How can I analyze Vegas odds to create lineups and gain an edge in daily fantasy sports? That, in essence, is what this weekly column is about. The manner in which you use the information Vegas puts in circulation is a foundational aspect of many prominent DFS players. The lines provide us a line of sight of what Vegas believes in going to happen in every single NFL game. It is critical to pick up on everything that Vegas discloses and to interpret what the movement in lines mean from a fantasy football perspective. They have millions of dollars at stake. If Vegas posts a terrible line, it will get abused. They do not want to get arbitraged and as a result, Vegas is incentivized to create accurate lines.

Do not stop reading now because we will discuss two games in depth that offer the most upside from a DFS perspective. I will also provide you with four other players to target in other matchups that have high projected totals.

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The total has gone over in four of the Chiefs last five games. This also applies for the team’s last five games on the road. The Broncos, on the other hand, have seen the total go over in five of their last six games against the Chiefs. The weather is projected to not be a factor in this game. I will share five players that you should target in this matchup.

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
Mahomes is worth deploying into rosters at his current DFS salary if you plan on spending at the position. The Broncos defense is not as intimidating as it has been in the past. They are allowing the 11th most passing yards per game and nearly two passing touchdowns per game this season. The only other fantasy quarterback averaging more fantasy points per game than Mahomes (30.8) is Ryan Fitzpatrick (32.5). He has one of the highest floors and ceilings of the QBs featured in this week’s column.

Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
Kelce has the potential to finish this week as the top fantasy tight end. He has the highest floor and ceiling of anyone at the position this week including Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. Kelce is currently averaging nine targets per game and leading his position in Air Yards (300). He is worth the investment at his current salary.

Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
Hill has the upside to help you win on any given week. He is currently ranked ninth in Air Yards (377) and eighth in yards after the catch (121) on only 20 targets. The Broncos defense is more susceptible to being attacked by opposing offenses through the air. The unit has allowed only 78 rushing yards per game through three games. This is a game where Mahomes will target Hill early and often in order to threaten the Broncos defense vertically.

Sammy Watkins (WR – KC)
Watkins has the second most receiving yards (155) and targets (15) on the Chiefs over the last two weeks. He is an excellent WR3 or flex option at his current salary depending on how you spend at the other positions. Watkins can provide you with a high ceiling but does have a single-digit floor from a fantasy points perspective.

Demaryius Thomas (WR – DEN)
Thomas (14) and Sanders (11) are currently seeing similar target volume through three games. Sanders has been more productive this season when looking at fantasy points, but Thomas has seen more Air Yards and has a higher WOPR or Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR takes a receiver’s target share and share of team Air Yards and combines them in a way that best predicts fantasy points. Thomas will boom sooner rather than later and it is a good chance it takes place this week against the Chiefs defense. This unit is tied for first with the Buccaneers defense for allowing the most passing yards (362.7) per game this season.

 
The point total has gone over in the Bengals last four games. The Week 4 matchup against the Falcons provides another opportunity for that trend to continue. The Falcons defense is reeling from multiple season-ending injuries including their starting middle linebacker and two safeties. The unit is allowing the seventh most passing yards per game (276) and the eighth most points per game (28.3). I will share four players that you should target in this matchup.

Andy Dalton (QB – CIN)
It is easy to focus on the interceptions when evaluating Dalton’s stat line last week. He has averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game. This is a matchup that Dalton can exploit given his receiving weapons that include A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Eifert and running back Giovani Bernard.

A.J. Green (WR – CIN) and Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
Green has 25 targets so far this season and could meet or exceed his per game average given the state of the Falcons secondary. Tyler Boyd is not far behind Green with 21 targets, but actually has more Air Yards than Green entering Week 4. Both wide receivers are great options and have high floors and even higher ceilings. It would be prudent to monitor Green’s practice status throughout the week to determine which route to go from a DFS perspective.

Giovani Bernard (RB – CIN)
The absence of Joe Mixon allowed Bernard to be used as a workhorse last week. He played 87.7 percent of the offensive snaps and touched the football or was targeted on 36.8 percent of them. So far this season Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey and Saints running back Alvin Kamara combined for 29 receptions and 226 receiving yards against the Falcons. It’s imperative that the Bengals attack the Falcons offensively using Bernard as a receiver out of the backfield. He has a high floor and a tournament-winning ceiling given Bernard’s DFS salary.

Quick Hits

Alex Collins (RB – BAL)
The Steelers and Ravens have a projected point total of 51 with the Steelers as favorites. This matchup between these two teams does not have a history of high point totals according to Pro Football Reference. The Ravens defense is currently leading the NFL in yards allowed per play (4.3). Quarterback Joe Flacco has averaged a QBR of 42.6 in his last six games against the Steelers. The Steelers defense is allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game (122.3) entering Week 4. All these signs point to Ravens running back Alex Collins being given as many touches as he can handle to attack the Steelers defense.

Odell Beckham (WR – NYG), Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG), and Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
The Saints and the Giants have a projected point total of 50 points. The over has been hit in four of the last five matchups between these two teams. The only other defenses allowing more total yards than the Saints (421) through three games are the Buccaneers (433.3) and the Chiefs (477). The Giants have the offensive weapons and a creative play-caller in head coach Pat Shurmur to keep up with the Saints. Beckham and Shepard are particularly attractive this week due to the matchup and the absence of tight end Evan Engram. This will open up more targets. Barkley has accumulated 100 or more total yards in three straight games and has played a high number of snaps. He has played 71 percent of the snaps this season and has touched the football or been targeted on 50 percent of them. All three players provide you with a high floor and an even higher ceiling at home against the Saints.

Do you agree or disagree? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!

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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.