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Fantasy Football Half-PPR Mock Draft (Late Pick)

Fantasy Football Half-PPR Mock Draft (Late Pick)

A week after conducting a mock draft with the first pick, I fired up the Draft Wizard for another weekend practice run. This time I aimed to see how the simulation shakes up from the bottom.

While I’d love to draw a top-five selection – especially in a PPR or half-PPR format – choosing near the end isn’t too shabby, either. Depending on how the uncertain No. 6-9 sinkhole unfolds, drafters should either find a stud running back and wide receiver or two of either waiting. The randomizer kept spitting out pick No. 7, so I took destiny into my own hands and decided to operate from the final slot. I once again drafted against the consensus expert rankings and ADP using a half-PPR scoring system.

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1.12: Julio Jones (WR – ATL)
2.1: Kareem Hunt (RB – KC)
Although not directly relevant to this late-pick exercise, the first round commenced in an atypical fashion. David Johnson went with the first pick, and DeAndre Hopkins was selected ahead of Antonio Brown in the fifth slot. Weird things happen sometimes, so always be ready to adapt.

I was hoping to pair Odell Beckham Jr. or Jones with Hunt or Melvin Gordon. To my relief, Jones and Hunt were both waiting at the turn. Whiles Jones’ TD woes are concerning for a team cornerstone, he also provides immense safety in the form of four consecutive 1,400-yards seasons. He’s second to Brown in receptions (411) and receiving yards (6,317) during that window, so he’ll easily pay off this investment by merely scoring six touchdowns – his previous career low during a full season – instead of last year’s three.

Hunt does not brandish such a track record, and his rookie breakout contained a nine-week funk where he failed to find the end zone. He still averaged 20.3 touches and 111.3 yards per game despite getting just one touch (a 35-yard touchdown) in an inconsequential Week 17. Per Pro Football Focus’ Scott Barrett, Hunt cemented the 11th top-10 campaign for an Andy Reid running back in the last 14 years. While I momentarily considered doubling up at receiver with Michael Thomas, I would have regretted that choice with Alex Collins, Lamar Miller, and Jay Ajayi the best backs remaining at my next picks.

3.12: Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI)
How does Fitzgerald, a stud with 109, 107, and 109 receptions in each of the last three seasons, fall this far in a half-PPR draft? Look at how his numbers from 2015-17 compare to other second-round receivers:

Player GP TAR REC REC YD TD 2018 ADP
Larry Fitzgerald 48 456 325 3,394 21 40
Mike Evans 46 457 241 3,528 20 24
A.J. Green 42 375 227 3,329 22 21

 

I considered him at the No. 24/25 turn when picking from the first slot, so stealing the future Hall of Famer was a no-brainer here.

4.1: Demaryius Thomas (WR – DEN)
One of six receivers targeted more than Fitzgerald in the last three seasons, Thomas is another boring, but undervalued volume fiend. Yet to miss a game since 2011, he has garnered at least 140 looks in each of the past six campaigns. Case Keenum should refresh Thomas’ streak of 90-catch, 1,000-yard outputs snapped because of Denver’s putrid quarterback play.

5.12: Dion Lewis (RB – TEN)
With 25 running backs already off the board, I was relieved to see Lewis still available. How do the Titans not find work for someone who averaged 5.0 yards per carry and caught 32 of 36 targets last year? He’s better than DeMarco Murray, who absorbed 14.9 touches per game in last season’s committee with Derrick Henry. Lewis turned a lesser workload (13.3 touches per game) into an RB12 finish. Concerns of the 27-year-old staying healthy and replicating his success away from New England are valid, but some skeptics are too quick to give the Patriots all the credit for unlocking a talented player’s potential.

6.1: Mark Ingram (RB – NO)
I liked my foundation enough to stash Ingram, who will serve a four-game suspension to start 2018. While his production withered late last season and into the playoffs, he doesn’t need to be a top-five RB when on the field to justify a selection over Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel. He tallied a dozen touchdowns despite first finding paydirt in Week 5, so I’m expecting a low-end RB1 or top-tier RB2 when he returns.

7.12: Trey Burton (TE – CHI)
Just like the last draft, I decided I couldn’t risk waiting another two rounds to take Burton. Although I’m probably getting sucked into a cycle of confirmation bias, a strong preseason has me wondering if I need to raise my TE9 ranking. He’s working the slot in schemes Matt Nagy, and Kevin M. Gilbride used to vault Travis Kelce and Evan Engram, respectively, to fantasy stardom. I’d rather reach for him than George Kittle or O.J. Howard.

8.1: Pierre Garcon (WR – SF)
It would have probably made more sense to snag another running back since I possess a better and safer receiving tandem. However, I liked Garcon more than the top backs (Duke Johnson, Tarik Cohen, Jamaal Williams, Carlos Hyde) available. He was midway to 1,000 yards before suffering a season-ending neck injury, and that was for the 0-8 49ers steered by Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard. His stock is dipping as the Marquise Goodwin bandwagon – he was drafted in the sixth -gains steam, but a healthy Garcon should make a strong matchup play with Jimmy Garoppolo under center.

9.12: Duke Johnson (RB – CLE)
Phew, Johnson lasted to my next pair of picks. I need a stable RB to make up for Ingram’s suspension and Lewis’ spotty health record. This pass-catching back lacks elite upside with Cleveland revamping the offense, but he has averaged 942 yards per season. His 188 receptions lead the position since the start of 2015, so he’s an ideal half-PPR depth piece. Last season’s RB21 (11 in PPR) can regress and still outplay this pick No. 108 cost with ease.

10.1: Philip Rivers (QB – LAC)
I could have penciled in this pick in before beginning the draft. Rivers is nearly a lock to comfortably exceed 4,000 passing yards with 28-plus touchdowns. Mike Williams should ease the end-zone thanks to the void left by losing Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates. While I don’t regret pegging him as my starting signal-caller, I mistakenly reached out of fear of missing a run. No quarterback was taken in the next three rounds, so I could have waited to grab him, Ben Roethlisberger, or Matt Ryan at the next turn.

11.12: Josh Doctson (WR – WAS)
I accumulated enough target hounds to take a high-upside flier. Doctson fit the mold perfectly. Although he corralled an abysmal 35 of 78 targets, he still recorded six touchdowns. He’s a Jordan Reed-injury away from again leading Washington in red-zone targets.

12.1: Jordan Wilkins (RB – IND)
This may be a reach, and I would have received better value from another quarterback (Roethlisberger), wide receiver (Anthony Miller), or tight end (Reed). But I still lacked RB depth in light of Ingram’s suspensions, and our computer overlords have simply gotten too smart. Williams, Bilal Powell, Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, and Peyton Barber were all long gone, and I’m not befouling my roster with LeGarrette Blount.

13.12: Alex Smith (QB – WAS)
Some drafters enact a strict one-quarterback rule. But if that first passer isn’t a stud and there’s another value on the board, why not bolster your portfolio? Smith getting ignored after a QB4 season is looking more and more like a huge mistake.

He has completed over 65.0 percent of his passes in each of the last four seasons and should easily exceed career highs in pass attempts (508) and yards (4,042) with Derrius Guice out for the season. Before getting three top-10 QB seasons from Kirk Cousins, Jay Gruden milked a QB5 campaign out of Andy Dalton in 2013. Rivers and Smith present a strong platoon of starting-caliber passers.

14.1: Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
Godwin joins Burton as a duplicate from my early mock. Amid a bountiful harvest of dart-throw wideouts (Ryan Grant, Geronimo Allison, Tyrell Williams, Keelan Cole), I again gravitated toward Tampa Bay’s expected starter. Per CBS Sports’ Dave Richard, sources told colleague Pete Prisco that “some think Godwin will be WR1A to Mike Evans‘ WR1 by the end of the year.” Seeing more of this in the season would be swell. I did this mock before Marquise Lee suffered a knee injury on Saturday night, so I’d now prefer Cole in this spot.

15.12: Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
The Steelers submitted an NFL-high 56 sacks and relinquished the fifth-fewest yards last season. They open the season at Cleveland before hosting Kansas City, facing Ryan Fitzpatrick’s Buccaneers, and fighting the Ravens in a traditionally hard-hitting, low-scoring rivalry (except for the last time they met). This seems like a good deal for the 12th defense off the board.

16.1: Stephen Gostkowski (K – NE)
This will never happen in a real draft with flawed, feeble humans who call fantasy football a hobby rather than an occupation. Somebody is inevitably going to take a kicker before the final round. I’ll likely never get to make this choice again, but Gostkowski has finished five of the last six seasons first or second in fantasy points at the position. Consistency gives him the edge over Greg Zuerlein, and New England’s top-ranked offense puts him ahead of Baltimore’s Justin Tucker.

Final Roster

QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Kareem Hunt
RB: Dion Lewis
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Demaryius Thomas
TE: Trey Burton
FLEX: Mark Ingram
DST: Pittsburgh Steelers
K: Stephen Gostkowski

Bench: Alex Smith, Duke Johnson, Jordan Wilkins, Pierre Garcon, Josh Doctson, Chris Godwin

I like this team better than my early-pick mock. The Draft Wizard disagrees, grading it a 90 with a third-place projected finish. Perhaps Ingram’s suspension dragged down the projections, but I don’t mind spending four weeks with Johnson, Garcon, or another matchup play as my flex.

Here’s an overview of the draft:


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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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