One of the highlighted pitchers in this week’s Pitchers to Target in Deep Leagues piece is higher owned than I tend to talk about. However, this pitcher has been an enormous disappointment this year and is owned in just a few ticks over half of Yahoo! leagues and on less than half of ESPN rosters. The advanced metrics paint a prettier picture for him, and he should be close to universally owned, so I’ve opted to squeeze him into this week’s piece. The highest ownership rate at either Yahoo! or ESPN for the other hurlers is 25%, thus, the other starting pitchers easily fit the spirit of the article.
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Luis Castillo (CIN): Yahoo! – 55%, ESPN – 38%
It’s been a less than stellar sophomore year for a popular draft day target of many gamers. This pundit was a big fan of Castillo’s entering the year, but his 4.98 ERA leaves a lot to be desired. The underlying metrics are more promising, however, and suggest he’s been rather unlucky. Strand rate issues and homer problems have created a sizable disconnect between his ERA and his advanced metrics such as his 4.44 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, and 4.05 SIERA, per FanGraphs, and 4.04 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus. Sure, his advanced metrics would leave him short of pre-season expectations, too, but they also illustrate the potential for him to pitch better down the stretch if his bad luck normalizes.
The 25-year-old righty’s fastball is coming in a couple ticks lower on average than last year, but he’s still sitting in the mid-90s, which is elite velo. He also still has a nearly 10-mph gap in average velocity between his fastball and changeup. The second-year big-leaguer’s 22.4% K% is a pinch above the league average of 22.2%, and his 7.5% BB% is a little better than the league average of 8.5%, but his sparkling plate discipline numbers suggest room for growth in the strikeout department. He’s coaxed a 33.0% SwStr% that’s better than the league average of 30.6%, and his 14.0% SwStr% is tied for the fifth highest among qualified pitchers this season. The two pitchers he’s tied with in swinging strike percentage are Carlos Carrasco and Gerrit Cole, and they have strikeout percentages of 27.1% and 35.3%, respectively. This isn’t to say Castillo’s strikeout rate should match those sported by Carrasco and Cole, but they do showcase the fact Castillo’s average-ish strikeout rate is an outlier relative to the other two qualified pitchers posting a 14.0% SwStr% thus far this year, and my money would be on Castillo punching out more batters as the year progresses.
Castillo has settled into a decent groove of late, and it appears the regression process is already under way. In five starts spanning 28.0 innings since July 2, he has a 2.25 ERA (2.38 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, and 3.63 SIERA), 1.04 WHIP, 3.6% BB%, 22.7% K%, 34.3% O-Swing%, and 15.1% SwStr%. Castillo should be viewed as a top-50 starting pitcher the remainder of the year with SP2/SP3 upside.
Joey Lucchesi (SD): Yahoo! – 25%, ESPN – 18%
The shine has worn off of Lucchesi’s start to his rookie campaign, and he’s been cast to the waiver wire in many leagues, as his ownership percentages reflect. He remains a viable deep-league option and streamer who calls a pitcher-friendly park home, though. The southpaw hit the disabled list in the middle of May, and was roughed up shaking off the rust in his first start back on June 20. Since that rough first start back off of the disabled list, he’s been a completely acceptable pitching option. In six starts spanning 28.0 innings since June 25, he has a 3.54 ERA (4.13 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, and 4.08 SIERA), 1.21 WHIP, 9.1% BB%, 22.3% K%, and 51.9% GB%. It’s a bit concerning he has just a 22.3% O-Swing% during that six-game stretch, but his plate discipline numbers have bounced around from start to start during those six games. Overall, he’s pitched well enough to be a streamer in 12-team mixers and find a home on squads in 14-team mixers or deeper leagues. Looking ahead, his next start is at the Cubs on Saturday. The matchup isn’t ideal with the Cubs ranking tied for sixth in wRC+ (105) against lefties, but if the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, he’s usable. After that, he projects to get the Phillies in San Diego and then the Angels in San Diego, both plus matchups for him.
Max Fried (ATL): Yahoo! – 7%, ESPN – 8%
Fried returns to this piece after appearing here at the beginning of the month. The book remains the same on Atlanta’s southpaw. He’s walked three or more batters in all four of his starts this year, and he’s yet to complete seven full frames. He’s also struck out six or more batters in three of those turns. Fried has walked a tight rope around the free passes, and he’s surrendered one earned run or less in three of his four starts. His one bad turn in the four does illustrate the risk with him, though. In that bad start in Milwaukee, he coughed up four earned runs on four hits, three walks, and one strikeout in three innings. If he’s not striking batters out to offset his free passes, things can get ugly.
Perhaps Fried should get a partial pass for his lone bad start on July 5. He hit the disabled list after that start with a blister on his middle finger. He made two solid rehab starts at Triple-A and Double-A, respectively, and held his opponent to just one run on two hits, three walks, and seven strikeouts in five innings in his first start back from the DL on July 28. The southpaw has a juicy matchup on tap next with the Mets at Citi Field on Friday. The Mets rank 29th in wRC+ (79) against southpaws this year with a 25.8% K%, and they rank dead last in wRC+ (78) at home with a 23.9% K%. Fried’s streamable in leagues as shallow as 10-team mixers, and he’s ownable in 12-team mixers or larger on teams that can stomach the potential for WHIP damage in exchange for punchouts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
