Next week will be Week 20 of the Fantasy Baseball season. Let that sink in for a moment. Week 20. In most formats, that means you’ve got about three weeks left to cement that first-round bye or make that last ditch run to the playoffs. Where has the season gone? By this time next Friday, we’ll be talking about roster expansion and September baseball – the only thing that wreaks more havoc on two-start projections than the poor weather on the East coast in April. Anyway, if this is truly the last seven days of sensible roster construct, it’s not a bad way of going out. We’ve got mid-tier two-start options galore and more than enough streamers to peruse. Let’s get into it.
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Don’t Think Twice
Gerrit Cole (8/20 @SEA, 8/26 @LAA)
Corey Kluber (8/20 @BOS, 8/25 @KC)
Rick Porcello (8/20 vs. CLE, 8/25 @TB)
Jose Berrios (8/20 vs. CWS, 8/25 vs. OAK)
Blake Snell (8/20 vs. KC, 8/25 vs. BOS)
Widely-Owned Options
Zack Wheeler (8/20 vs. SF, 8/26 vs. WAS)
Since June 17th, a span of 70.2 innings, Wheeler has pitched to a 2.55 ERA with a 2.79 FIP and owns a 26.0% strikeout rate on top of all that. Remember for a moment that there was talk the Mets were going to trade this man. Oh, how some teams must be kicking themselves now. Plus, in terms of matchups, only the Marlins have lower marks in wOBA and ISO than the Giants among National League squads in August. He’s more than trustworthy at this point.
Kyle Hendricks (8/21 @DET, 8/26 vs. CIN)
It’s not as if Hendricks has started pitching much better than the rut he found himself in during late June and early July, but, in anything larger than a 10-man format, he’s just average enough – with high win expectancy – where you’re going to play him. The man literally has four quality starts since May 30th. That’s a really low bar to clear. However, he does have a 28.8% strikeout rate across his last five outings. Considering his competition in Week 20, Hendricks doesn’t need to be Nolan Ryan to return value. Pitch well, win both contests, and don’t ruin anyone’s ratios. I have faith Hendricks can accomplish those simple tasks.
Carlos Rodon (8/21 vs. MIN, 8/26 @DET)
There are two ways to look at Rodon’s 2018 season so far. The pessimistic view is that he’s gotten lucky. His 2.69 ERA is almost a run-and-a-half better than his FIP; his BABIP is at an insane .210 figure; and he’s not striking out batters at near the same pace we’ve seen in the past – generally the way he derived fantasy value. Still, the optimist would point out that he’s pitched to a 1.41 ERA across his past six starts; he’s held opponents to a .208 wOBA; and he’s surrendered just a 22.1% hard contact rate. I’m not usually a man who looks at the world through rose-colored glasses, but when you get to face the dreck that is the American League Central, I’ll side on the “Carlos Rodon is alright” end of the ledger.
Julio Teheran (8/21 @PIT, 8/26 @MIA)
The Pirates do have the left-handed bats to make Teheran’s trip to Pittsburgh a bit of a nightmare, but how can you ignore these ballparks? For the fly ball oriented and home run prone starter, PNC Park and Marlins Park are two of the best possible destinations that exist in MLB. Plus, while, as mentioned, the Pirates can boast a .333 wOBA among their LHBs against RHPs in 2018, the Marlins have little talent, let alone lefty-specific talent, of which to speak – especially after shipping out Justin Bour. Despite the fact that the 27-year-old has somehow surrendered 16 earned runs to Miami through three outings this season, I’ll give him the seal of approval in Week 20. He’s due, right?
Alex Wood (8/20 vs. STL, 8/26 vs. SD)
I’ll begin this with the always present precursor that rarely does a Dodgers’ pitcher actually get their two-start week, but, with Wood the probable for the Monday start, he’s got as good a chance as any. It might not seem like he’s been as lights out as he’s truly pitched lately, a combination of wonky scheduling and injury, however, since June 22nd, Wood possesses a 2.52 ERA, a 50.3% groundball rate, and a 1.12 WHIP across 53.2 innings. Again, would I bet my life that Wood makes both these starts? Heck no. Yet, if he does get that second outing of the week, it’s against the Padres. That’s tempting.
Kevin Gausman (8/20 @PIT, 8/25 @MIA)
Look, it’s anyone’s guess as to which version of Gausman shows up on a given night, but, as with his aforementioned new teammate (Teheran), the ballparks are in his favor in Week 20. At Camden Yards this season, Gausman pitched to an unsavoury 4.70 FIP, allowing more that 1.6 home runs per nine. Well, PNC Park and Marlins Park aren’t quite Baltimore. Plus, a trip to Miami means getting to face the Marlins – who sport a .100 ISO and 61 wRC+ across their past 30 days. That’s indescribably awful.
Nathan Eovaldi (8/21 vs. CLE, 8/26 @TB)
I’m going with the larger sample, even if the start against Cleveland makes me incredibly nervous. Since June 26th, a run of over 50 innings, the former Ray has pitched to a 2.86 ERA and 2.90 FIP. That’s really, really good for someone who was little more than waiver wire fodder a month-and-a-half ago. In fact, Eovaldi has held his opponents to a single earned run or fewer in six of his nine outings across that span of time. Could the Indians rough him up? Sure. Along with a 116 wRC+ over the past 30 days, they’ve also struck out in only 14.6% of their plate appearances. However, in most formats, you’re locking Eovaldi in.
In the Danger Zone
Chris Archer (8/20 vs. ATL, 8/26 @MIL)
So far, Archer’s time in Pittsburgh has been a lot like his era in Tampa Bay: underwhelming with some strikeout upside. The latter is truly the most important part of the equation. Archer keeps getting cut slack because he has the ability to bring a 9.63 K/9 to the table. Well, in Week 20, that lone bright spot might not be available. Archer draws Atlanta and Milwaukee, two of the more potent left-handed lineups in all of baseball. The Braves’ LHBs lead MLB in batting average versus RHPs (.275), while the Brewers, still working in Mike Moustakas, have the league’s fifth-highest left-handed ISO against right-handed pitching (.198). Archer has a 4.40 FIP when facing LHBs in 2018, as he’s surrendered 1.35 long balls per nine. His strikeout rate also drops to just 21.5%. That’s just not enough ceiling to justify Archer’s suddenly non-existent floor.
Jhoulys Chacin (8/20 vs. CIN, 8/26 vs. PIT)
Much like Archer, there’s a big difference between Chacin against righty hitters and lefty hitters. LHBs have managed a .332 wOBA off the veteran this season, with the 30-year-old’s 1.49 WHIP within the split far more ugly than his pristine 0.92 figure versus right-handed bats. So, it’s then an unfortunate turn of events for Chacin, that he’ll be facing the Reds and Pirates next week. The two teams’ left-handed options have an identical .333 wOBA this year when drawing an RHP – both sit inside the top-10 in baseball. Cincinnati is also about volume. Only the Braves have more LHB plate appearance in left-on-right situations than the Reds. The squads also happen to rank highly in ability to hit the slider according to FanGraphs, a pitch that Chacin throws more than 41% of the time. It just doesn’t add up for him in Week 20.
Dylan Bundy (8/21 @TOR, 8/26 vs. NYY)
No. I’m just done. It’s not even worth having the conversation anymore. The man has a 6.10 FIP and .379 wOBA over his last 18 starts. He is the only qualified pitcher allowing more than two full home runs per nine innings. I’m going to go as far as to give you the Viagra-style warning. If feelings of wanting to start Dylan Bundy last for more than even four minutes – consult a doctor. But, like, one that deals in mental health.
Streamers Under 50%
Vince Velasquez (8/21 @WAS, 8/26 @TOR)
Shane Bieber (8/21 @BOS, 8/26 @KC)
Mike Fiers (8/20 vs. TEX, 8/25 @MIN)
Recently, according to ESPN Park Factors, Citizens Bank Park overtook Great American Ball Park as the best home run hitter’s environment in all of baseball for the 2018 season. Knowing that, it makes a little bit more sense as to why Velasquez’s home/road splits are so significant. This year, when pitching away from Philadelphia – as he’ll be doing in both starts in Week 20 – Velasquez has posted an ERA of 3.02, a FIP of 3.03, and an opponent wOBA of just .292. Yes, both the Nationals and Blue Jays bring left-handed heavy lineups to the table, but where the 26-year-old has surrendered 2.37 long balls per nine in his home outings, he’s allowed only 0.61 when set loose from Philadelphia. Fasten those numbers with an above-average strikeout rate and you’ve got the best streaming option on the board in a 10-man setting.
Streamers Under 25%
Jeremy Hellickson (8/21 vs. PHI, 8/26 @NYM)
Derek Holland (8/20 @NYM, 8/25 vs. TEX)
Jordan Zimmermann (8/21 vs. CHC, 8/26 vs. CWS)
In the mold of 2016 Kyle Hendricks, Hellickson is slowly becoming a contact savant. In fact, among the 133 pitchers that entered play Thursday with 80-plus innings under their belt in 2018, the veteran right-hander ranked eighth in terms of lowest hard contact rate allowed (27.3%). Maybe more impressive, however, Hellickson leads that same group of 133 with a massive 19.0% infield fly ball rate – with no other pitcher even cresting 17.0%. Now, all the average exit velocity statistics in the world don’t trump basic health, and Hellickson is still a question mark for next week after hurting his wrist on a collision at the plate, but, if we get a sense on Monday that the journeyman is good to go, lock him in across your deeper formats.
Not Unless You’re Desperate
Tyler Anderson
Ervin Santana
Marco Estrada
Trevor Richards
Austin Gomber
Luis Cessa
Lucas Giolito
Brett Anderson
Andrew Cashner
Robbie Erlin
Homer Bailey
Burch Smith
Glenn Sparkman
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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.
