FantasyBeast15 breaks down value plays for Saturday’s slate of FanDuel MLB contests.
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Here’s a look at the top value plays for Saturday on FanDuel. I will do my best to keep the top plays as cheap as possible but will include higher-priced players if their projections far exceed their salary-based expectation.
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Pitcher
Freddy Peralta (MIL): $7,400 vs. COL
Peralta will face the Rockies in Miller Park. Although Miller Park is a hitters park, the Rockies take a big park hit traveling to Milwaukee. The Rockies have a team run total of four, with a lean toward the under. They strike out 22.8% of the time, tenth highest rate in the league. That number jumps to 24% away from Coors Field. The Rockies also have a wRC+ in the bottom five of the league. Peralta has an elite 32.8% strikeout rate, so at $7,400, he’s my preferred value pitcher today.
Catcher/First Base
Justin Bour (MIA): $2,700 vs. PHI
Bour will face Zach Eflin in Citizens Bank Park. Bour will have the platoon advantage, and Eflin has allowed a .374 wOBA to lefties this season. Even though Eflin has limited opponents to a 1.17 HR/9 this season, it’s partially due to a 10.9 HR/FB rate. Eflin projects to allow closer to a 1.50 HR/9 so slight regression to the mean is likely. Bour has a top three home run projection today and costs just $2,700.
Second Base
Logan Forsythe (MIN): $2,000 vs. KCR
The Twins received Forsythe as part of the Brian Dozier trade and he’s projected to bat fifth. He’ll face Burch Smith who owns a career 6.18 ERA. While Smith has a much better SIERA throughout his career, the Twins can still take advantage of an average to below average pitcher. The Twins have a team run total of five today with a lean toward the over, so Vegas expects scoring as well. Batting in the heart of the order, you could do worst than Forsythe at minimum price.
Third Base
Miguel Sano (MIN): $2,600 vs. KCR
Sano will also face Smith in Target Field. With extreme power, Sano is your prototypical boom/bust tournament selection. He strikes out 35-40% of the time but has huge power upside. If Sano bats higher than seventh, he’ll enter the cash game conversation for me, but if he’s buried near the bottom of the order, he’s a high-upside tournament only play. Only three third baseman have a higher home run projection than Sano today, and all three cost at least $1,300 more.
Shortstop
Jorge Polanco (MIN): $2,800 vs. KCR
We have another Twin value play with Polanco at $2,800. Honestly, I could have included Logan Morrison at first base and had a full Twins stack. I will certainly have Twins stacks in tournaments and will fill most of my other tournaments stacks with Twins value bats. I don’t really feel the need to pick on Smith, but at these prices, it’s hard to pass up the value. Polanco will own the platoon advantage against Smith and should bat third. At a position typically starved for value, I’m intrigued by Polanco who projects for around 11 FanDuel points today.
Outfield
Joey Gallo (TEX): $3,000 vs. BAL
Much like Sano, Gallo is a home run or bust play on most slates. Gallo has 28 home runs this season while maintaining a batting average under .200. While strikeouts are always in play with Gallo, it seems like a perfect storm for power. Gallo will own the platoon advantage against Dylan Bundy. It will approach 100 degrees in Globe Life Park today, and Bundy has allowed 2.03 HR/9 this season. Only four players have a higher home run projection than Gallo today, and three of those players seem to have their projection bolstered by the Wrigley Field wind.
