The MLB trade deadline has come and gone and it was a relatively significant one. Most contenders bolstered their starting lineups or added depth, while those out of contention gutted their starting rosters for the chance at a brighter future.
If you’re in a dynasty league, you may be doing the same right now. But for those in redraft leagues, those prospect deals aren’t happening. Instead, we’re relegated to trying to find mutually beneficial deals that work for both sides in the immediate future, while making our final push for the championship.
For many of you, this week represents your last shot at making that one deal that could change your fantasy fortunes. So before you pull the trigger, make sure to check out our trade chart for Week 18.
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Trade Deadline Movers
Since we’re presented with the opportunity, let’s talk about some of those who saw their value change with the trade deadline.
If you had any doubts that Cole Hamels would see his value rise with his trade to the Cubs, Wednesday’s stellar outing against the Pirates should have put them to rest. Hamels was abysmal in Texas this year (6.41 ERA and 1.51 WHIP) and excellent on the road (2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP). Although his underlying metrics suggested his road numbers were a bit lucky, moving from the American League to the National League should even that out. To the extent the buy-low window is still a smidge open, go ahead and slip through it.
Chris Archer gets the similar American League to National League boost with his move to the Pirates, but his should be even more pronounced. Archer has long struggled against his AL East opponents, particularly on the road, and any move out of that division is an instant jump in value for the veteran. Expect his overall numbers (4.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 9.56 strikeouts per nine innings) to improve significantly with the move.
Other pitchers seeing their values rise after the trade deadline include Kevin Gausman, Ken Giles, Roberto Osuna, and Kirby Yates. Like Archer, Gausman gets the benefit of moving out of the AL East to the National League, as the Braves make their push for the playoffs. Gausman has been . . . well, Gausman-y this year, with a 4.43 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, 7.55 K/9 versus a 4.22 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 8.21 K/9 career marks. But the only reason Gausman has been relevant in fantasy circles is because of his potential, so the move to the National League doesn’t suddenly transform him into a must-start player. But it does result in a minor bump in value.
As for the closers, Roberto Osuna gets a boost with his move to the Astros, as he’ll almost certainly close for one of the best teams in baseball, rather than a perpetually mediocre one. As for Giles, despite both his struggles in the majors (4.99 ERA) and the minors since his demotion (8.44 ERA), he’ll get the ninth inning role in Toronto as per John Gibbons. Giles’ FIP (2.28 in the majors, 1.89 in the minors) suggest he’s been extremely unlucky this year. Regardless, the fact that Giles was relegated to the minors and will now immediately become a closer is obviously a boost in value. As for Yates, well, he was supposed to be traded at the deadline like Brad Hand. But he wasn’t. And now he’ll close for the Padres all year. That’s all you need to know.
Finally, three hitters see their value change after trades: Brian Dozier, Jonathan Schoop, and Tommy Pham. Of these, Dozier is the only one who sees his value fall, and that’s largely because of Dave Roberts’ comments that Dozier may not be an everyday player going forward. Who knows if Roberts is simply being cautious to guard against Dozier not having one of his patented big second halves? But the bottom line is that the Dodgers have a bevy of excellent offensive players and Dozier hasn’t yet begun his usual hot streak. If he starts cold, he could easily lose playing time.
As for Schoop, his rise is more about his recent play than it is his trade to the Brewers. But he essentially makes a neutral move in park (and that’s an excellent thing) but moves to a stronger lineup. No, I don’t know what exactly is going to happen now that the Brewers have 17 players playing out of position. But you don’t make that trade for Schoop to have him sit on the bench. Both he and Travis Shaw, as well as Mike Moustakas, will likely find their way into the lineup most days, and I would not be concerned if I owned any of them.
As for Pham, well, that was a humdinger. No, I don’t get it from the Cardinals’ point of view. And no, it’s not a move to a better lineup necessarily or a better park. But it seems pretty clear that Pham needed a change of scenery. Pham’s value gets only the slightest of bumps, but I’d feel mildly better today than two days ago if I were an owner.
The Other Movers
We’ve seen our usual injuries to major fantasy players this week. Aaron Judge sustained a chip fracture of his wrist, and should hopefully be out only about three weeks. Frankly, I am still unsure if the Yankees’ statement that Judge should be able to swing a bat in a game situation in three weeks means they expect him back at that time or something else. But as a Judge owner, I’m going with he’ll be back in three weeks and that’s that! But his value obviously tumbles.
For now, Chris Sale’s injury sounds extremely minor, though anything concerning the shoulder is, well, concerning. But given the Red Sox’ big lead, it’s fair to assume that the team is just being overly cautious, particularly in light of how much Sale faded last season. Sale’s value takes a hit, but I wouldn’t necessarily shy away from buying if I could at a discount. Ditto with Jose Altuve, whose vague knee injury also does not seem serious.
Things are much worse for Carlos Martinez, who pitched brilliantly against the Rockies before feeling the effects of a shoulder injury, leaving the game, and nearly immediately going on the disabled list. Martinez expects to miss three or four starts but being realistic, it’s hard for any fantasy owners to expect much from Martinez going forward. He’s not without value, but tread carefully.
Finally, two pitchers see their values rise because of recent performance. The fantasy community has been desperate for Luis Castillo to become a fantasy stalwart, and he finally seems to be obliging. Castillo has allowed one, three, two, one, and zero earned runs in his past five starts, and has a 25:4 K:BB ratio over that span. His season-long numbers can’t be ignored, but he is one of the few players who could be a complete difference-maker down the stretch.
Similarly, Jon Gray has put up stellar numbers recently. Since he returned from Triple-A, he’s allowed just four runs over 21 2/3 innings in three starts. Gray’s ERA has hovered about two runs highers than his FIP this season, and things appear to finally be evening out. Relying on a starter who pitches half his games in Colorado is a dicey proposition, but Gray is starting to show that he is worth the risk.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.
