A pair of familiar faces from last week’s piece are back this week. The first repeat visitor might be in this piece for the final time, as his ownership rate is trending upward. There is a fresh face this week. Furthermore, I’ve changed my opinion of a prospect arm for re-draft league value who I discussed over the All-Star break.
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Tyler Glasnow (TB): Yahoo! – 27%, ESPN – 20%
It’s not an exaggeration to say Glasnow’s pitched like a stud through his first three starts with the Rays. They’ve been careful in building up his pitch count after he’d spent the entire season in the bullpen for the Pirates. As a result, he’s pitched just 12 innings in his three starts with Tampa Bay. Boy oh boy, they’ve been a brilliant dozen innings. Among starters who’ve thrown a minimum of 10 innings over the last 30 days, Glasnow’s 39.5% K-BB% is the second highest behind only Chris Sale’s mark, according to FanGraphs.
Walks had been a bugaboo for Glasnow throughout his career in the Pirates organization, but he’s walked only three batters (7.0% BB%), hasn’t hit any batters, and has yet to uncork a wild pitch with the Rays. He hasn’t suddenly turned into a pitch-to-contact hurler, either. He’s tallied a jaw-dropping 46.5% K% with a silly 16.5% SwStr% in his three starts. Glasnow’s plate discipline numbers have taken a huge step forward in his brief time in Tampa Bay. He’s kicked his F-Strike% up from 52.3% to 60.5%, and his O-Swing% has swelled from 23.2% to 33.7%. The bat-missing righty was allowed to throw 79 pitches in his last start after throwing 61 in his previous start and 48 in his first start. I don’t suspect he’ll be allowed to reach 100 pitches in his next turn, but he’s not too far from having the pitch limitations lifted. He’ll face a serious challenge at Boston Saturday, but he’s a defensible start in deeper leagues if needed. Having said that, I wouldn’t fault gamers for exercising caution — I mean, Boston’s offense is looooaded. After that, he projects to get a cake walk against the Royals and then a matchup at Atlanta. Glasnow should be universally owned, as his upside is gargantuan, and he’s already started to demonstrate it with his new club.
Derek Holland (SF): Yahoo! – 16%, ESPN – 14%
Forgive Holland for his mediocre last start. As Dan Harris noted in the Fantasy Impact section of Holland’s player card, the Giants raced out to a big lead and Holland was simply tasked with filling up the zone and chewing up innings. The numbers back up the zone pounding, as his 51.5% Zone% that start was his highest in more than a month. The 31-year-old southpaw’s season started in typical Holland fashion in March/April, but he’s really turned back the clock to his best years since then. In 99.2 innings since May 2, he has a 3.52 ERA (3.80 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, and 3.95 SIERA), 1.28 WHIP, 7.9% BB%, 23.9% K%, and 11.8% SwStr%. Holland toes the rubber at the Dodgers tonight, and he’s a fine start in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers. It’s not a risk-free start despite the fact the Dodgers have been bad against lefties this year, because they’ve added Manny Machado and Brian Dozier via trade just a few weeks ago. His next two starts after tonight are mouthwatering. He draws the Mets at Citi Field before facing the Rangers at AT&T Park. He’s rosterable in leagues as shallow as 10-team mixers for those two dreamy matchups.
Trevor Richards (MIA): Yahoo! – 13%, ESPN – 13%
Richards didn’t have a banner night in Atlanta last night. He served up five earned runs on five hits, two walks, and three strikeouts in 4.1 innings. One bad start isn’t reason enough to ignore his recent work, though. Since spending May 1 through June 1 at the Triple-A level for a half-dozen starts, Richards has been quite good in his return to the parent club. In his dozen starts since his recall entering play last night, Richards had totaled 62.1 innings, a 3.61 ERA (3.29 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, and 4.22 SIERA), 1.32 WHIP, 9.2% BB%, 23.4% K%, and 10.2% SwStr%. He’d really turned things on in his five starts prior to last night’s hiccup. In that five-game stretch, he’d pitched 29.1 innings to the tune of a 1.53 ERA (2.89 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, and 3.56 SIERA), 0.92 WHIP, 8.0% BB%, 28.3% K%, and 12.9% SwStr%.
The schedule isn’t exactly favorable for his next two starts. He faces the Yankees and the Braves squad that gave him problems last night. Although, it’s worth noting he faces his next two opponents in Miami. In 44.0 innings pitched at home this year, he has a 3.27 ERA (3.73 FIP and 4.01 xFIP), 1.16 WHIP, 7.3% BB%, and 20.3% K%. Assuming he pitches on regular rest, he’ll get three easier starts after facing the Yankees and Braves. He’ll next square off with the Blue Jays in Miami, then he’ll face the Pirates in Pittsburgh, and next he’ll face the Mets in New York.
Michael Kopech (CHW): Yahoo! – 11%, ESPN – 7%
Early in the season, I touted Kopech in this piece thanks in large part to his solid control to cap off 2017 and open 2018. Then, his control abandoned him. During the All-Star break, I voiced skepticism that he’d help gamers in re-draft leagues this season — while also noting his long-term upside remained quite high. Now, I think it’s possible he’s an impact arm in September if the Pale Hose opt to give him a look. Not surprisingly, my about face has come as a result of Kopech reigning in his free passes.
In his last six starts spanning 38.0 innings, the hard-throwing righty has walked only four batters (2.7% BB%) with one hit batsman and a pair of wild pitches tossed in as well. The lack of self-inflicted damage has resulted in silly good numbers that include a 1.89 ERA (2.12 FIP), 0.95 WHIP, 2.7% BB%, and 33.3% K%. I wouldn’t add and stash him in roto leagues, but he’s a reasonable stash option for gamers in head-to-head formats looking for a potential impact arm in the fantasy playoffs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
