How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective. They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines.
Do not stop reading now because we will discuss three games that offer the most upside from a DFS perspective.
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| Time (ET) | Matchup | Odds | Projected Total |
| 1 p.m. | San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs | Chiefs -6.5 | 56.5 |
Did you know the over has hit in four of the 49ers last five games with an average combined score of 53.8? The Chiefs find themselves as 6.5-point favorites in their home opener. They are 18-6 in their last 24 home games. The Chiefs offense is currently averaging 405.5 yards and 5.5 touchdowns per game, but the team’s defense is a liability. The Chiefs defense is currently allowing 508 yards per game. The 49ers offense has had a slow start to the season averaging a pedestrian 336.5 yards per game. The matchup against the Chiefs provides them an opportunity to get back on track. Let’s analyze the quarterbacks, running backs and receivers of each team.
Quarterbacks
| Player Name | paATTS | paYDS | paTDS | paINTS | paFPOEPA |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 29.5 | 233.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.01 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 27.5 | 291 | 5 | 0 | 0.69 |
Both of these quarterbacks are viable options from a DFS perspective. Patrick Mahomes has posted positive numbers as a passer (0.69 fantasy points over expectation per pass attempt) this season. Garoppolo’s salary is the least expensive of the two quarterbacks, but both are worth deploying in lineups this weekend.
| Player Name | ruATTS | ruYDS | ruTDS | ruFPOEPA | reYDS | reTDS | reFPOEPA |
| Kareem Hunt | 17 | 62 | 0 | -0.12 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Alfred Morris | 13 | 43 | 0 | -0.45 | 16 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Matt Breida | 11 | 92 | 0.5 | 0.54 | 13 | 0 | 0.8 |
The safest bet would be to deploy second-year running back Kareem Hunt. He played 70.2 percent of the offensive snaps and has touched the football or was targeted on 45 percent of the snaps. Hunt has gotten off to a slow start this season, but this is the kind of matchup where he could get back on track. Matt Breida has earned the right for more touches, but he has only played 40 percent of the offensive snaps. This game is projected to be a shootout so Breida should be actively involved.
| Player Name | reTRGS | reRECS | reYDS | reTDS | reFPOEPA |
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 4 | 57.5 | 1 | 0.19 |
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 6 | 129.5 | 1.5 | 2.22 |
| George Kittle | 6.5 | 3.5 | 56 | 0 | -0.24 |
| Sammy Watkins | 6 | 4.5 | 60.5 | 0 | 0.19 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 3 | 39 | 0 | -0.24 |
| Dante Pettis | 3.5 | 1.5 | 48 | 0.5 | 0.92 |
Travis Kelce (211), Tyreek Hill (248), Sammy Watkins (114), and George Kittle (144) have all accumulated a high number of air yards through two games and are my preferred receiving targets. If you are looking for less expensive options that could outperform their salaries then look no further than Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin. Garcon has 166 air yards but has only been able to convert that into 78 receiving yards. If Goodwin is inactive again then Dante Pettis could see more opportunities after disappointing in Week 2.
| Time (ET) | Matchup | Odds | Projected Total |
| 1 p.m. | New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons | Falcons -3 | 53 |
Did you know the total has gone under in eight of the Falcons last nine games with an average combined score of 35.78? The Saints are 1-5 in their last six road games against division rivals. The Falcons find themselves as three points favorites at home after bouncing back offensively in Week 2. The team is averaging 370.5 yards per game offensively. The Saints offense is averaging 375 yards per game but has struggled to establish a running game. The team is only averaging 18 rushing attempts and 52.5 rushing yards per game. The Saints are near the bottom of the league in these two statistics. The team’s defense is giving up 428 yards per game. The under is worth looking into for this matchup, but the two teams still have enough firepower to be targeted in DFS. Let’s analyze the quarterbacks, running backs and receivers of each team.
Quarterbacks
| Player Name | paATTS | paYDS | paTDS | paINTS | paFPOEPA |
| Drew Brees | 40 | 341 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.15 |
| Matt Ryan | 35.5 | 261.5 | 1 | 1 | -0.09 |
Brees is my preferred target in this matchup over Matt Ryan after analyzing the DFS salaries of both players. He should be able to exploit a Falcons defense missing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Ryan struggled last season against the Saints. He averaged 254.5 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and two interceptions per game in 2017.
Running Backs
| Player Name | ruATTS | ruYDS | ruTDS | ruFPOEPA | reYDS | reTDS | reFPOEPA |
| Tevin Coleman | 12.5 | 63 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 22 | 0 | 0.13 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10.5 | 37.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 82.5 | 0.5 | 0.63 |
Both Tevin Coleman and Alvin Kamara are excellent options this week. Coleman, Breida, and Phillip Lindsay were the only running backs to rush for 100 or more yards last week. Both backs are playing a high number of offensive snaps and are seeing heavy usage. Kamara has played 79.2 percent of the offensive snaps and has touched the football or has been targeted on 37.9 percent of those snaps. Coleman, on the other hand, played 65 percent of the offensive snaps in place of injured Devonta Freeman in Week 2 and touched the football or was targeted on 48.8 percent of those snaps.
Receivers
| Player Name | reTRGS | reRECS | reYDS | reTDS | reFPOEPA |
| Michael Thomas | 15 | 14 | 134.5 | 1.5 | 0.67 |
| Julio Jones | 14 | 7.5 | 116.5 | 0 | -0.29 |
| Ted Ginn | 6.5 | 4.5 | 61.5 | 0.5 | 0.51 |
| Austin Hooper | 4.5 | 4 | 41.5 | 0.5 | 0.32 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4.5 | 3.5 | 31.5 | 0 | -0.65 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 3 | 18.5 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Calvin Ridley | 3.5 | 2 | 32 | 0.5 | 0.89 |
Hope is not a strategy. If you are planning on targeting a wide receiver in this matchup it comes down to Michael Thomas and Julio Jones. Both have seen a significant target share through two games this season, but Thomas has been more effective given the positive receiving fantasy points over expectation. Jones leads all receivers in air yards with 477. Thomas, who runs a number of his routes from the slot, has the fifth most receiving yards after the catch (95). Both of these receivers are ranked in the top three of our consensus rankings for Week 3.
The Saints and Falcons defenses have not been kind to opposing tight ends so far this season.
| Time (ET) | Matchup | Odds | Projected Total |
| 8:20 p.m. | New England Patriots at Detroit Lions | Patriots -6.5 | 52 |
The probability is high that the Patriots will cover the spread. The team is 49-24-1 against the spread following a loss. The results are even more impressive following a double-digit loss (21-6 against the spread). The Lions defense through two games is allowing 347.5 total yards and are tied with the Bills for the most points allowed (39). The Patriots have also been very successful in prime time and whenever head coach Bill Belichick has faced former assistant coaches. Let’s analyze the quarterbacks, running backs and receivers of each team.
| Player Name | Season | paATTS | paYDS | paTDS | paINTS | paFPOEPA |
| Matthew Stafford | 2018 | 49.5 | 316.5 | 2 | 2 | -0.07 |
| Tom Brady | 2018 | 37 | 255.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.13 |
Both Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford are solid options. Whoever you choose comes down to how much flexibility you have with the rest of your DFS roster given their salaries. Both the Patriots and Lions secondaries can be exploited.
Running Backs
The Patriots and Lions running backs each have favorable matchups. Both defenses have allowed a significant number of rushing yards per game. The risk revolves around which backs will see a high number of snaps and utilization.
| Name | Team | GMS | SNAPS | SNAPS/GM | SNAP % | RUSH % | TGT % | TOUCH % | UTIL % |
| Kerryon Johnson | DET | 2 | 52 | 26 | 35.4 | 25 | 17.3 | 40.4 | 42.3 |
| Theo Riddick | DET | 2 | 69 | 34.5 | 46.9 | 5.8 | 27.5 | 26.1 | 33.3 |
| James White | NE | 2 | 70 | 35 | 51.5 | 12.9 | 24.3 | 28.6 | 37.1 |
| Rex Burkhead | NE | 2 | 52 | 26 | 38.2 | 46.2 | 5.8 | 48.1 | 51.9 |
| James Develin | NE | 2 | 55 | 27.5 | 40.4 | 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 |
The one running back I would be comfortable deploying in DFS lineups this week is James White. He is averaging 10 targets per game and leads all running backs in air yards with 152. The only defense that has allowed more fantasy points to the running back position through two games than the Lions is the Cardinals.
Receivers
Rob Gronkowski continues to be a must-start if you desire to prioritize the tight end position. He has always been heavily targeted downfield by Brady and has an aDOT of 12.7 through two games. A number of the receivers from both the Patriots and Lions are great options. This includes Chris Hogan, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Kenny Golladay. It remains to be seen whether Josh Gordon will see significant snaps for New England, but it would be prudent to temper expectations. One receiver I believe to be a tremendous value is Golladay. He has seen the fourth most air yards (333) amongst all wide receivers through two games.
Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
