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Hitters to Target in Deep Leagues (2018 Fantasy Baseball)

Hitters to Target in Deep Leagues (2018 Fantasy Baseball)

If it hasn’t already passed, the trade deadline is quickly approaching in most fantasy leagues. That will leave the waiver wire as the only portal for improvement, a particularly tricky task in deeper formats.

At least MLB’s deadline created some job openings for players with a consensus ownership percentage below 10 percent. As usual, injuries and hot hands continue to replenish the player pool with serviceable additions. While the first two players need playing time to make significant marks, the final three have the opportunity to at least help in the next week or two.

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Harrison Bader (OF – STL): 6 Percent Owned
Tyler O’Neill (OF – STL): 8 Percent Owned
The Cardinals had too many outfielders, so they traded their best one. Days after selling Tommy Pham for cents on the dollar to Tampa Bay, Dexter Fowler fractured his foot on a foul ball. That now leaves two openings for Bader and O’Neill.

Before getting too excited, Jose Martinez started both weekend games in right field. That’s a disastrous defensive decision, but a relieving one to those who have watched the first baseman lose playing time. It’s also an interesting development for Jedd Gyorko, who has started the last four games at third.

But back to their young outfielders. Both showed enough promise to deem Pham expendable, so it would make sense to give them an extended look. Although not a standout slugger or sprinter, Bader has stuffed the roto stat sheet by batting .271/.338/.404 with six home runs and 11 stolen bases in 88 games. His 1.9 fWAR ranks third among St. Louis position players behind Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina, so he should survive their lineup roulette more often than not.

O’Neill, meanwhile, brings potent raw power to the fold. After batting .311/.388/.711 with 26 deep flies in 61 Triple-A games, the 23-year-old has gone deep thrice in 60 MLB plate appearances with a .348 wOBA and 42.4 hard-hit percentage. He has also struck out 24 times with a 58.8 contact percentage and 21.7 swinging-strike percentage. Unless you can defy the rules of plate discipline like Javier Baez, it’s rarely wise to chase 40.5 percent of pitches seen outside the strike zone. If he maintains those rates, the 5’10” righty will hit closer to .209 than his current .309 average.

Bader is the better bet in a vacuum, but picking one may depend on team needs and league settings. Anyone desperate for power will struggle to find a free agent with O’Neill’s potential. Just beware of the batting average downside if he doesn’t fix those contact woes.

Bader, who can do a bit of everything, has the safer path to playing time since St. Louis is down two center fielders. While the small splits would point to a platoon favoring O’Neill, it’s unlikely St. Louis lines him up in center regularly. Then again, this is the same team giving Martinez some exposure in right field.

Aledmys Diaz (SS/3B – TOR): 2 Percent Owned
Even if Bader or O’Neill break out this summer, the Cardinals could get bored and trade one if he underwhelms next year. See Diaz, who was sent packing after a putrid 2017 (.291 wOBA) despite a stellar rookie campaign (.370 wOBA). While he has not risen back to 2016 heights, the shortstop has belted 14 homers in just 287 plate appearances. He has given the Blue Jays a cheap and acceptable replacement for Troy Tulowitzki.

Swinging a scorching bat since the All-Star break, Diaz is batting .372 (16-for-43) with four doubles and six home runs in his last dozen games. While he has not aided a minuscule 3.8 walk percentage by drawing one walk during this stretch, he also has not struck out since July 29. The free swinger is thus able to maintain a decent batting average (.261) despite an ugly .293 on-base percentage. Only 13 fantasy-eligible shortstops-seven of whom primarily play another position-have gone deep more often, so his power will play in a deep five-by-five league.

David Freese (3B – PIT): 3 Percent Owned
An injury to Josh Bell has allowed the Pirates the opportunity to upgrade. Before going on the disabled list with a side injury, the starting first baseman was batting .266/.347/.402 with six home runs. Freese, relegated to the short end of a platoon with Colin Moran, is hitting a healthier .289/.351/.468 with eight long balls in 211 plate appearances. One would logically attribute optimal usage to his strong results, but the 35-year-old brandishes a .356 wOBA and five of those long balls against right-handed pitchers.

Freese would have stayed busy last week even if Bell did not get hurt. The Pirates played three of five tilts against southpaws, and the veteran sat out Sunday’s game against righty John Gant for Jose Osuna, who entered the day with zero extra-base hits and a minus-19 wRC+ versus righties. The Pirates may stick to their youngsters when Bell returns, but take a short-term bet on Freese. Following a three-game series at Coors Field, Pittsburgh faces two feeble lefties (Andrew Suarez and Derek Holland) at San Francisco. Embroiled in a heated playoff rush after acquiring Chris Archer and Keona Kela, perhaps the club will keep riding the hot hand.

Phillip Ervin (OF – CIN): 1 Percent Owned
Days after Jesse Winker suffered a shoulder injury requiring season-ending surgery, the Reds nonetheless traded Adam Duvall. With Billy Hamilton manning center and Scott Schebler occupying right, the right-handed masher had little place in their plans beyond being a platoon bat and pinch hitter. Their current outfield is wide open, however. Out since July 18 with his own shoulder injury, Schebler was sent home from his rehab assignment on Friday because of a setback.

With both corner spots vacated, Ervin has seized the opportunity. The 26-year-old has batted .308/.371/.436 over 89 plate appearances with 11 hits (five extra-base knocks) over his last seven starts. Although he’s still sharing the playing time with Mason Williams, Brandon Dixon, and Preston Tucker, the 5’10” righty has started at the second or fifth spot in each of the last three days.

Although he has accrued just one homer and steal a piece, Ervin is a burner who swiped 36 bags in 2016 and 27 last year. He also tallied double-digit long balls in each of the last three seasons, The .254 career minor league hitter won’t maintain a .397 BABIP on the grand stage, but deep-league backers will happily trade some average points for power and speed batting before or behind Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Scooter Gennett.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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