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Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 8/6 – 8/12

Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 8/6 – 8/12

To put into perspective just how far we’re into the fantasy baseball season, as I write this week’s two-start pitchers article, the first preseason football game is taking place on the television in front of me. Now, for some the presence of football essentially marks the end of baseball, yet, if you’ve played your cards right across the past four months, having the pigskin back in our lives means something else entirely — the fantasy playoffs. That’s right; they’re just around the corner. Possibly even only a few weeks out for people playing in deeper formats.

So while Week 18 might appear to be like any other seven-day stretch of the summer — think again. We’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. We need wins. We need to exploit some two-start SPs.

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Don’t Think Twice

Max Scherzer (8/7 vs. ATL, 8/12 @CHC)
Carlos Carrasco (8/7 vs. MIN, 8/12 @CWS)
Trevor Bauer (8/6 vs. MIN, 8/11 @CWS)
Charlie Morton (8/6 @SF, 8/12 vs. SEA)
Noah Syndergaard (8/6 vs. CIN, 8/12 @MIA)

Widely-Owned Options

Sean Newcomb (8/7 @WAS, 8/12 vs. MIL)
There’s always risk attached to Newcomb, as his control is about as suspect as it gets for a pitcher who’s basically owned in all formats, but he does have strikeout upside. He’s also left-handed. That’s important with both the Nationals (96) and the Brewers (84) ranking in the bottom half of the league concerning wRC+ against southpaws.

Does Newcomb’s 15.2% walk rate in July freak me out? Sure. However, he’s also only allowed two earned runs over his last 14.2 innings. That’s enough.

Sean Manaea (8/7 vs. LAD, 8/12 @LAA)
I’ve been pulling out my hair owning Manaea all-season long, but if you only focus on the ratios, he’s resembled his early-year form as of late. Over his most recent 10 starts, his strikeout rate is an unappealing 16.7%, but he Manaea has pitched to a 3.10 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP — predicated on a microscopic 3.3% walk rate. There’s value in that even if it doesn’t jump off the stat sheet.

Really, Manaea’s a victim of his own efficiency. He just doesn’t work deep into counts. In fact, of the 569 batters he’s faced in 2018, only 47 have worked a full count. Sadly, there’s more real-life worth in pitch count management than there is in fantasy, but that doesn’t take away from Manaea’s skill.

Jake Arrieta (8/6 @ARI, 8/12 @SD)
Arrieta is essentially the National League’s Sean Manaea in that his skill set in 2018 hasn’t exactly lent itself to fantasy, yet he’s been productive. The veteran held a 3.33 FIP in July and had his highest monthly strikeout rate of the year with a 20.0% figure. Now, it’s not like that number is going to conjure images of Chris Sale or anything, but when paired with his ability to keep the ball on the ground and out of the seats, it more than validates his place in all formats. Plus, whenever you draw the Padres, it’s going to be at least a decent week.

Cole Hamels (8/6 @KC, 8/12 vs. WAS)
I’m not sure if I believe in the cosmic retribution that is karma, but its pretty hilarious that after pitching in the nightmarish Globe Life Park for the first four months of the season, Hamels has drawn PNC and Kauffman in his first two starts as a Cub. It’s gotten to the point where you can no longer ignore Hamels’ splits outside of Texas. Even if ballparks nowhere near as friendly as the spacious fields in Pittsburgh and Kansas City, the veteran sports a 2.69 ERA with a 27.0% strikeout rate.

Now, do I think that the real Cole Hamels lies somewhere in between those numbers and the atrocious figures he put up in Arlington? 100% yes. However, that hypothetical guy, with the win expectancy that comes with pitching for Chicago, is extremely viable.

Chase Anderson (8/7 vs. SD, 8/12 @ATL)
This is an ideal spot in terms of scheduling for Anderson. Sure, the absolute ideal would be not having to pitch in Milwaukee at all, where his .340 opponent wOBA is 69 points higher than his mark on the road in 2018, but if you have to grace Miller Park with your presence, it’s best if you’re facing the team with the league’s lowest ISO (.120) and wOBA (.283) against RHPs. Plus, when it comes to the extremely left-handed Braves, who rank third in baseball with 1,800-plus LHB plate appearances versus right-handed pitching, Anderson has reverse splits. He’s surrendered just a .298 wOBA to lefties this year. Works for me.

Zack Godley (8/6 vs. PHI, 8/12 @CIN)
It’s not quite the automatic decision that it was a year ago, but Godley’s begun to find some consistency the past two months. Going back to June 10, a span of 58 innings for the RHP, Godley possesses a 2.82 FIP with a 26.8% strikeout rate. He’s also only allowed two home runs in that stretch of time, a factor that hinges on an impressive 50.6% groundball rate. That’s all fantastic.

Now, the surface numbers aren’t quite as pristine. He’s had a seven-run blow-up against the Giants of all teams, but it’s more than enough to trust him heading into Week 18. Heck, he’s struck out 11.0 opposing batters per nine over his most recent four outings. If that’s not doing it for you, trade the man to me.

Jameson Taillon (8/7 @COL, 8/12 @SF)
Look, going to Colorado is never what you want for a pitcher you own, yet I’m convinced that Taillon’s floor is so high, he won’t even notice the shift in altitude. Take a gander at the man’s numbers across his past 12 outings. In that time, during which he’s thrown 73.2 innings, Taillon’s 3.18 ERA and 3.15 FIP are near identical, and he’s struck out an above-average 22.4% of the batters he’s faced. He’s also surrendered three earned runs or fewer in every single start. Add the fact that his non-Coors Field assignment is a San Francisco squad with the lowest ISO in baseball over the previous 30 days (.108) and you’ve got a trustworthy SP.

In the Danger Zone

Rich Hill (8/7 @OAK, 8/12 @COL)
When the scariest start on your schedule isn’t even the game at Coors Field – that’s saying something. Oakland’s been a wrecking crew over the past 30 days, leading the American League in runs scored, home runs, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. That’s pretty good.

The only team with better isolated power across that span of time is the Rockies. Granted, they had a favorable path in July, with 14 of their 23 games coming in Colorado, but they once again play all their games at home in Week 18. Hill does bring some elite strikeout upside to the table. However, he’s running the gauntlet next week. Avoid him.

Kyle Freeland (8/6 vs. PIT, 8/11 vs. LAD)
Though BABIP has played a significant role in these splits, Freeland has thrived in Colorado’s altitude in 2018, pitching to a 2.45 ERA across 55 innings. Still, there’s no way I want to roster someone having to navigate Coors Field twice in one week without the benefit of even the slightest amount of contact suppression. That’s not to say that Freeland doesn’t do an admirable job of mitigating “dangerous” types of contact.

His groundball rate is hovering around 50%, and his opponent soft contact rate in home starts is among the league leaders at 25.2%. Yet at the end of the day, bad contact is still contact. Freeland leaves himself vulnerable to park effects, and his strikeout rate is a measly 15.2% since June 16. There’s just not enough upside to justify the risk.

Marcus Stroman (8/7 vs. BOS, 8/12 vs. TB)
He’s been nowhere near as poor as he was before going on the DL, but something still seems off when I watch Stroman pitch. I won’t hold his slaughter at the hands of the Athletics against him for reasons already discussed in this article. However, much like the aforementioned Freeland, there comes a point when you have to measure risk and reward.

For as lovely as Stroman’s 61.0% groundball rate looks on paper — what does it mean in fantasy if his walk rate and BABIP are high enough to produce an ugly 1.49 WHIP? Stroman’s 18.3% strikeout rate is right in line with his numbers from the past four seasons and improvement isn’t on the horizon. He’s a fine matchup-based play, but locking him in for a week where he’s due to face the Red Sox is laughable.

Wade LeBlanc (8/6 @TEX, 8/11 @HOU)
Save for a 10-strikeout performance against the lowly and swing-happy White Sox, not a lot has gone right for the journeyman across the past month of action. So while it was a nice story, it’s time to cut the lefty loose. Not only is LeBlanc’s ERA up to 5.76 since June 22, he’s also surrendered nine home runs in that stretch of baseball.

It should also be noted that while the injury-ravaged Astros have managed only a meager .302 wOBA over the past two weeks, they should be close to 100% by the time August 11 rolls around. Carlos Correa began his rehab assignment last night and Jose Altuve, who went off the DL July 28, will be eligible to be activated by then. I don’t think anyone would favor LeBlanc against a healthy version of the reigning World Series Champions.

Streamers Under 50%

Luke Weaver (8/6 @MIA, 8/12 @KC)
Dereck Rodriguez (8/6 vs. HOU, 8/12 vs. PIT)
Kyle Gibson (8/6 @CLE, 8/11 @DET)
C.C. Sabathia (8/7 @CWS, 8/12 vs. TEX)

Coming into Wednesday night, it seemed as if things were getting better for Weaver. Though he’d had a recent hiccup against the Cubs in Chicago, three of his past four starts had been quality outings, and he’d managed to strikeout over a batter per inning going all the way back to June 24. However, things did not go well Wednesday, and if any lesson was to be gleaned from the affair, it was that the desperate Cardinals no longer had a long leash on their young starter.

I mention all this because it’s important to realize how little I fear either the Marlins or the Royals even when faced with as unsavory a pitching circumstance as Weaver’s. Both teams are actively trying to tank and each sent out its fair share of useful players at the trade deadline. If Weaver can’t take advantage of two of baseball’s worst rosters in a pair of its most pitcher-friendly parks, I’m not sure what else is left to be said.

Streamers Under 25%

Matthew Boyd (8/6 @LAA, 8/12 vs. MIN)
Drew Pomeranz (8/7 @TOR, 8/12 @BAL)

With his extreme flyball tendencies, Boyd has found a perfect home in Comerica Park, where he’s held opposing batters to an excellent .258 wOBA so far this season. Yes, only one of his starts in Week 12 will come in Detroit, and it’s arguably the easier of the two, but it’s not as if Boyd is incapable of success outside of his home park, either. He’s had quality starts in Boston, Toronto, and Kansas City since the beginning of June and, if that sample of time is too wide for you, take a look at specifically his past three starts. Including his last outing, a night where he tossed eight scoreless innings against the Reds, Boyd has pitched to a 1.53 FIP since July 20 with a massive 27.0% strikeout rate. He’ll only need to carry over a sliver of that success to be a fantasy contributor in Week 18.

Not Unless You’re Desperate

Joe Musgrove
Felix Hernandez
Dan Straily
Jakob Junis
Clayton Richard
Alex Cobb
Nick Tropeano
Andrew Cashner
Bartolo Colon
Antonio Senzatela
Yovani Gallardo
Dylan Covey
Tommy Milone
Adalberto Mejia

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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.

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