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Fantasy Baseball Middle Reliever Targets: Week 20

Fantasy Baseball Middle Reliever Targets: Week 20

From the Red Sox to White Sox, useful middle relievers materialize from bullpens of contenders and pretenders. This week’s roundup runs the gamut from a prestigious prospect, a former starter returning from Tommy John surgery, and a 30-year-old who pitched in Japan last year. Despite their widely contrasting backgrounds, they can all help in holds formats.

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Trevor May (MIN): 1 Percent Owned
I’m not saying I’m the reason Fernando Rodney got traded last week, but it happened right after I cut Trevor Hildenberger in a deep dynasty league. With the ninth inning vacated, he picked up Minnesota’s last three saves despite also relinquishing nine runs in eight August outings. While he’s the closer for now, this is far from an open-and-shut case.

Some onlookers initially thought Addison Reed‘s late-inning experience would make him next in line, but the setup man has posted a 4.74 ERA and career-low 20.2 strikeout percentage. Taylor Rogers, highlighted here last week, should remain a left-handed specialist who could possibly vulture a save or two if those lefties happen to pop up during the final frame.

The real wild card? Trevor May. Some readers may be rummaging through their memories to place the familiar name. After permanently moving to the bullpen in 2016, the former starter underwent Tommy John surgery last March to repair his UCL. It’s easy to discard someone with a career 5.07 ERA, but he also wields a 3.63 FIP with 221 strikeouts and 65 walks in 207.2 innings.

He has looked better than ever since returning on July 31. Through five outings May have amassed seven strikeouts to no walks and one run. He has already generated 16 whiffs in 72 pitches. Needing little time to reclaim his team’s trust, the 28-year-old righty recorded his third hold by tossing a spotless eighth on Saturday. (Hildenberger then picked up the save despite yielding two runs.) Although Minnesota should continue to ease him back into action by avoiding appearances in back-to-back days, May is already an impact middle reliever who could garner save opportunities in September.

Jace Fry (CHW): 3 Percent Owned
Luis Avilan (CHW): 0 Percent Owned
The White Sox’s ninth-inning replacement for Joakim Soria is … nobody? Four different relievers (Luis Avilan, Hector Santiago, Thyago Vieira, and most recently Xavier Cedeno) have each accrued a save. Adding Jace Fry, five active relievers have cemented a save, yet Avilan became the first to tally more than one this season. It’s safe to avoid the situation altogether in a shallow five-by-five league.

Those playing with holds, however, may want to take a deeper look at a bullpen that has generated the sixth-highest strikeout rate (25.1 %) after the All-Star break despite a 5.62 ERA. Those trends are embodied by Fry, who has combined five runs with 15 second-half punchouts over eight innings. The 25-year-old southpaw has struck out 13 of his last 20 batters faced. Although the 4.34 ERA is ugly, a 34.0 strikeout percentage, .167 opposing batting average, 0.99 WHIP, and 2.27 FIP all make him the most likely candidate to eventually handle the ninth-inning duties. If not, his dozen holds still leads the club.

Next in line with eight holds is Avilan, who has a far higher WHIP (1.38) but a lower ERA (3.47) still above a 2.72 FIP. The 29-year-old lefty has allowed two runs in 12 innings since the start of July, accumulating 15 strikeouts and two walks in the process. Edubray Ramos is the only reliever with at least 30 innings pitched to holster a lower hard-hit rate than Avilan’s 19.4 percent. Yet he also carries a .354 BABIP well above his .285 career clip.

Avilan is likely not strong enough against righties to permanently handle the closer’s role. After going unnoticed in a crowded Dodgers’ bullpen, he still has a golden chance to at least shine as a prominent late-inning option. He’s a deep-league add while Fry pushes for mainstream notoriety.

Ryan Brasier (BOS): 0 Percent Owned
The Red Sox looked like an obvious candidate to bolster their bullpen with a high-leverage acquisition such as Kirby Yates. They didn’t. Perhaps it was an endorsement of setup men Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree. Maybe they’re confident in Tyler Thornburg providing an in-house boost.

It’s highly unlikely they put their faith in Ryan Brasier, a 30-year-old who hadn’t appeared in the majors since working nine innings for the Angels in 2013. After spending 2016 with Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate, he posted a 3.00 ERA last year … in Japan. Signed by Boston to a minor league contract, he boasted a 1.34 ERA in Triple-A before completing his arduous journey back to the majors.

The Red Sox may have caught lightning in a bottle. Brasier has allowed eight hits and two runs in 16 innings with 15 strikeouts. His .195 BABIP won’t last, but a 16.4 swinging-strike percentage and 72.1 first-pitch strike rate offer more encouragement. He’s also throwing harder than five years ago with a fastball clocking in at an average velocity of 96.9 mph. While most fantasy managers can keep him on the watch list for now, he’s certainly a compelling success story to monitor.

Dakota Hudson (STL): 5 Percent Owned
Based on his five-percent ownership rate, it might already be too late to grab Dakota Hudson in holds formats. If so, don’t sweat it. I’d much rather add May or Fry anyway.

Gamers are reacting more to pedigree than results. St. Louis promoted 2016’s No. 34 pick to replace Greg Holland in the bullpen. Having touted a 2.50 ERA in Triple-A, he’s at least more polished than Jordan Hicks when he made the same move from starter to reliever. Yet the 23-year-old notched an uninspiring 87 strikeouts and 38 walks in 111.2 frames.

He’s repeating the same pattern in St. Louis. Although his debut is a rousing success in terms of his 0.87 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, it comes with six strikeouts, four walks, and a .143 BABIP. On the bright side, he also brandishes a healthy 11.9-percent swinging strike rate that should lead to more punchouts. His cutter has already induced nine whiffs (and no hits) in 34 tries. Quickly entrusted with high-leverage opportunities, Hudson could start earning his success down the stretch.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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