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Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 9/3 – 9/9

Fantasy Baseball Two-Start Pitchers: 9/3 – 9/9

Week 22 of the Fantasy Baseball season. Playoff time. Roster expansion time. Last-ditch push time in rotisserie formats. Whatever your own personal meaning for the first week of games in September, we can all agree how important this part of the year is for MLB Fantasy. Sure, a lot of the latter half of the season is fighting fatigue, pushing through roster desensitization and the alluring siren call that is the NFL, but we’ve made it. Now’s the time to bring home some championship hardware and correctly assessing which two-start pitchers to use can make the difference. So, with that in mind, let’s dive into it.

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Don’t Think Twice

Max Scherzer (9/3 vs. STL, 9/8 vs. CHC)
Jacob deGrom (9/3 @LAD, 9/9 vs. PHI)
Cole Hamels (9/3 @MIL, 9/9 @WAS)
Mike Clevinger (9/4 vs. KC, 9/9 @TOR)
Mike Foltynewicz (9/4 vs. BOS, 9/9 @ARI)

Widely-Owned Options

David Price (9/3 @ATL, 9/9 vs. HOU)
Not exactly an ideal pair of matchups when it comes to Price’s strikeout upside, but this has more to do with injury uncertainty. The veteran had to exit his start against the Marlins on Wednesday after being hit on his left wrist by a comeback line drive. Now, X-rays did come back negative, however, Price has yet to be confirmed for his scheduled outing on Labor Day. If he is good to go, he’ll obviously be a part of your Week 22 lineup considering his 2.62 FIP and 24.4% strikeout rate since July 20th.

Zack Godley (9/3 vs. SD, 9/9 vs. ATL)
Godley is coming off one of his best starts of the season, holding the lowly Giants to just two hits across 6.2 innings. Still, it’s not as if this is the lone highlight the 28-year-old has over the past few months. Though it might not appear so abruptly on the surface, especially directly contrasted to his overwhelming success last year, Godley possesses a 2.15 FIP and 27.4% strikeout rate since July 6th – a span of 62.1 innings. That’s amazing stuff. It helps that Godley has also allowed just a single long ball in that nearly two-month run of success.

Jake Arrieta (9/3 @MIA, 9/8 @NYM)
The veteran RHP has been roughed up in three of his last four outings, however, as only pitchers in the National League East and American League Central can attest, sometimes the schedule just reaches out and gives you a hug. Arrieta draws the Marlins and Mets in Week 22 and while, yes, New York has actually been decent offensively in August, Miami has most certainly not. The Marlins’ .276 wOBA and 71 wRC+ in the month rank them ahead of only a free-falling Giants squad and, with Justin Bour now a teammate of Arrieta, Miami has no frightening LHBs to throw at the Phillies’ starter. He’s far from an ace, but he’ll get the job done.

Kyle Freeland (9/3 vs. SF, 9/9 vs. LAD)
I’ve gone back-and-forth on Freeland’s value in Week 22. On the one hand, he’s pitched to a 2.20 ERA since June 16th – that’s 86 innings of work. Also, in that same span, his ERA is somehow 1.81 at home. But where is home? Coors Field, that’s where. Both of Freeland’s starts next week come in the altitude of Colorado, yet here’s why that fact isn’t making me shy away. Not only has the 25-year-old just simply pitched well the last few months, he’s seen his strikeout numbers spike across his last couple of outings. Freeland possesses a 31.1% strikeout rate over his past four starts, along with a 2.72 FIP. That’s good enough to make me ignore where these games are being played. Plus, have I mentioned how bad San Francisco has been in the second half?

CC Sabathia (9/3 @OAK, 9/9 @SEA)
Much like the previously mentioned Kyle Freeland, Sabathia has been on somewhat of an unexpected strikeout tear over his last six starts. Beginning on July 28th, the veteran has looked a bit like his former self, retiring 31.4% of the 137 batters he’s faced on strikes. He’s also managed a 2.87 FIP and 26.0% soft contact rate – an extension of his 84.7mph average exit velocity, a number that stands as the fourth-lowest figure among starting pitchers with at least 200 batted ball events to their name. When you add ceiling to a pitcher with such a sturdy floor, how can you lose?

Alex Wood (9/3 vs. NYM, 9/9 @COL)
If it hasn’t become clear to you yet, Coors Field casts a large shadow upon the proceedings of Week 22. It goes without saying that it’s not the place you want your pitchers to be starting on a given week, however, if there is a way to survive the altitude, Wood fits the archetype. Though the strikeout numbers have been pedestrian at best across his last six outings, the left-hander has maintained an elite 61.7% groundball rate over that span of time. He’s also just pitched to a 1.87 ERA and held opposing batters to a .251 wOBA. In any case, it’s hard for the altitude to assist a ball that’s been driven into the dirt.

Dallas Keuchel (9/3 vs. MIN, 9/9 @BOS)
It’s never sexy, it doesn’t come with high strikeout totals, and he started the season slowly, but it’s hard to find a player with a built-in floor as high as Keuchel. He’s got massive win expectancy with the Astros’ offense now back to full strength and, over his last 14 outings, he sports a 3.08 FIP with a 28.3% opponent hard contact rate. He’s won seven times in that span. Four of the other seven were quality starts by definition. As always, he’s an admirable SP4.

In the Danger Zone

Madison Bumgarner (9/3 @COL, 9/9 @MIL)
I know, your season’s on the line and I’m telling you to bench arguably the most “clutch” pitcher of this generation. Well, two problems. First, “clutchness” isn’t a thing. Second, traveling to Coors Field and Miller Park might be a death sentence for the veteran lefty. A 2.68 ERA over 16 outings looks fine enough, but the fact of the matter is that Bumgarner is not the pitcher he used to be. The velocity on his cut fastball remains below 86mph, his FIP is over a full run higher than that aforementioned ERA, and his zone contact rate is up to 89.7%. Really, the case could be made that AT&T Park has been somewhat of a smokescreen to these underlying issues. Bumgarner sports a .339 opponent wOBA away from San Francisco in 2018, with a 4.86 FIP and 44.2% hard contact rate. Ask yourself, if these numbers weren’t attached to a former World Series MVP, would you ever want a pitcher like this starting for your team in Colorado?

Sean Newcomb (9/3 vs. BOS, 9/8 @ARI)
Since the beginning of July, Newcomb has been awful. There’s really no other way to put it. The lefty has a 5.88 ERA, 5.29 FIP, and a massive 1.58 WHIP over 52 nightmarish innings with right-handed bats combining to hit to a .379 wOBA. The inability to retire RHBs is a huge problem in a vacuum, but it’s an especially looming issue with both Boston and Arizona on Newcomb’s Week 22 slate. There are only eight qualified hitters who carry a wRC+ of 150 or better this season, six of the eight are natural right-handed hitters. Three of those six – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Paul Goldschmidt – are employed by either the Red Sox or the D-Backs. Tread carefully with Atlanta’s sophomore pitcher.

Miles Mikolas (9/3 @WAS, 9/8 @DET)
I’m just not sure what the allure of playing a struggling Mikolas is. Entering play on Thursday, the 30-year-old had been the 329th most valuable player in standard 5×5 leagues across the last 30 days. That’s because, since July 28th, Mikolas has pitched to a middling 4.10 FIP with a microscopic 16.0% strikeout rate. He’s also seen LHBs collect a .382 wOBA – a large concern with the Nationals slated to be his opposition on Monday. Washington’s left-handed batters have amassed a .350 wOBA off of RHPs in 2018, trailing only the Dodgers for the best mark in all of baseball. Though they’ve traded Matt Adams and Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Matt Wieters, and Wilmer Difo remain. Plus, sticking to this same contest, with Max Scherzer set to take the mound for the Nationals, Mikolas’ win expectancy isn’t exceedingly high.

Gio Gonzalez (9/4 vs. STL, 9/9 vs. CHC)
I’m at a bit of a loss as to why 57% of people on Yahoo! still own Gonzalez. There’s no way to sugarcoat it, he’s just been horrendous for more than half the season. Going back to June 9th, the veteran LHP possesses a 6.78 ERA with a bleak 3.5% differentiation between his strikeout and walk rates. His 1.82 WHIP is the sort of statistic that will wake you up in a cold sweat in the middle of the night and his .382 wOBA is the stuff that DFS stacks are born from. Please, for your own safety, drop Gio Gonzalez. You can’t accidentally put him in your lineup if he’s not even on your roster.

Streamers Under 50%

Trevor Williams (9/3 vs. CIN, 9/9 vs. MIA)
Freddy Peralta (9/3 vs. CHC, 9/9 vs. SF)
Nick Pivetta (9/4 @MIA, 9/9 @NYM)
Michael Fulmer (9/3 @CWS, 9/8 vs. STL)

Sometimes life doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Sometimes people don’t get what they deserve. It’s what drove Frank Grimes insane in that one episode of “The Simpsons.” Well, if there’s currently a player that could lead to Homer Simpson-inducing levels of frustration, it’s Williams. I don’t know how he’s pitched to a pristine 0.75 ERA across his past 48 innings, all I know is nothing significant has changed in his approach. In fact, if anything, the only noticeable difference is that his average fastball velocity has been lower since July rolled around. His xFIP is 4.84, his strand rate is 100% despite a 15.6% strikeout rate, he’s walking around three opponents per nine. Yet, he gets the awful Reds and even more awful Marlins at home, at the spacious PNC Park, during Week 22. The shoe’s going to drop at some point, but I don’t suspect it will be within his next two starts.

Streamers Under 25%

Tyler Glasnow (9/4 @TOR, 9/9 vs. BAL)
Joey Lucchesi (9/3 @ARI, 9/9 @CIN)
John Gant (9/4 @WAS, 9/9 @DET)

As always, it comes down to specific team needs when streaming a two-start pitcher, yet, if you’re looking to hit a home run, they don’t come with more upside than Glasnow in 12-man formats. Since making his way to Tampa Bay – the McGyver of MLB teams – Glasnow possesses a 3.24 FIP, massive 35.2% strikeout rate, and an opponent wOBA of just .253. To put that in perspective, only two of the 126 pitchers to throw 20-plus innings in August can claim to have struck out a higher percentage of batters: Jacob deGrom and, Glasnow’s new teammate, Blake Snell. With the bottom two clubs in the American League East on the schedule, I predict special things from Glasnow in Week 22.

Not Unless You’re Desperate

Matt Harvey
Adam Plutko
Jose Urena
Erasmo Ramirez
Jakob Junis
Reynaldo Lopez
Ryan Borucki
Francisco Liriano
Thomas Pannone
Cody Reed
Ariel Jurado
Kohl Stewart

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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.

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