starts getting positive reviews. And that’s not even mentioning Marqise Lee and Donte Moncrief. I like these players a lot, but this is shaping up to be a situation to avoid until further notice.

ESPN ADP Likes Him More

 
Jarvis Landry’s outlook with the Browns keeps getting better and better. While his WR19 ADP is likely inflated a bit by the inclusion of PPR leagues, I don’t necessarily think it’s a bad spot for him in any format. Landry was the WR14 in standard leagues in 2017, and he’s the easy favorite to lead the Browns in targets and receptions. Quarterbacks Taylor and Mayfield are more than capable of helping Landry reach his fantasy potential in 2018.

Kelvin Benjamin is a tough one to project. While he has seemingly locked up the number one wideout role, the Bills offense is expected to struggle in 2018. A.J. McCarron’s broken collarbone all but assures that raw rookie Josh Allen will be under center in Week 1 and furthermore, Benjamin’s recurring knee issues have seemingly flared up as well. Wide receiver is deep this year, and it’s hard to invest in a player with so many question marks as your WR3.

Interestingly enough, ESPN drafters are higher than our experts on Falcons receivers Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley. This offense will still run through Julio Jones, but keep an eye on how the reps are distributed throughout the rest of the preseason. Sanu has been a solid performer in years past, but Ridley wasn’t drafted to stand on the sidelines, and the rookie impressed with a 3-49-1 line in Week 2 of the preseason.

Paul Richardson is coming off the best season of his career and has a shiny new five-year, $40 million contract to boot. A true burner, his outlook depends largely on whether Washington quarterback Alex Smith continues displaying the aggressiveness he unveiled with last season. However, Richardson will be competing with Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, and Chris “Slick Hands” Thompson for targets, so I tend to side with the experts on this one.

The influence of Tom Brady looms large over the ADPs of Eric Decker and Danny Amendola. Decker, the newest Patriot, is being selected 25 slots above his ECR even though he’s struggling with his new team. That’s what a chance to catch passes from “Tom Terrific” can do to your fantasy value.

Meanwhile, Amendola (another former Brady favorite) has reportedly been impressive in Dolphins camp so far and could be very valuable as the team’s slot receiver. I don’t need to tell you how productive the aforementioned Landry was in that role over the first four seasons of his career. With DeVante Parker sidelined until the regular season, Amendola has a chance to be an integral part of this offense from the get-go.

James Washington was taken in the third round by a Pittsburgh Steelers team that drafts and develops wideouts better than any other franchise. Now, he’s on the heels of a five-catch, 114-yard, two-touchdown preseason performance. This ADP is almost sure to improve after such an impressive showing and Washington has a legitimate shot to absorb Martavis Bryant’s old role in the Steelers’ offense. That makes him fantasy relevant, even in a crowded group of pass catchers.

Tight End (+/-4)

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George Kittle was one of 2018’s top tight end sleepers, but a shoulder injury is expected to sideline him for much of the preseason. As such, his ADP is slipping a bit, but our experts haven’t lost confidence in him. Kittle has a strong connection with Jimmy Garoppolo and a ridiculously impressive athletic profile working in his favor. I still think he has breakout potential

Brate was talked about in detail in the CBS ADP column, and the same principles apply here. Tight end is a dart throw position this year, and I’m more inclined to invest in high-upside options in the later rounds. It seems like drafters agree with me on the issue.

Speaking of upside, Ricky Seals-Jones flashed big-time potential in a limited role a season ago and had been talked up this offseason as a potential breakout candidate. With his recent run-in with the law unlikely to produce any league-mandated penalty, he is an intriguing option in 2018. Of course, a lot of his success is contingent upon cultivating a connection with quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen.

ESPN ADP Likes Him More

 
Fantasy players aren’t giving up on Jared Cook yet. The veteran is going off the boards as the TE14 in ESPN drafts, but is ranked as the TE19 by our experts. Cook only found the end zone twice a season ago, but still ranked ninth in targets and seventh in receiving yards among all tight ends. If the Raiders’ offense can improve its efficiency in the red zone, last year’s TE15 could be a sneaky value pick this time around.

• Expert Consensus Rankings vs. Yahoo ADP
• Expert Consensus Rankings vs. CBS ADP

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David McCaffery is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive or follow him @mccaffmedia.