With the fantasy football draft season in full swing, here are Mike Tagliere’s 2018 fantasy football rankings. Below are his overall rankings, and we’ll highlight a few notable players along Tags’ take.
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Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) +5 vs. ECR
When a team selects a running back with the No. 2 overall pick in today’s game, they’re going to use him, a lot. Last year in Pat Shurmur’s offense, then-rookie Dalvin Cook totaled 71 touches in the team’s first three games before getting hurt in Week 4. His pace was 379 total touches, which would have ranked No. 2 behind only Todd Gurley. Unlike Ezekiel Elliott, Barkley won’t even be the opponent’s biggest fear as long as Odell Beckham Jr. is on the field. With Barkley suffering a slight hamstring strain, it’s unlikely we see him for much more of the preseason.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) -2 vs. ECR
The good news is that the Cowboys offensive line has been replenished in both free agency and the draft. The bad news is that there’s little talent surrounding Elliott, which could prove to make life difficult on him. While Dez Bryant and Jason Witten weren’t in their primes, they demanded attention from opposing defensive coordinators. Unfortunately, Terrance Williams and Allen Hurns don’t. Elliott will get all the work he can handle, which is important but just how efficient can he be?
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) -1 vs. ECR
Did you know that Kamara scored more fantasy points on just his receiving totals than Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, and Jordy Nelson did in 2017? His 826 yards and five touchdowns would’ve ranked 24th among wide receivers. We’re talking about a running back. Even if we dial back some of his efficiency, the suspension of Mark Ingram can give him some touches to help compensate. It’s only natural that a player going into year two would receive more touches, anyway. The over/under for his touch total should be around 250 this year.
Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC) +2 vs. ECR
If we could guarantee that Fournette would stay on the field for all 16 games, he’d be worthy of a top-five pick, but his foot troubles are a concern. Not only did Blake Bortles start to play competently toward the end of the season, but the Jaguars added Andrew Norwell in free agency, who is one of the best offensive guards in football. Fournette should see some lighter fronts en route to another top-10 finish.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – NYG) -2 vs. ECR
It’s now a 47-game sample size, so we have plenty of data to analyze him against. Beckham Jr. has posted WR1 numbers in 48.9 percent of those games, which is simply ridiculous. Just how ridiculous? Well, the closest wide receiver to his totals over the last 15 years is Julio Jones, who has hit the WR1 mark in 40.4 percent of his games. The addition of Saquon Barkley is likely to take away some of his massive potential, but he’s still a generational talent that is going to be heavily involved. Don’t overthink it, he’s good.
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN) +3 vs. ECR
After totaling 71 touches over the first three games, Cook didn’t get to show us much of a sample size, though what we did see looked promising. One downfall is that Pat Shurmur is no longer calling plays for the Vikings, though some are excited to see what Joe DiFilippo can do in that role. Still, the defense is as good as ever, which is only good news for Cook’s projected attempts. After analyzing the strength of schedule in our own way, Cook had the best schedule among all running backs. While Latavius Murray will get some work, there’s little reason to believe that Cook isn’t the workhorse who gets 65-70 percent of the touches.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU) -7 vs. ECR
There are a lot of fantasy football owners going gaga over Hopkins in 2018, but I’d warn you to proceed with caution. Not only did the Texans throw a lot more than they wanted to in 2017 because of all the injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but the 9.3 percent touchdown rate by Deshaun Watson is completely inflated. While Hopkins remains one of the safest wide receivers due to his volume, you don’t want to pay for last year’s performance. Don’t forget that he finished as the WR36 in 2016 while seeing 151 targets. I get it, Watson is better than what he’s had, but temper those expectations. There were an incredible 10 games where Hopkins saw 11 or more targets in 2017, while no other wide receiver totaled more than eight of those games.
Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) +4 vs. ECR
Most have somehow forgotten how highly-touted Mixon was coming out of Oklahoma. He’s a true three-down workhorse running back that can handle 20-plus touches per game if they want him to, and that’s exactly how they treated him once Jeremy Hill went down last year, as he averaged 17.6 touches per game from Week 8-12 before he hurt his ankle in Week 13. Those 17.6 touches per game would’ve ranked as the 13th most among running backs last year. If the Bengals can become a competent offense once again after rebuilding the offensive line, Mixon has top-five upside. In the preseason opener, Mixon was all over the field, including lining up at wide receiver where he caught a touchdown.
Ronald Jones (RB – TB) +29 vs. ECR
Not only have I been bullish on rookie running backs, but I’m bullish on the Bucs offense as a whole. When you have the firepower of Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and Cameron Brate in front of you, it’s not likely that a defense will ever make it their priority to stop the running back. It appears as-if Peyton Barber will open the year as the starter, though I’m still betting on talent winning out in the end. Barber has been on the roster the last two years, so the Bucs likely already know what they have, which is what led to them spending a high second-round pick on Jones. You’ll deal with some growing pains, but I believe he’ll have top-30 numbers at year’s end.
Chris Hogan (WR – NE) +7 vs. ECR
Despite playing in just nine games in 2017, Hogan managed to finish tied for 25th in red zone targets, and actually had the same amount that Brandin Cooks (12) did, despite Cooks playing all 16 games. It goes to show the confidence Tom Brady has developed with him, so by taking Hogan where he’s currently going in drafts, you’re getting WR1 upside at WR4 cost.
Andrew Luck (QB – IND) +16 vs. ECR
Let’s be real about this – nobody outside of Andrew Luck knows whether or not he can return to form. What I can tell you about his preseason performance is that he looked fantastic. He’ll now be playing behind the best offensive line of his career and in an offense that’ll likely be much more creative than the ones he’s been in to this point. Ideally, he’d have better options to throw to, but as he’s shown in the past, he can make it work if healthy.
Jamison Crowder (WR – WAS) +6 vs. ECR
After Washington traded for Alex Smith, I knew I’d be high on Crowder. My interest only grew fonder when they brought in Paul Richardson, who should help stretch the field and open things underneath for Crowder. Smith doesn’t like throwing into tight windows, as evidenced by NFL’s NextGenStats that show a league-low 12 percent of his throws went to a wide receiver with one or less yard of separation. While Richardson and Josh Doctson were mediocre at separating, Crowder averaged 3.2 yards of separation, which ranked eighth among wide receivers in 2017. Reports out of camp are that the Smith/Crowder connection has been apparent in the red zone.
Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG) +38 vs. ECR
Over the first two years of his career, Shepard has shown the ability to step up and be the focal point of a passing attack, though he doesn’t need to be with Odell Beckham Jr. on the field. To know that he has that ability is a bonus, though, as Beckham Jr. has dealt with injuries throughout his career. Pat Shurmur did wonders for Adam Thielen‘s career while working out of the slot, which is where Shepard has played over 80 percent of his snaps the last two years. He’s going to give you WR4 production regardless, but has upside for much more. If someone tells you he’s not a WR3, ask them what the difference is between someone like him and Juju Smith-Schuster. While the latter may have a better quarterback, Shepard may see more targets.
Adrian Peterson (RB – WAS) +20 vs. ECR
The Derrius Guice injury had a trickle-down effect on the rest of the depth chart, though it’s odd to see them sign Peterson. He’s a two-down back who has a skill-set similar to Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine. There was a time where it wouldn’t have mattered who was on the depth chart, but that time is long gone, as Peterson has totaled just 601 yards on his last 193 carries, which amounts to just 3.12 yards per carry. He does walk onto a team with a solid offensive line, something that wouldn’t have been said about Arizona’s last year. In his preseason debut, Peterson looked spry, totaling 56 yards on 11 carries. While it’s just one game, he was the clear-cut starter running with the first-team offense, giving him RB3/flex value in fantasy leagues.
Use Tags’ rankings as well as others from our expert consensus to complete a mock draft and prepare for your fantasy football draft in minutes!
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