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Fantasy Baseball Depth Chart Review: Week 17

Fantasy Baseball Depth Chart Review: Week 17

Welcome to the Depth Chart Review! We had an active trade deadline, and I’m going to try and break down some of the biggest trades from the deadline and how they impact fantasy baseball. This article is going to focus on the deals that change fantasy value the most. There are a few deals, such as Brian Dozier to the Dodgers and Wilson Ramos to the Phillies, that are big for real-life baseball but don’t affect the player’s fantasy value too much.

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Archer Headed to Pittsburgh for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow

The biggest trade of the day was between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, as Chris Archer is headed to the steel city in exchange for top prospects Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow and a player to be named later. This is an important move on both ends, as all named players involved will experience changes in fantasy value. Archer is the biggest piece in the deal and is already owned in every league, but this move positively impacts his value. Archer’s biggest problem over the past few seasons has been the long ball, and a move out of the American League East should help curb this issue. His home ballpark in Tampa Bay is great for suppressing home runs, but every other park in that division is hitter-friendly. With Tampa this season Archer had a 2.83 FIP and 0.69 HR/9 at Tropicana Field but a 4.16 FIP and 1.26 HR/9 on the road. PNC Park is also a great pitcher’s park, about equal to Tropicana Field, but the league and division are easier. Think of it this way, the league ERA in the AL is 4.23, while the league ERA in the NL is 4.07. In NL-only leagues Archer is the prize on which the majority of FAAB should be spent. In NL-Only leagues FAAB bidding should be between Archer and Brian Dozier, with Jonathan Schoop and Mike Moustakas right behind them, and priority depends on team need. All of these players will demand huge bids, and it’s a good idea to put in multiple claims for all of them.

Tampa Bay acquired two very interesting young players for Archer in Meadows and Glasnow. Both Meadows and Glasnow graduated prospect status, but in 2016 they were both ranked as top 10 prospects by MLB Pipeline, with Glasnow eighth and Meadows ninth. They have both seen their star fade a bit since then, but each player still possesses enough talent to make a big league impact at some point in their career. Meadows performed well in limited playing time for Pittsburgh this season, with a .292 AVG and .795 OPS in 165 PA. His numbers are heavily inflated by his performance upon first arriving to the big leagues in May. Meadows hit .409 with a 1.221 OPS in 44 PA in May, but his performance began steadily declining after that. He hit .212 in July before being sent back to the minors on July 15. Part of the problem with Meadows is that he has yet to deliver on his perceived talent with consistent production. He flashed meager power at Triple-A with a .109 ISO in 2017 and a .115 ISO in 2018. He was hitting .279 at Triple-A this season, but a poor walk rate and lackluster power gave him a .712 OPS. He was 11-for-12 in steal attempts in the minors, but only 4-for-5 in the majors. The Rays have 94 stolen bases attempts as a team compared to 72 for the Pirates, so perhaps the Rays will allow him to run more on the basepaths. It’s not clear whether Meadows will get regular playing time either. It is likely between Meadows and Mallex Smith for the left field job, and Smith has hit well this season with a .282 AVG and .347 OBP, but Smith doesn’t have much power with just a .111 ISO. The Rays could use a rotation between those two and newly acquired outfielder Tommy Pham in the corner outfield positions eventually, but Meadows will start his tenure with the Ray’s in the minors so as to gain everyday at-bats.

Glasnow is quite an interesting case since he was considered the best pitching prospect in the game by some two years ago, but nightmarish control issues have impeded his progress towards major league success. Glasnow utterly dominated Triple-A last season with a 1.93 ERA and 13.5 K/9 but had a 7.69 ERA and 6.39 BB/9 in the majors as a starter. This put him in an odd limbo because Glasnow was clearly too good for the minors, but not good enough for the majors. The Pirates responded by putting him in the bullpen, where he has a 4.34 ERA but 3.62 FIP in 56 innings. His walk rate is still atrocious at 14%, but he can get away with it in the bullpen because of a 29.6% strikeout rate and 0.8 HR/9. He can be decent out of the bullpen, but a 14% walk rate is untenable for a starting pitcher. A similar case to Glasnow would be current Rays starter, Blake Snell. Snell was a highly regarded lefty with control issues, but once his control improved Snell blossomed into an ace. Glasnow’s problems are worse than Snell’s, and that type of transformation seems far away. The Rays could use Glasnow in a long relief/swingman role, much like Ryan Yarborough. Allow one of their openers like Ryan Stanek or Hunter Wood to begin the game, then bring in Glasnow for a few innings. He’s an interesting speculative add in deeper leagues or AL-only leagues, but Glasnow is a work in progress right now.

Brewers Acquire Jonathan Schoop and Mike Moustakas, Crowding Already Crowded Situation.

On Saturday the Brewers acquired third baseman Mike Moustakas from the Royals in exchange for Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez. The idea was that they’d move Travis Shaw to second base in order to fit Moustakas into the lineup. Well, that plan only lasted a few days, because in the eleventh hour of the trade deadline the Brewers got Jonathan Schoop from the Orioles for Jonathan Villar and a pair of prospects. The plan is to keep Orlando Arcia‘s glove at shortstop and rotate between Schoop, Shaw, and Moustakas on any given night. It would seem logical that Schoop will always play against lefties, but everything else is up in the air. The Brewers already have something of a rotation between left field and first base between Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, and Eric Thames, meaning this may be one of the tougher lineups to predict on any given night.

After a brutal June where Schoop hit .144 in 106 PA, he has been on fire this July. This month Schoop has a .360 AVG and 1.056 OPS along with nine of his 17 home runs. From a park factors perspective, this is a lateral move. Both Camden Yards and Miller Park grade as above average for right-handed power per Baseball Prospectus park factors. The playing time is concerning. In most situations, Schoop would be an unquestioned starter, but since the Brewers have a logjam between second base and third base Schoop will not get to play every day. In a perfect split he’d play two-thirds of the time, as would Moustakas and Shaw, but since Schoop is a natural second baseman he may have an edge in playing time at the keystone. Schoop has 19 career innings at shortstop, so it seems unlikely he’d see time there, but the Brewers have been willing to move Ryan Braun to first base and Travis Shaw to second base, so they aren’t afraid to think outside the box.

Moustakas is getting a major park upgrade from Kauffman Stadium to Miller Park. Kauffman Stadium has a home run factor of 82 (average is 100) for left-handed batters, meaning that being a left-hander in Kauffman Stadium is the second worst situation to be in for a power hitter. Only righties in Marlins Park have a lower home run factor at 78. Miller Park has a 106 home run factor, representing a huge shift. For the first time in his career, Moustakas will play his home games in a ballpark that is conducive to his hitting style. Moustakas has managed a .236 ISO over the past three seasons in Kansas City, so it will be interesting to see what he can do in Milwaukee. Playing time may be a concern for Moustakas going forward, since he and Travis Shaw are incredibly similar players in many ways. Both are left-handed natural third basemen with good power. Shaw has the edge over Moustakas with a higher ISO (.225 vs. .212) and wOBA (.352 vs. .325), but the two are practically redundant in Milwaukee. Moustakas could see time at second base too, but that doesn’t solve the two players for one spot conundrum Brewers general manager David Stearns has created. This is going to be a survival of the fittest in Milwaukee, whoever hits will play, and that includes the first base/left situation. Brewers players are much more valuable in daily lineup leagues going forward.

Villar is the only piece going to Baltimore that may have a fantasy impact this season, but he is currently on the disabled list with a thumb sprain. When he’s played Villar hasn’t been very good, owning a .261 AVG and .693 OPS in 279 PA. The peripherals are even worse, as Villar has a .220 xBA and a -2.7 average launch angle. Speedsters like Villar should want to hit grounders, but a 63% groundball rate is excessive even for someone with this skill profile. He is 14-for-16 on the basepaths and should slot in as Baltimore’s second baseman when healthy, so in deeper leagues, Villar should provide speed. This is an overall value boost to Villar because there was no way he’d see regular playing time in Milwaukee, but he can at least collect plate appearances on a rebuilding team like the Orioles.

Kevin Gausman, Darren O’Day Traded to Atlanta

The Orioles have been one of the most active sellers on the market this season, and that included a trade of starter Kevin Gausman and reliever Darren O’Day to the Braves for four prospects. None of the prospects will have redraft value this season, so we will focus on the major league implications of this trade. O’Day is currently on the 60-day disabled list and recently underwent hamstring surgery, so he may not even pitch for Atlanta this season. Even if he does, he’ll serve in a setup role and have no fantasy value outside of holds leagues.

Gausman is the most important piece of the deal as he will slide into Atlanta’s starting rotation. It’s unclear who will be bumped in favor of Gausman, but young lefty Max Fried seems most likely to be squeezed. Fried has shown flashes of brilliance this season, highlighted by an 11-strikeout game against the Cardinals, but inexperience and command issues will probably land him in the bullpen or minor leagues. Fried has an 11.22 K/9, but a 5.61 BB/9 makes him tough to trust for a contending team like the Braves. A more pragmatic decision would be to remove Julio Teheran from the rotation. Teheran has been a mainstay in Atlanta’s rotation since he was 22 years old, but his performance has deteriorated over the past two seasons. He has a 4.46 ERA and 5.33 FIP in 115 innings this season, along with a stomach-churning 1.64 HR/9 and career-high 11.8% walk rate. It seems unlikely that Teheran would be removed from the rotation based on his history with the team, but it’s probably the best move for the club at this point.

Atlanta is a great spot for Gausman, who desperately needed to get out of Baltimore and the AL East. His home run issues are exacerbated by the division and home ballpark where he pitched. His 4.43 ERA and 4.58 FIP don’t look like much, but there is more to Gausman than results and even predictive ERA metrics. That is because the key to success with Gausman has always been one thing, and that is his splitter. Gausman possesses one of baseball’s best strikeout pitches in his split-changeup. That is why Gausman’s overall numbers don’t do him justice. In 2017 he had a 4.68 ERA at the end of the year, but his production was incredibly uneven. He had a 5.85 ERA in the first half before going on a second-half tear, pitching to a 3.41 ERA and 9.64 K/9 after the All-Star break. That improved performance coincided with increased splitter usage, and splitter usage has typically been tied to success for Gausman in the past. Here is a table from last season outlining Gausman’s splitter usage as it relates to his performance.

Month Splitter % FIP K/BB
April 14.58% 6.22 1.18
May 13.79% 4.56 2.20
June 20.31% 4.81 1.79
July 27.46% 3.47 4.09
August 22.87% 5.35 2.25
September/October 23.13% 2.90 4.88

 
Splitter usage and performance have some correlation, although month-by-month can lead to sample size issues, especially since August is an outlier. Still, the pitch is a known weapon and has dominated batters both in previous seasons and 2018. Batters are hitting .179 with a .152 ISO and 21.6% whiff rate against the splitter this season. Gausman is throwing it 22% of the time, the highest usage of his career. The problem is that his fastball is getting crushed. He has lost velocity and is only throwing it with an average of 93.7 MPH compared to 95 MPH last season. Batters are also hitting .336 with a .207 ISO against the pitch. Hopefully, the move to pitcher-friendly SunTrust Park helps limit the power against the pitch. His 16.7% HR/FB ratio should drop with the park switch, even if his fastball is getting crushed. This is a good move for Gausman, not many places are worse than Baltimore to be a pitcher right now. But he needs to take a lesson from Masahiro Tanaka and lead with his splitter instead of fastball. Home runs will always be an issue for him, but the park and league shift should help him. In standard league’s Gausman’s streaming appeal goes up, and in an NL-only league, he makes a fine consolation prize to Chris Archer.

Cardinals Send Pham to Tampa Bay, Promote Tyler O’Neill

In the surprise move of the day, the Cardinals shipped outfielder Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay in exchange for three prospects. The prospects likely won’t have a major league impact this season, so I’m going to focus on the big league implications in Tampa Bay and St. Louis. On the surface, this is a curious move for the Rays since they were clearly sellers at the deadline as they subtracted big pieces such as Chris Archer, Nathan Eovaldi, and Wilson Ramos. Pham is controllable via arbitration through 2021 so the Rays picked up a piece for the future, even if it’s a 30-year-old major leaguer. Pham has been somewhat disappointing after a breakout 2017 season, hitting .248 with a .730 OPS in 396 PA with the Cardinals. Pham’s power is way down this season. He has just a .151 ISO this year after never posting an ISO below .209 in seasons past. The good news is that Pham is still crushing the ball. He has a 92.7 MPH average exit velocity, putting him in the top 5% of the league. Pham’s .279 xBA and .498 xSLG are both higher than they were last season. Pham’s baserunning has been less successful. He was 25-for-32 (78%) on steal attempts in 2017 but he’s just 6-for-10 this year. His sprint speed hasn’t changed from this year to last, so perhaps he ran into some bad luck on the basepaths. The Rays also run much more than the Cardinals, having attempted 94 steals compared to 62 by the Cardinals, so Pham may be given more leeway to run in Tampa Bay. The home run factor for righties is practically identical in Busch Stadium (88) and Tropicana Field (87), so the park shift is lateral. Pham is a good player to buy low on, and since so much of the top talent went from the AL to the NL Pham is one of the better FAAB targets in AL-only leagues.

This move also shakes things up in the Cardinals’ outfield. They immediately promoted slugging outfield prospect Tyler O’Neill, who started in center field on Tuesday. O’Neill was clobbering the ball at Triple-A, smacking 26 home runs with a .400 ISO and 1.100 OPS in 260 PA. These numbers should be taken with a grain of salt since they came in the Pacific Coast League, which is notoriously hitter-friendly. Still, O’Neill’s displayed prodigious power at all levels of the minors and can make an impact this season. He had a cup of coffee earlier this year and hit three homers with a .227 ISO in 47 PA, but also had a 20-1 K/BB ratio. O’Neill will compete with Harrison Bader for playing time, and Bader certainly has the edge defensively. Bader has 15 DRS and 5.4 UZR this season between all three outfield spots and has excelled in both right field and center field. Bader’s bat leaves a little to be desired, as he has a .265 AVG and .738 OPS, but his batting average is boosted by an unsustainable .368 BABIP. With a 29% strikeout rate and .212 xBA it would be easy to see Bader’s average drop. Veteran Dexter Fowler could end up being the odd man out, as he has experienced a sharp decline in production this season. In 321 PA Fowler is hitting .179 with a .575 OPS and .122 ISO, which has been good for -1.2 fWAR. Fowler’s meager .210 xBA and 85.1 MPH average exit velocity leave little hope for a turnaround, and the only reason Fowler will play is because he is owed over $50 million dollars on a contract that doesn’t expire until 2021. Even with his bloated salary, Fowler has been so bad the Cardinals may have no choice but to bench him. Out of these three players, O’Neill has the biggest fantasy value, both in the present and the future.

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 Elliott Baas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Elliott, check out his archive and follow him @elliottbaasbb.

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