How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective. They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines.
Do not stop reading now because we will discuss six games that offer the most upside from a DFS perspective.
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Houston Texans (22.5) at New England Patriots (28.5) – Total 51
A total point line of 50 or more points is a good indicator of a high-scoring game. Vegas thinks this game will be close based on the spread. Did you know the Patriots are 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread all-time against the Texans since the franchise started in 2003? The Patriots have never lost to the Texans at home. They have gone 6-0 (2-0 in the playoffs) averaging 37 points per game. The point total has gone over in eight out of the last 10 games between these two teams.
Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson will be involved in a back and forth shootout. Brady has averaged 290.4 passing yards and 22.7 fantasy points per game over his last 28 games. Watson has a limited sample size of only seven games but averaged 242.7 passing yards and 26.3 fantasy points per game. Both are solid options at the quarterback position.
Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski are the Patriots receiving weapons to target. Gronkowski has averaged 6.8 targets and 77.3 receiving yards per game over his last 21 games. Hogan scored two touchdowns against the Texans last season. He is the top candidate to fill the void left by Brandin Cooks who also shredded the team last season to the tune of five receptions, 131 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Ryan Griffin are my preferred receiving targets on the Texans. Hopkins has averaged 10.5 targets per game over his last 31 and will continue to get fed. Fuller will continue to be used as a vertical weapon on offense. Did you know 40 percent of his receptions in Fuller’s last 24 games have been 15 yards or more from the line of scrimmage? I do like Ryan Griffin as a cheaper option at the tight end position. He is a full-time starter thanks to the release of Stephen Anderson. Griffin could see some targets if the Patriots defense sells out to stop Hopkins.
The Patriots running back to target, in my opinion, is James White. The team had difficulty running the football against the Texans last season. White is a candidate to lead the Patriots running backs in offensive snaps and routes run.
I didn't expect the Patriots to enter Week 1 with Chris Hogan, Philip Dorsett, and Cordarrelle Patterson as their top-3 WRs. RB James White could see 10+ touches in Week 1 and is underrated IMO.
— Moody (@EricNMoody) September 3, 2018
Lamar Miller is the running back to target on the Texans. He has averaged 19.1 touches over his last 31 games. Miller has little competition for touches and is likely to see opportunities in the red zone.
Cincinnati Bengals (22.75) at Indianapolis Colts (25.75) – Total 48.5
This is another high-scoring game that is expected to be close given the spread. The Colts are 8-3 in their last 11 games against the Bengals. The Bengals have won three of the last five meetings dating back to quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green’s rookie season back in 2011.
Andrew Luck was scared his shoulder would never heal https://t.co/tiISPCBHbY pic.twitter.com/k0gCBmmZRV
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 4, 2018
Andrew Luck is my preferred quarterback target in this matchup, but Dalton is also in a position to shine. The Bengals ranked 31st in the NFL with a dismal 85.4 rushing yards per game while the Colts ranked 21st with 103.8 rushing yards per game. Luck returns to the fold after missing last season due to a slow recovery from shoulder surgery. He averaged 286.4 passing yards per game from 2014 to 2016. Luck will have an opportunity to play behind an improved offensive line.
T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle are the most reliable receiving options on the Colts. Hilton has averaged 8.4 targets and 77.7 receiving yards per game over his last 63 games. Doyle led the Colts in receptions last season with 80, but success or failure for him will be defined by red zone usage.
The Bengals passing game will continue to revolve around A.J. Green. He has averaged 9.1 targets and 81.8 receiving yards over his last 54 games. John Ross will also have his opportunities this season. He and Green could go boom against the Colts unproven secondary that allowed the fifth-most passing yards in 2017. Tyler Eifert is set to return, but the risk lies in how many snaps he will play.
The Bengals upgraded offensive line could help Joe Mixon this season. All signs point to him being used as a workhorse, but Giovani Bernard is still on the roster. You can find less expensive options who will see similar or more touches in Week 1.
It is nearly impossible to trust any of the Colts running backs this week. The safest bet is Jordan Wilkins. If Marlon Mack is unable to play then he is the frontrunner to start according to ESPN Colts reporter Mike Wells. This continues to be a situation to avoid until we have more clarity.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20) at New Orleans Saints (29) – Total 49.5
This is a good example of a game that Vegas predicts will be high scoring and unbalanced. The Saints are 6-2 when favored by nine or more points. The Buccaneers are 0-7 straight and 2-4-1 against the spread in their last seven games as a road underdog. Did you know that in these two teams last 20 matchups the under hit 14 times?
#Saints release of Joniathan Williams after cutting Terrance West suggests Alvin Kamara will indeed be an opening-month workhorse.
Weeks 1-4 schedule:
Vs. #Bucs (Big favorite)
Vs. #Browns (Big favorite)
@ #Falcons (Potential shootout)
@ #Giants (Likely significant favorite)— Evan Silva (@evansilva) September 2, 2018
The Saints averaged 30.5 points per game in two games last season against the Buccaneers with the running backs averaging 121.5 rushing yards per game. Alvin Kamara will be worth every penny of his DFS salary in this matchup. Mark Ingram’s four-game suspension will allow him to be featured early in the season. Kamara averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game last season on only 12.7 touches per game. Quarterback Drew Brees and wide receiver Michael Thomas are also really good plays in this matchup.
Success or failure for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers offense in this game comes down to ball control. This is why I am high on Peyton Barber at his current salary. The struggles of rookie Ronald Jones has Barber locked into a robust workload in Week 1. Mike Evans will continue to see a high target share but faces a difficult matchup with Saints cornerback Marcus Lattimore which limits his upside. This opens the door for Chris Godwin and DeSean Jackson to be leveraged more in the passing game.
Kansas City Chiefs (22.25) at Los Angeles Chargers (25.75) – Total 48
The Chiefs are 8-0 in their last eight games against the Chargers with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. This game may not be as high scoring as the Vegas line suggests. Six of the last eight games between the Chiefs and Chargers have gone below the closing total with an average combined total of 40 points. This game is projected to be close considering the spread. Two of the Chargers five losses were at the hands of the Chiefs last season, who won 24-10 in Week 3 and 30-13 in Week 15.
The matchup with the Chargers will provide wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce an opportunity to shine, but the real value is receiver Sammy Watkins. Kareem Hunt is in line for a monster workload and will be actively involved regardless of game flow. He averaged 20.3 touches per game last season.
Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams are the Chargers receivers who should see the highest number of targets. Antonio Gates is a value at the tight end position. He is not on the field for every down at this stage of his career, but Gates will be leveraged in passing situations.
Antonio Gates posted a 10-127-1 line and led all tight ends in fantasy points during the 2 games Hunter Henry missed last season (Wk 16-17)
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 2, 2018
Chargers running back Melvin Gordon averaged 21.4 touches per game last season. He set career highs with 83 targets and 58 receptions last season, but Gordon could see even more work this season as a receiver out of the backfield. He will be involved early and often in the Chargers matchup with the Chiefs and is someone to target in DFS.
Chicago Bears (20.25) at Green Bay Packers (27.75) – Total 48
This matchup has the potential to exceed its total. These two teams have gone over the projected point total in seven of their last nine matchups with an average combined score of around 50 points. The Packers have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Pettine and new head coach Matt Nagy leads the Bears. Despite the coaching changes it is difficult to ignore that the Bears are in the midst of a nine-game losing streak to NFC North teams losing those games by an average of 10.11 points.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers remains an elite option regardless of the improvements the Bears have made to their defense. He averaged 22.6 fantasy points per game last season prior to his injury. Mitchell Trubisky can be viewed as a low-upside option in a difficult matchup on the road. He averaged 182.7 passing yards, 0.58 touchdowns, and 0.58 interceptions in 12 games last season. Better days are ahead for Trubisky with the offense being led by Nagy, but that is unlikely to come to fruition in a difficult matchup against a Packers defense that is stout at home. I anticipate that Nagy will lean heavily on Jordan Howard and the running game.
Packers wide receiver Davante Adams averaged eight targets, five receptions, and 62.7 receiving yards per game over his last 30 games. He and tight end Jimmy Graham are the preferred receiving options in this matchup. Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson and tight end Trey Burton are projected to see the most targets for the Bears. Robinson is only a few seasons removed from averaging 19 fantasy points per game on 1,400 receiving yards with Blake Bortles under center.
Packers running back Jamaal Williams is projected to see a high percentage of the carries as Aaron Jones is suspended for the first two games. Ty Montgomery’s durability issues will result in him being primarily used on third downs. Bears running back Jordan Howard averaged 18.7 touches per game last season and will continue to see a heavy workload. It remains to be seen whether he is more involved as a receiver out of the backfield this season. My biggest concern is if Howard will still be on the field if the Packers build a lead.
Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
