Another NFL week is in the books, and just like that we’ve doubled our sample size for the 2018 season. Of course, two games is hardly enough to draw too many conclusions just yet, but we’ve already witnessed plenty of surprise performances and changing workloads to alter the expectations of players we may have felt differently about entering the season. Let’s look at some notable stats and trends entering Week 3, and how they might affect your fantasy football teams moving forward.
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David Johnson is averaging just 14 touches a game, and only saw two targets in Week 2
Of this year’s consensus first-round picks not named Le’Veon Bell, the one who might be in the most trouble is Johnson. He was drafted as high as number one overall in some drafts and entered the season with some question marks — after all, he missed all but one game in 2017, had a new coaching staff following Bruce Arians’ retirement, and was on a team that wasn’t expected to be very good with a questionable offensive line.
But despite all that, few were worried about the most important thing — volume. In 2016, Johnson averaged 18.3 carries and 5.0 receptions a game, and there was little reason to expect anything different in 2018. Right?
Well, as it turns out, perhaps that bit about the coaching staff was more important than most of us realized. Johnson hasn’t come anywhere close to his past volume, averaging just 14 touches over his first two games, but the most concerning part has been his usage, or lack thereof, in the passing game.
In 2016, not only did Johnson lead all backs with 120 targets, but he also saw a whopping 559 air yards — unheard of for a running back and more than double the next highest back, Duke Johnson (228). Not only was Johnson pretty much immune to negative game scripts because of his passing game involvement, but it was a substantial part of his overall upside.
Circling back to this year, in the opening week, Johnson tallied a promising nine targets, but last week he saw a mere two, setting off alarms across fantasy circles. Sure enough, not only is Johnson not running as many routes so far this season, but he doesn’t see nearly as many air yards either. For a guy who’s stated his goal is to reach 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in a single season, that’s already looking pretty bleak.
If you’re searching for a reason to keep the glass half-full, Arizona head coach Steve Wilks has already stated the team plans to utilize Johnson more in the slot, so at least there’s hope the play-calling improves. But considering the Cardinals might be even worse than expected — they’ve accumulated a league-worst six points and 350 total yards of offense — we might be dealing with an uphill battle on multiple fronts.
If you drafted Johnson, there are a lot of red flags here, but it’s a tough pill to swallow to already sell low on your first-round pick. Given the circumstances, you still might be best served staying put and hoping things turn around. But should a worthwhile offer come to the table, don’t hesitate to take it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is your league leader in fantasy points (72.3)
Arguably the biggest surprise of the young 2018 season is none other than Fitzpatrick, who has posted the most fantasy points in all the land (72.3), and leads all quarterbacks in passing yards (819), yards per attempt (13.4), and quarterback rating (151.5) after two ridiculous outings against the Saints and Eagles. His eight passing touchdowns would also lead the way were it not for Patrick Mahomes also lighting things up with 10 of his own.
Most expected the FitzMagic to end against the Super Bowl champs last week, but after shocking the fantasy world yet again, is it time to take him seriously? Well, yes and no. A matchup against a Steelers team that just got lit up by Mahomes has all the makings of another shootout, so at least for Week 3, it’s all sunshine and rainbows for Fitzpatrick. It’s also intriguing that the Bucs continue to be noncommittal on Jameis Winston reclaiming the starting job following his four-game suspension, leaving the door open for Fitzpatrick to perhaps hold this job longer than expected.
But this is also clearly an unsustainable pace, and 35-year-old journeymen quarterbacks don’t tend to suddenly turn into Peyton Manning overnight. A tough test looms in Week 4 against Khalil Mack and the Bears that could quickly crush Fitzpatrick’s momentum. Still, given his recent performance and the weapons on this Bucs offense, there’s no reason not to take the plunge if you need a quarterback for the short-term. Just don’t get too attached, as even if Winston doesn’t overtake Fitzpatrick upon his return, one poor performance might be all it takes for the pendulum to swing the other way.
Quincy Enunwa owns a 34% target market share through two weeks
Things looked promising for Enunwa after he tallied 10 targets in Week 1, but after seeing another 11 in Week 2, it’s safe to say he’s quickly become Sam Darnold’s favorite receiver on the Jets. That’s some elite volume, trailing only Julio Jones and Michael Thomas in the early going, while on par with DeAndre Hopkins and Corey Davis. Although a mere 179 air yards and an 8.5 average depth of target likely limits his ceiling and makes him more valuable in PPR leagues, we’re surely not complaining about a guy who was likely sitting on your waiver wire last week.
Kansas City’s defense has already allowed 1,016 yards, the most in the league
It was largely assumed entering the year that Kansas City’s defense would be somewhat generous, and they’ve done little to shake that narrative after back-to-back shootouts against the Chargers and Steelers. They’re the only team to already allowed over 1,000 total yards, including 860 through the air.
Not only could this make the Chiefs a juicy matchup for opposing offenses every week, but this can only help the fantasy prospects of everyone on their offense. They’re once again looking at the highest over/under of the week against the 49ers, so expect the Mahomes hype train to only get stronger with another potential big outing.
Phillip Lindsay leads the Denver Broncos in carries (29) and rushing yards (178)
It’s safe to say that after two weeks, no one expected the top-five rushers in the league to be Matt Breida, Joe Mixon, Phillip Lindsay, Lamar Miller, and James Conner. But the biggest shocker on that list is Lindsay, who once again saw solid volume in Week 2, logging 14 rushes for 107 yards along with one reception for another four yards. He now leads the Broncos in both carries (29) and rushing yard (178) and has also seen more snaps (38%) than Royce Freeman (32%) or Devontae Booker (29%).
The needle is pointing favorably in Lindsay’s direction, but before you get too excited, there are still three backs splitting the pie here, and the Broncos have stated that they plan to go with the “hot hand” in any given week. Lindsay sure looks like the guy right now, but don’t be surprised if there is week-to-week inconsistency over the long haul.
Kenny Golladay ranks fourth overall in air yards (333)
The top four in air yards goes Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, and…Kenny Golladay? Golladay has averaged 10.5 targets with a strong 15.1 average depth of target through the first two weeks, and perhaps the breakout campaign many were hoping for last year will come to fruition in 2018.
However, with Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Theo Riddick also vying for targets, it remains to be seen if Golladay can consistently see this many targets on a regular basis, although it’s an excellent sign that he rarely leaves the field, logging 93% of the snaps thus far. Even with the competition, this is looking like an exciting player to have on your side moving forward, and he draws a promising matchup in Week 3 against a Patriots defense that just got torched by Blake Bortles for 377 yards and four touchdowns.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
