Last-minute drafters must separate reality from nonsense to successfully leverage their diligent research. Preseason results, injures, and coaching platitudes have moved the ADP needle on several players. While hype has deceived the best of us, it can also help unearth a truth others will discover too late.

August has especially proven helpful in revealing teams’ backfield plans. A few running backs should keep trending upward, even if one of them isn’t the current starter. Before examining those developments, let’s first play “fact or fiction” on a more general draft tactic that has seemingly become a mandate.

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Drafters Should Never Select a QB Early
There’s no quicker path to public shaming than drafting a quarterback early. The position is deep and just about everyone knows it, which often leads to Philip Rivers falling to the 10th round or later. It’s simple supply and demand.

It’s also dangerous to adapt as a catch-all rule. As with every other strategy, this principle depends significantly on the particular league. Don’t be so shy to select a premier passer in two-quarterback formats or leagues that award six points for a passing touchdown. They’re far from interchangeable commodities in those settings.

There’s also a weird dichotomy at play. Fantasy pundits treat waiting on quarterback as a standard practice, but they are still trying to convince the casual drafters who have vaulted Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson to consensus ADPs of 24 and 37, respectively. In such a league where quarterbacks are going aggressively, waiting until the ninth or 10th round could instead mean settling for Jared Goff or Patrick Mahomes. That doesn’t mean drafters should oblige by a premature quarterback run, but they may have to jump a round or two earlier than planned for Rivers (or their preferred late QB1 target).

Meanwhile, in spots such as best ball drafts where the entire room prioritizes other positions, it’s often possible to snag Russell Wilson or Cam Newton in the seventh. I know because I’ve done it a few times despite plans to wait for the Rivers/Ben Roethlisberger/Matt Ryan tier. Sometimes it pays to deviate from a new norm, so don’t blindly sign a pre-draft vow to wait on quarterbacks.

Verdict: Fiction

Christian McCaffrey is an RB1
We all laughed last month when Ron Rivera said he’d like to give McCaffrey 25 to 30 touches per game. Unless he goes back to Stanford, that’s not a realistic goal for any NFL running back not named Le’Veon Bell, especially not one who averaged 7.3 carries per game and 3.7 yards per rush on a team that upgraded from Jonathan Stewart to the sturdy C.J. Anderson as a backup.

Instead of scoffing at Rivera’s hyperbolic estimation, perhaps we should have given more merit to the head coach’s desire to make McCaffrey his featured back. The 22-year-old has played the overwhelming majority of Carolina’s preseason snaps with the starters. After receiving double-digit carries in just three rookie games, he fielded a dozen handoffs in Week 3’s dress rehearsal. He has looked far more comfortable running in between the tackles and bouncing off contact. Let’s not forget this is someone who submitted 2,019 rushing yards in his sophomore season as Stanford’s bell-cow back.

Drafters are buying the buzz, as McCaffrey now carries an RB11 ADP in all formats. He was already PPR’s RB10, as he essentially performed like a mislabeled receiver last year, so buy him as a veritable leading fantasy back this season.

Verdict: Fact

Devontae Booker Will Stick as Denver’s Starting RB
Royce Freeman’s draft stock has ballooned with three touchdowns in as many preseason games. Booker, however, has played more snaps with Case Keenum and remains listed as Denver’s starting running back.

Broncos coach Vance Joseph said he plans on sitting 22 players in their preseason finale, but Freeman is slated to play. Despite the rookie’s torrid August, Booker – who has taken nine carries for 33 yards – looks on track to open 2018 as the timeshare’s starter.

Don’t panic and shove Freeman down the draft board. Booker has averaged 3.6 yards per carry in two seasons. He took just one of 253 career runs 20 yards or more. He’s not very good, and Freeman is a physical, elusive back who could easily hit or exceed Anderson’s 1,007 rushing yards and seven touchdowns if given the same volume (245 carries). Even if he must share some snaps, the neophyte should keep hoarding the red-zone rushes. He’ll hold the leading role at the end of September, if not Week 1.

Verdict: Fiction

Jamaal Williams Is “Poised to Have a Big Year”
Those words are straight from Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, who gave Williams high praise when he talked to ESPN.com’s Rob Demovsky. “Clearly without playing a game yet, I think we’ll be talking about him at the end of the season as a second-year player that’s made the jump,” McCarthy said.

Drafters (myself included) have hedged their bets between Williams and Aaron Jones. Either second-year back could mount an RB1 campaign if given the opportunity. They both shined when handling the lead role last year, and that was without Aaron Rodgers steering the offense.

Although Jones averaged 5.5 yards per carry to Williams’s 3.5, the latter ranked 12th in DVOA and 14th in success rate among 47 qualified rushers. He was also the RB9 from Week 9 onward, a stretch in which he compiled 20.3 touches per contest. He’ll even get a two-game jump on the suspended Jones. McCarthy is offering clarity to one of the summer’s most significant starter battles, so drafters would be wise to listen and bump Williams up their draft boards.

Verdict: Fact

Keelan Cole is Now Jacksonville’s Top WR
Marqise Lee was a superb value pick poised to receive plenty of targets as Jacksonville’s top wide receiver. Before he could realize that potential, the 26-year-old suffered a season-ending knee injury on a hit from Atlanta safety Damontae Kazee.

Before Lee’s injury, drafters wavered over who warranted a dart throw as the Jaguars’ second wideout. While they’re still torn, the experts are firmly on Cole’s side.

Given plenty of opportunities to flourish as a rookie, Westbrook secured just 27 of 51 targets for 339 yards and a touchdown in seven games. As everyone gushed over his lofty ceiling, Cole instead burst on the scene with 475 yards and three touchdowns in the final five bouts. Westbrook would probably be going as a top-30 wideout if he did that.

Let’s not forget about Donte Moncrief. The group’s de facto veteran signed a one-year deal following a lost 2017 without Andrew Luck that ended early because of an ankle sprain. The tallest target of the trio (6’2″) scored seven touchdowns in nine 2016 games and led the group in snaps after Lee’s Week 3 preseason departure. Then again, he floundered as Indianapolis’s No. 2 receiver without Luck last year.

While Westbrook still possesses a considerable ceiling, we’ve already seen Cole display his upside. Moncrief may outperform his low cost with volume and red-zone activity, but he’s probably an unreliable matchup play at best. Cole, now my WR45, is my undisputed preference while the others remain end-of-draft lottery tickets.

Verdict: Fact

2018 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid

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